Abstract:

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is widely regarded as one of the most serious geopolitical crises in Europe after the Cold War. It not only caused a large number of casualties in both countries but also affected the whole world, causing complex games among China, the U.S., Europe and Russia, promoting the world's political and economic division and accelerating the deglobalization. Therefore, it may become a watershed in the evolution of the global power pattern after the Cold War. In this context, it is increasingly necessary and urgent to comprehensively analyze and judge the realistic nature and development trend of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Napoleon Bonaparte once said that the political nature of all power is embedded in its geographical location. This paper uses the classical geopolitical theory—Halford Mackinder's Heartland theory to analyze the geographical dynamic mechanism and temporal- Spatial patterns of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, to help understand the geopolitical security risks and challenges faced by China in the complex situation. Based on reviewing the core content of Mackinder's Heartland theory, this paper examines the influence of Heartland theory on the geopolitical thought and strategic practice of Russia and the U.S..Finally, it analyzes the particularity of Ukraine's geographical position in the Heartland and its encounter and situation in the East-West powers game. This paper points out that, on the surface, the Russia-Ukraine conflict took place between the two East Slavic countries with significant differences over historical issues. However, its essence is the general outbreak of structural contradictions formed by the long-term confrontation between Russia and NATO.It results from squeesing and collision with each other between the two geopolitical plates of the land power in the Heartland and the sea power in the Rimland. Ukraine, located at the junction of the Heartland and the Rimland, has thus fallen victim to the geopolitical struggle of the great powers.

Key words: Heartland, Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO expansion, Eurasianism, Halford Mackinder

摘要：

俄乌冲突被广泛认为是冷战后欧洲最严重的地缘政治危机之一，不仅造成两国大量人员伤亡，也牵动了整个世界，引起中国、美国、欧盟和俄罗斯之间的复杂博弈，推动世界政治经济分裂和去全球化加速，因而可能成为冷战后全球势力格局演变的一道分水岭。本文运用经典地缘政治理论——麦金德的“心脏地带”理论来分析这场冲突的地理动力机制及时空规律，以助于认清复杂变局中中国面临的地缘安全风险和挑战。文章在回顾“心脏地带”理论核心要义的基础上，分别考察了该理论对俄罗斯和美国地缘政治思想和地缘战略实践的影响，最后分析了乌克兰在“心脏地带”中地理位置的特殊性及其在东西方力量博弈中的遭遇和处境。文章指出，从表面看，俄乌冲突发生于因历史问题分歧严重的两个东斯拉夫国家之间，但它的实质却是俄罗斯与北约长期对峙形成的结构性矛盾的总爆发，是“心脏地带”陆权力量与“边缘地带”海权力量两大板块相互挤压和对撞的结果，位于“心脏地带”与“边缘地带”结合部的乌克兰因此沦为大国地缘争斗的牺牲品。

关键词: 心脏地带, 俄乌冲突, 北约东扩, 欧亚主义, 哈尔福德·麦金德