Abstract:

In recent years, Angola has become more and more prominent in global oil market and thus attract international attention. Based on the data of proved reserves and production during 1981-2020 worldwide, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of Angola's crude oil resources, production and corresponding changes of global status are analyzed with boxplots. Then the impact mechanism of Angola's oil industry development is explored. The conclusions are as follows: (1) Angola's crude oil proved reserve generally fluctuated, rose and declined. Angola's reserve production ratio (R/P ratio) fluctuated first and then stabilized with time. The proved reserves of crude oil are a small part of the total crude oil resources and mostly concentrated in the offshore areas of lower Congo Basin and Kwanza basin at present. (2) Affected by proved reserves, Angola's crude oil production had four stages: slow rise, rapid rise, stability maintenance and decline. With time, the block putting into production is pushed from shallow water to deep water and then to ultra deep water. However, Angola's oil industry refinery capacity has only developed a little meanwhile always does not match crude oil production. (3) The global status of Angola's proved reserves is stable. The R/P radio has reduced. While the global status of oil production has improved. (4) Abundant crude oil resource provides foundation for Angola's export-oriented oil industry. The investment structure under the influence of economic structure provides conditions for its formation. And international environmental factors provide impetus for its development.

Key words: Angola, crude oil resource, crude oil production, spatiotemporal variation, boxplot

摘要：

近年来，安哥拉在全球石油市场中表现越来越突出，引起国际关注。以1981—2020年世界石油探明储量和产量等数据为基础，利用箱线图等方法分析安哥拉原油资源和生产时空演变特征及其在全球石油格局中的地位变化，并探讨安哥拉石油工业发展的影响机制。得到结论如下：（1）安哥拉原油探明储量总体呈现波动-上升-下降的特征，储采比随时间推移先波动后稳定。当前探明储量集中在刚果盆地和宽扎盆地近海地区。（2）受探明储量影响，安哥拉原油生产呈缓慢上升、飞速上升、保持平稳、趋于下降四个阶段。投产区块由浅水区向深水区再向超深水区推进。但原油加工能力始终有限，与原油生产水平不匹配。（3）安哥拉在全球的储油地位表现稳健，产油潜力地位有所下降，产油地位显著提升。（4）丰富的原油资源为安哥拉原油出口型石油工业提供了基础，在经济结构影响下形成的投资结构为原油出口型石油工业的形成提供了条件，而国际环境因素又为其发展提供了推动力。

关键词: 安哥拉, 原油资源, 原油生产, 时空演变, 箱线图