Abstract: Pollution-intensive manufacturing industries play an important role in the economic development of the Middle and Lower Yangtze River economic belt. This paper selected 83 prefecture-level cities in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River economic belt as the units, analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of the polluting manufacturing industries from 2005 to 2015, conclusions are as follows:①The pollution-intensive manufacturing industries had been declining in the downstream area, while increasing in the middle reaches. As for the spatial pattern, the pollution-intensive industries had spread from Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou to the middle reaches of Anhui, Jiujiang, Jingzhou and Changsha.②Environmental regulation and upgrading of industrial structure are the main driving forces for the evolution of the spatial pattern of polluting manufacturing in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Economic development and government regulation have important effects on promoting the spatial agglomeration of pollution-intensive manufacturing. There are negative correlations between traditional industry location factors such as factor cost, infrastructure and market factors.③Level of economic development, government regulation, and innovation capability are the main pulling forces for the agglomeration of the pollution-intensive manufacturing in the middle reaches of the region. Environmental regulations, industrial structure upgrading, economic development, government regulation and innovation capabilities have an obvious effect on the attenuation of the pollution-intensive manufacturing in the lower reaches, especially the regional economic integration of the Yangtze River Delta and the forced effect of environmental regulation.

摘要： 长江经济带是我国经济发展的关键地区，污染型制造业在长江中下游经济发展中占有重要地位。选取83个直辖市、地级市、州为研究对象，对 2005-2015年污染型制造业格局的时空动态特征及其影响因素进行分析，得出如下结论 ①时序变化特点表现为污染型制造业在下游地区呈衰减趋势的同时，中游却呈现大幅增长趋势；空间格局总体呈现出由沪宁杭沿长江向安徽皖江城市带、九江、荆州、长沙等中游地区扩散的态势；②环境规制、产业结构升级是长江经济带中下游地区污染型制造业空间格局演变的主要驱动力。经济发展和政府调控对污染型制造业空间集聚具有重要拉动作用。要素成本、基础设施、市场因素等传统产业区位因素呈负相关关系；③分地区看，经济发展水平、政府调控和创新能力是中游地区污染型制造业集聚的主要拉力，环境规制、产业结构升级、经济发展、政府调控和创新能力对下游地区污染型制造业的衰减具有明显推动作用，特别是长三角区域经济一体化以及环境规制的倒逼作用具有重要的牵引作用。