Abstract: Under the background of B & R and the Pacific & Indian Ocean Strategies, all kinds of strategy has been proposed.And the suggestions for developing the carat canal, were thought to be very important for China to break the Malacca dilemma.Then,this paper discussed it from the perspective of strategic value, risk and so on. This paper pointed out that the value has been overestimated, the strategic risk has been undervalued. And finally, the article suggested that we’d better consider the timing and the scheduling carefully, and prepare to not develop it or think obout the alternative solutions.And it has implications for other large projects,too.

摘要： 在“一带一路”与“两洋战略”背景下，基于各种目标的战略与工程被大量提出，并进行了论证。其中关于开发克拉运河的提议，被认为具有破解“马六甲困局”的重大意义。对此，本文运用VRTS分析法，从战略价值、战略风险和开发时机、开发（时序）策略四方面进行综合分析，指出该提议存在战略价值高估、战略风险低估，以及战略时机误判和战略时序安排不够合理等问题，建议暂时搁置，并探索其他可行替代方案。本文关于开发克拉运河的分析，对于其他战略项目论证也有一定参考意义。