Abstract:

The Northern Indian Ocean is an important sea route connecting China with South Asia, North Africa and Europe, which is of great significance for guaranteeing China's energy security and supply chain stability, and since the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road initiative was put forward, the Northern Indian Ocean waterway has been developing rapidly. This paper portrays the spatial and temporal variations in the hotspots of shipping activity trajectories over the past ten years of the "Maritime Silk Road" initiative, as well as the changes in the China-North Indian Ocean shipping lanes and the geographic risks to the safety of maritime navigation in the North Indian Ocean, from the perspective of both temporal and spatial dimensions and by using spatial and temporal cubes and other analytical tools. The study finds that:①The maritime vessel activities in the Northern Indian Ocean show a trend of increasing and then decreasing, the ship activity trajectories of oil tankers, container ships and bulk carriers show obvious spatial and temporal clustering, and the new hotspots of ship activities appear in the Bay of Bengal and other sea areas.② The importance of the Northern Indian Ocean sea lanes in China's external shipping has been increasing since the "Maritime Silk Road" initiative was put forward, and the importance of the maritime lanes in China's external shipping has been increasing. Since the "Maritime Silk Road" initiative was put forward, the importance of the northern Indian Ocean sea route in China's foreign shipping has been rising, and China's trade exchanges with countries in South Asia and North Africa have become increasingly close; ③ The safety of China's sea lanes is influenced by multiple factors,including military, geopolitical environments and international regulations. In order to ensure the safety of sea lanes, China should strengthen political and economic cooperation with countries along the "Maritime Silk Road" Initiative through capacity building, enhance surveillance and monitoring capabilities in major sea lanes, and provide timely warnings of possible geopolitical risks.

Key words: 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, geopolitical risk, Northern Indian Ocean, shipping activities, channel hotspot

摘要：

北印度洋是连接中国与南亚、北非和欧洲等地的重要航道，对保障中国能源安全和供应链的稳定意义重大。自“21世纪海上丝绸之路”倡议提出以来，北印度洋航道得到快速发展。本文从时间和空间两个维度，使用时空立方体等分析工具，分析了“海上丝绸之路”倡议提出时所面临的地缘风险。研究发现：①北印度洋海上船舶活动呈现先增加后下降的趋势，油船、集装箱船和散货船的船舶活动轨迹呈现明显的时空集聚性，船舶活动的新增热点出现在孟加拉湾等海域；②“海上丝绸之路”的倡议提出以来，北印度洋海上通道在中国对外航运中的重要性不断上升，中国与欧洲、南亚和北非国家间的贸易往来更为密切；③中国海上航道安全受到军事、地缘环境和国际规制等的影响。为保障海上航道安全，中国应通过开展能力建设等方式，一方面加强与“一带一路”共建国家的政治经济合作，另一方面加强在主要海上通道的监控能力，及时预警可能出现的地缘风险。

关键词: 21世纪海上丝绸之路, 地缘风险, 北印度洋, 船舶活动, 航道热点