全球水冲突问题研究进展与热点的可视化分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.05.2019383

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水冲突是发生在国家、州（省）、团体等不同利益主体之间关于水资源获取的矛盾。冷战以来，水冲突相关事件的总体烈度下降，事件数量大幅增长；与此同时，水冲突问题的研究也开始获得广泛关注，研究热度快速提升。水冲突问题关系到区域安全和可持续发展，有必要对相关研究进行梳理。为此，利用非监督机器学习、空间分析以及数据可视化方法，对国内外水冲突相关研究进行梳理，统计了相关研究的空间结构，构建了研究文献语料库，归纳了水冲突研究的主要热点议题。发现：水冲突相关研究具有明显的空间异质性，且不同的议题在时间上呈现不同的演进趋势；水冲突相关研究的主要议题包括：水冲突成因、水冲突分析方法与模型、水冲突解决机制、气候变化对水冲突的影响，以及水霸权主义与国际水法等。

关键词: 水冲突, 水资源, 流域, 自然语言处理, 研究综述

Abstract:

Water conflicts occur between countries, states (provinces), groups and other different stakeholders over the access to water. Since the end of the Cold War, the overall intensity of water conflict related events has declined, and the number of events has increased significantly. Meanwhile, researches on water conflicts has begun to gain widespread attention. This paper uses unsupervised machine learning, spatial analysis and data visualization methods to sort out the researches on water conflicts and summarizes the main topics of water conflict research. It is found that water conflict related research have obvious spatial heterogeneity, and the evolution trends of different topics in time vary; the main topics of water conflict related research include: causes, analysis methods and models, conflict resolution mechanisms, the impact of climate change, water hegemonism and international water law.

Key words: water conflict, water resources, watershed, machine learning, research review

喻子豪, 杜德斌, 刘承良, 夏启繁, 钱超峰. 全球水冲突问题研究进展与热点的可视化分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(5): 893-904.

Zihao YU, Debin DU, Chengliang LIU, Qifan XIA, Chaofeng QIAN. A literature review on water conflict[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(5): 893-904.

图/表 8

图1 1982—2019年国际水冲突相关论文数量

Fig.1 Number of papers on international water conflict related research, 1982-2019

图2 1982—2019年国际水冲突相关论文主成分聚类的研究主题注：主题1-经济政治因素分析；主题2-分析方法与模型；主题3-跨界管理失效；主题4-城乡水冲突；主题5-水冲突协议与法律；主题6-热点国家；主题7-水资源稀缺；主题8-跨部门（农业）水冲突；主题9-跨州水冲突；主题10-气候变化。

Fig.2 Document topics after principal component clustering, 1982-2019

表1 1982—2019年国际水冲突相关论文词汇-主题概率矩阵

Tab.1 Vocabulary-topic probability matrix of water conflict literature, 1982-2019

主题	1	2	3	4	5
解读归纳	经济政治因素分析	分析方法与模型	跨界管理失效	城乡冲突	水冲突协议和法律
	0.023*"conflict"	0.021*"model"	0.023*"river"	0.008*"local"	0.025*"state"
	0.015*"polit"	0.014*"data"	0.020*"basin"	0.007*"communiti"	0.013*"right"
	0.014*"resourc"	0.013*"variabl"	0.015*"region"	0.007*"citi"	0.011*"agreement"
	0.009*"environment"	0.010*"use"	0.009*"africa"	0.006*"farmer"	0.009*"law"
词汇概率	0.007*"issu"	0.009*"valu"	0.009*"resourc"	0.005*"public"	0.007*"conflict"
	0.006*"natur"	0.008*"indic"	0.008*"intern"	0.005*"land"	0.007*"negoti"
	0.006*"social"	0.008*"tabl"	0.007*"nation"	0.005*"access"	0.006*"parti"
	0.005*"econom"	0.007*"result"	0.007*"transbou"	0.005*"peopl"	0.006*"share"
	0.005*"secur"	0.006*"level"	0.006*"manag"	0.005*"area"	0.006*"treati"
主题	6	7	8	9	10
解读归纳	热点国家	水资源稀缺	跨部门（农业)	跨州	气候变化
	0.015*"countri"	0.013*"resourc"	0.013*"irrig"	0.020*"state"	0.046*"chang"
	0.010*"river"	0.012*"conflict"	0.011*"river"	0.008*"feder"	0.038*"climat"
	0.009*"israel"	0.010*"chang"	0.010*"area"	0.008*"project"	0.012*"rainfal"
	0.008*"agreement"	0.008*"scarciti"	0.009*"agricultur"	0.008*"court"	0.012*"level"
词汇概率	0.008*"syria"	0.008*"climat"	0.008*"suppli"	0.008*"right"	0.011*"averag"
	0.008*"turkey"	0.007*"variabl"	0.007*"increas"	0.007*"law"	0.011*"drought"
	0.006*"jordan"	0.007*"environm"	0.006*"flow"	0.007*"public"	0.009*"precipit"
	0.006*"cooper"	0.006*"polit"	0.006*"region"	0.006*"act"	0.008*"period"
	0.006*"case"	0.006*"countri"	0.006*"land"	0.006*"plan"	0.008*"hydrolog"

图3 1982—2019年国际水冲突相关论文的重点研究流域与国家注：本图基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS(2016)1666号的标准地图制作，底图无修改。

Fig.3 Key basins and countries in the literature, 1982-2019

图4 1982—2019年国际水冲突相关论文案例分析中的重点研究流域（前10）

Fig.4 Key basins and countries in the case studies, 1982-2019 (Top 10)

图5 1982—2019年国际水冲突相关论文研究热点的时间分布图注：各色块从上至下依次为主题1-经济政治因素分析；主题2-分析方法与模型；主题3-跨界管理失效；主题4-城乡水冲突；主题5-水冲突协议与法律；主题6-热点国家；主题7-水资源稀缺；主题8-跨部门（农业）水冲突；主题9-跨州水冲突；主题10-气候变化。

Fig.5 Theme rivers of the hot topics of water conflict literature, 1982-2019

图6 1982—2019年国际水冲突部分研究热点主题趋势统计注：左侧从上至下依次为主题10气候变化、7水资源稀缺、9跨州水冲突；右侧从上至下依次为主题3跨界管理失效、2分析方法与模型、5水冲突协议与法律。

Fig.6 Statistics of 6 hot topics of water conflict literature, 1982-2019

表2 水冲突研究常用分析方法与模型

Tab.2 Analytical methods and models

方法	功能	经典文献
定性分析框架构建	概念界定，分析框架构建	Dimitrov^[23], 2002
系统动力学仿真	冲突、决策模拟	Nandalal^[24], 2003
博弈论	冲突模拟、决策优化	Wei^[25], 2010
多属性决策支持模型	决策模拟	Wang X^[19], 2015
冲突解决模型	决策优化	Bazargan-Lari^[27], 2009
遗传算法	决策模拟	Bazargan-Lari^[27], 2009

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