World Regional Studies ›› 2024, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (6): 116-127.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.06.20220196
Jiangjiang KANG1(), Yuemin NING2
Received:
2022-03-22
Revised:
2022-10-10
Online:
2024-06-15
Published:
2024-06-28
作者简介:
康江江(1989—),男,助理研究员,博士,研究方向为城市地理与地方产业发展,E-mail:jjkang@sass.org.cn。
基金资助:
Jiangjiang KANG, Yuemin NING. The evolution and influencing factors of specialized agglomeration of leading industries in the Yangtze River Delta region[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(6): 116-127.
康江江, 宁越敏. 长三角地区主导产业专业化集聚演变与影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(6): 116-127.
变量类型 | 变量名称 | 定义/ 单位 | 最大值 | 最小值 | 均值 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
因变量 | Ln(SCI) | 专业化集聚指数 | 6.17 | -20.72 | -7.06 | |
自变量 | 地方化 变量 | Ln(Market size) | 消费品零售总额/10亿元 | 7.32 | 0.14 | 3.57 |
Ln(Wage) | 在岗职工平均工资/元 | 11.28 | 8.26 | 9.95 | ||
Ln(Land price) | 招标、拍卖或挂牌出售土地的平均价格/ (万元/公顷) | 9.07 | -0.13 | 6.4 | ||
SEDZ | 省级以上开发区数量/个 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | ||
城市化变量 | Ln(Urban size) | 户籍城镇人口规模/万人 | 5.530 | -0.003 | 2.740 | |
Urbanization rate | 非农人口总数/人口总数/% | 100 | 4.31 | 40.20 | ||
全球化变量 | Forcapital | 外资企业资产/总资产/% | 100 | 0 | 6.39 | |
Exports proportion | 出口交货值/销售总产值/% | 100 | 0 | 18.81 | ||
控制变量 | Ln(GDP) | 国内生产总值/亿元 | 8.77 | 0.23 | 4.51 | |
Ln(Investment) | 固定资产投资/亿元 | 7.43 | -20.72 | 3.69 | ||
Ln(MED) | 制造业从业人口数量/县域行政区划面积/ (人/km2) | 8.75 | -1.22 | 3.85 | ||
Ln(MS) | 县域制造业从业人数/企业数量 | 7.49 | 3.79 | 5.40 |
Tab.1 Description of major variables
变量类型 | 变量名称 | 定义/ 单位 | 最大值 | 最小值 | 均值 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
因变量 | Ln(SCI) | 专业化集聚指数 | 6.17 | -20.72 | -7.06 | |
自变量 | 地方化 变量 | Ln(Market size) | 消费品零售总额/10亿元 | 7.32 | 0.14 | 3.57 |
Ln(Wage) | 在岗职工平均工资/元 | 11.28 | 8.26 | 9.95 | ||
Ln(Land price) | 招标、拍卖或挂牌出售土地的平均价格/ (万元/公顷) | 9.07 | -0.13 | 6.4 | ||
SEDZ | 省级以上开发区数量/个 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | ||
城市化变量 | Ln(Urban size) | 户籍城镇人口规模/万人 | 5.530 | -0.003 | 2.740 | |
Urbanization rate | 非农人口总数/人口总数/% | 100 | 4.31 | 40.20 | ||
全球化变量 | Forcapital | 外资企业资产/总资产/% | 100 | 0 | 6.39 | |
Exports proportion | 出口交货值/销售总产值/% | 100 | 0 | 18.81 | ||
控制变量 | Ln(GDP) | 国内生产总值/亿元 | 8.77 | 0.23 | 4.51 | |
Ln(Investment) | 固定资产投资/亿元 | 7.43 | -20.72 | 3.69 | ||
Ln(MED) | 制造业从业人口数量/县域行政区划面积/ (人/km2) | 8.75 | -1.22 | 3.85 | ||
Ln(MS) | 县域制造业从业人数/企业数量 | 7.49 | 3.79 | 5.40 |
模型/自变量 | SAR model | SEM model | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SIC-17 | SIC-36 | SIC-39 | SIC-17 | SIC-36 | SIC-39 | |
Ln(Market size) | -0.240 (-0.56) | 0.445 | -1.224** | 0.383 | 0.437 | -1.216** |
(0.82) | (-2.27) | (0.85) | (0.81) | (-2.24) | ||
Ln(Wage) | -0.875* | -0.323 | 0.206 | -0.414 | -0.341 | 0.107 |
(-1.61) | (-0.47) | (0.30) | (-0.67) | (-0.49) | (0.15) | |
Ln(Land price) | -0.100 | -0.435** | -0.479** | -0.161 | -0.444** | -0.456** |
(-0.58) | (-1.99) | (-2.17) | (-0.68) | (-2.00) | (-1.98) | |
SEDZ | 1.336** | -0.460 | -1.137** | 1.290** | -0.451 | -1.101** |
(2.29) | (-0.74) | (-2.36) | (2.22) | (-0.72) | (-2.27) | |
Urban rate | -0.039* | -0.022 | 0.088*** | -0.0344 | -0.022 | 0.087*** |
(-1.85) | (-0.81) | (3.25) | (-1.59) | (-0.80) | (3.19) | |
Ln(Urbanization size) | -0.551 | 2.501** | -0.670 | -0.615 | 2.461** | -0.686 |
(-0.64) | (2.28) | (-0.61) | (-0.72) | (2.24) | (-0.63) | |
Forcapital | 0.016* | 0.022** | 0.010 | 0.024*** | 0.022** | 0.009 |
(1.96) | (2.03) | (1.24) | (2.98) | (2.01) | (1.15) | |
Exports proportion | 0.029*** | 0.052*** | 0.035*** | 0.028*** | 0.052*** | 0.035*** |
(3.76) | (3.83) | (3.41) | (3.71) | (3.83) | (3.40) | |
Ln(GDP) | 0.051 | -1.222*** | -0.163 | -0.377 | -1.204*** | -0.175 |
(0.14) | (-2.75) | (-0.36) | (-1.01) | (-2.70) | (-0.39) | |
Ln(Investment) | -0.031 | -0.099 | -0.379** | 0.003 | -0.091 | -0.363** |
(-0.26) | (-0.65) | (-2.46) | (0.02) | (-0.59) | (-2.35) | |
Ln(MED) | 3.543*** | 3.191*** | 3.771*** | 3.621*** | 3.227*** | 3.896*** |
(12.19) | (9.01) | (10.64) | (11.68) | (9.03) | (10.57) | |
Ln(MS) | -0.802*** | -1.267*** | 0.099 | -1.770*** | -1.298*** | 0.020 |
(-2.71) | (-3.36) | (0.26) | (-3.99) | (-3.38) | (0.05) | |
rho | 0.398*** | 0.018 | 0.031 | |||
(0.03) | (0.043) | (0.73) | ||||
lambda | 0.455 | 0.03 | 0.070 | |||
(0.037) | (0.045) | (1.54) | ||||
Log-likelihood | -3 435.35 | -3 709.25 | -3 712.62 | -3 447.44 | -3 709.1 | -3 711.72 |
AIC | 6 898.70 | 7 446.5 | 7 553.25 | 6 922.88 | 7 446.2 | 7 451.43 |
BIC | 6 970.51 | 7 518.3 | 7 525.06 | 6 994.69 | 7 518.0 | 7 523.24 |
r2 | 0.29 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
Tab.2 The estimation results of leading manufacturing based on Spatial Panel Data Model
模型/自变量 | SAR model | SEM model | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SIC-17 | SIC-36 | SIC-39 | SIC-17 | SIC-36 | SIC-39 | |
Ln(Market size) | -0.240 (-0.56) | 0.445 | -1.224** | 0.383 | 0.437 | -1.216** |
(0.82) | (-2.27) | (0.85) | (0.81) | (-2.24) | ||
Ln(Wage) | -0.875* | -0.323 | 0.206 | -0.414 | -0.341 | 0.107 |
(-1.61) | (-0.47) | (0.30) | (-0.67) | (-0.49) | (0.15) | |
Ln(Land price) | -0.100 | -0.435** | -0.479** | -0.161 | -0.444** | -0.456** |
(-0.58) | (-1.99) | (-2.17) | (-0.68) | (-2.00) | (-1.98) | |
SEDZ | 1.336** | -0.460 | -1.137** | 1.290** | -0.451 | -1.101** |
(2.29) | (-0.74) | (-2.36) | (2.22) | (-0.72) | (-2.27) | |
Urban rate | -0.039* | -0.022 | 0.088*** | -0.0344 | -0.022 | 0.087*** |
(-1.85) | (-0.81) | (3.25) | (-1.59) | (-0.80) | (3.19) | |
Ln(Urbanization size) | -0.551 | 2.501** | -0.670 | -0.615 | 2.461** | -0.686 |
(-0.64) | (2.28) | (-0.61) | (-0.72) | (2.24) | (-0.63) | |
Forcapital | 0.016* | 0.022** | 0.010 | 0.024*** | 0.022** | 0.009 |
(1.96) | (2.03) | (1.24) | (2.98) | (2.01) | (1.15) | |
Exports proportion | 0.029*** | 0.052*** | 0.035*** | 0.028*** | 0.052*** | 0.035*** |
(3.76) | (3.83) | (3.41) | (3.71) | (3.83) | (3.40) | |
Ln(GDP) | 0.051 | -1.222*** | -0.163 | -0.377 | -1.204*** | -0.175 |
(0.14) | (-2.75) | (-0.36) | (-1.01) | (-2.70) | (-0.39) | |
Ln(Investment) | -0.031 | -0.099 | -0.379** | 0.003 | -0.091 | -0.363** |
(-0.26) | (-0.65) | (-2.46) | (0.02) | (-0.59) | (-2.35) | |
Ln(MED) | 3.543*** | 3.191*** | 3.771*** | 3.621*** | 3.227*** | 3.896*** |
(12.19) | (9.01) | (10.64) | (11.68) | (9.03) | (10.57) | |
Ln(MS) | -0.802*** | -1.267*** | 0.099 | -1.770*** | -1.298*** | 0.020 |
(-2.71) | (-3.36) | (0.26) | (-3.99) | (-3.38) | (0.05) | |
rho | 0.398*** | 0.018 | 0.031 | |||
(0.03) | (0.043) | (0.73) | ||||
lambda | 0.455 | 0.03 | 0.070 | |||
(0.037) | (0.045) | (1.54) | ||||
Log-likelihood | -3 435.35 | -3 709.25 | -3 712.62 | -3 447.44 | -3 709.1 | -3 711.72 |
AIC | 6 898.70 | 7 446.5 | 7 553.25 | 6 922.88 | 7 446.2 | 7 451.43 |
BIC | 6 970.51 | 7 518.3 | 7 525.06 | 6 994.69 | 7 518.0 | 7 523.24 |
r2 | 0.29 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
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