世界地理研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 893-904.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.05.2019383
收稿日期:
2018-08-07
修回日期:
2019-09-18
出版日期:
2020-09-30
发布日期:
2020-09-11
通讯作者:
杜德斌
作者简介:
喻子豪(1995-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为世界经济地理,E-mail: zihao_yu@qq.com。
基金资助:
Zihao YU(), Debin DU(), Chengliang LIU, Qifan XIA, Chaofeng QIAN
Received:
2018-08-07
Revised:
2019-09-18
Online:
2020-09-30
Published:
2020-09-11
Contact:
Debin DU
摘要:
水冲突是发生在国家、州(省)、团体等不同利益主体之间关于水资源获取的矛盾。冷战以来,水冲突相关事件的总体烈度下降,事件数量大幅增长;与此同时,水冲突问题的研究也开始获得广泛关注,研究热度快速提升。水冲突问题关系到区域安全和可持续发展,有必要对相关研究进行梳理。为此,利用非监督机器学习、空间分析以及数据可视化方法,对国内外水冲突相关研究进行梳理,统计了相关研究的空间结构,构建了研究文献语料库,归纳了水冲突研究的主要热点议题。发现:水冲突相关研究具有明显的空间异质性,且不同的议题在时间上呈现不同的演进趋势;水冲突相关研究的主要议题包括:水冲突成因、水冲突分析方法与模型、水冲突解决机制、气候变化对水冲突的影响,以及水霸权主义与国际水法等。
喻子豪, 杜德斌, 刘承良, 夏启繁, 钱超峰. 全球水冲突问题研究进展与热点的可视化分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(5): 893-904.
Zihao YU, Debin DU, Chengliang LIU, Qifan XIA, Chaofeng QIAN. A literature review on water conflict[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(5): 893-904.
图2 1982—2019年国际水冲突相关论文主成分聚类的研究主题注:主题1-经济政治因素分析;主题2-分析方法与模型;主题3-跨界管理失效;主题4-城乡水冲突;主题5-水冲突协议与法律;主题6-热点国家;主题7-水资源稀缺;主题8-跨部门(农业)水冲突;主题9-跨州水冲突;主题10-气候变化。
Fig.2 Document topics after principal component clustering, 1982-2019
主题 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
解读归纳 | 经济政治因素分析 | 分析方法与模型 | 跨界管理失效 | 城乡冲突 | 水冲突协议和法律 |
0.023*"conflict" | 0.021*"model" | 0.023*"river" | 0.008*"local" | 0.025*"state" | |
0.015*"polit" | 0.014*"data" | 0.020*"basin" | 0.007*"communiti" | 0.013*"right" | |
0.014*"resourc" | 0.013*"variabl" | 0.015*"region" | 0.007*"citi" | 0.011*"agreement" | |
0.009*"environment" | 0.010*"use" | 0.009*"africa" | 0.006*"farmer" | 0.009*"law" | |
词汇概率 | 0.007*"issu" | 0.009*"valu" | 0.009*"resourc" | 0.005*"public" | 0.007*"conflict" |
0.006*"natur" | 0.008*"indic" | 0.008*"intern" | 0.005*"land" | 0.007*"negoti" | |
0.006*"social" | 0.008*"tabl" | 0.007*"nation" | 0.005*"access" | 0.006*"parti" | |
0.005*"econom" | 0.007*"result" | 0.007*"transbou" | 0.005*"peopl" | 0.006*"share" | |
0.005*"secur" | 0.006*"level" | 0.006*"manag" | 0.005*"area" | 0.006*"treati" | |
主题 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
解读归纳 | 热点国家 | 水资源稀缺 | 跨部门(农业) | 跨州 | 气候变化 |
0.015*"countri" | 0.013*"resourc" | 0.013*"irrig" | 0.020*"state" | 0.046*"chang" | |
0.010*"river" | 0.012*"conflict" | 0.011*"river" | 0.008*"feder" | 0.038*"climat" | |
0.009*"israel" | 0.010*"chang" | 0.010*"area" | 0.008*"project" | 0.012*"rainfal" | |
0.008*"agreement" | 0.008*"scarciti" | 0.009*"agricultur" | 0.008*"court" | 0.012*"level" | |
词汇概率 | 0.008*"syria" | 0.008*"climat" | 0.008*"suppli" | 0.008*"right" | 0.011*"averag" |
0.008*"turkey" | 0.007*"variabl" | 0.007*"increas" | 0.007*"law" | 0.011*"drought" | |
0.006*"jordan" | 0.007*"environm" | 0.006*"flow" | 0.007*"public" | 0.009*"precipit" | |
0.006*"cooper" | 0.006*"polit" | 0.006*"region" | 0.006*"act" | 0.008*"period" | |
0.006*"case" | 0.006*"countri" | 0.006*"land" | 0.006*"plan" | 0.008*"hydrolog" |
表1 1982—2019年国际水冲突相关论文词汇-主题概率矩阵
Tab.1 Vocabulary-topic probability matrix of water conflict literature, 1982-2019
主题 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
解读归纳 | 经济政治因素分析 | 分析方法与模型 | 跨界管理失效 | 城乡冲突 | 水冲突协议和法律 |
0.023*"conflict" | 0.021*"model" | 0.023*"river" | 0.008*"local" | 0.025*"state" | |
0.015*"polit" | 0.014*"data" | 0.020*"basin" | 0.007*"communiti" | 0.013*"right" | |
0.014*"resourc" | 0.013*"variabl" | 0.015*"region" | 0.007*"citi" | 0.011*"agreement" | |
0.009*"environment" | 0.010*"use" | 0.009*"africa" | 0.006*"farmer" | 0.009*"law" | |
词汇概率 | 0.007*"issu" | 0.009*"valu" | 0.009*"resourc" | 0.005*"public" | 0.007*"conflict" |
0.006*"natur" | 0.008*"indic" | 0.008*"intern" | 0.005*"land" | 0.007*"negoti" | |
0.006*"social" | 0.008*"tabl" | 0.007*"nation" | 0.005*"access" | 0.006*"parti" | |
0.005*"econom" | 0.007*"result" | 0.007*"transbou" | 0.005*"peopl" | 0.006*"share" | |
0.005*"secur" | 0.006*"level" | 0.006*"manag" | 0.005*"area" | 0.006*"treati" | |
主题 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
解读归纳 | 热点国家 | 水资源稀缺 | 跨部门(农业) | 跨州 | 气候变化 |
0.015*"countri" | 0.013*"resourc" | 0.013*"irrig" | 0.020*"state" | 0.046*"chang" | |
0.010*"river" | 0.012*"conflict" | 0.011*"river" | 0.008*"feder" | 0.038*"climat" | |
0.009*"israel" | 0.010*"chang" | 0.010*"area" | 0.008*"project" | 0.012*"rainfal" | |
0.008*"agreement" | 0.008*"scarciti" | 0.009*"agricultur" | 0.008*"court" | 0.012*"level" | |
词汇概率 | 0.008*"syria" | 0.008*"climat" | 0.008*"suppli" | 0.008*"right" | 0.011*"averag" |
0.008*"turkey" | 0.007*"variabl" | 0.007*"increas" | 0.007*"law" | 0.011*"drought" | |
0.006*"jordan" | 0.007*"environm" | 0.006*"flow" | 0.007*"public" | 0.009*"precipit" | |
0.006*"cooper" | 0.006*"polit" | 0.006*"region" | 0.006*"act" | 0.008*"period" | |
0.006*"case" | 0.006*"countri" | 0.006*"land" | 0.006*"plan" | 0.008*"hydrolog" |
图5 1982—2019年国际水冲突相关论文研究热点的时间分布图注:各色块从上至下依次为主题1-经济政治因素分析;主题2-分析方法与模型;主题3-跨界管理失效;主题4-城乡水冲突;主题5-水冲突协议与法律;主题6-热点国家;主题7-水资源稀缺;主题8-跨部门(农业)水冲突;主题9-跨州水冲突;主题10-气候变化。
Fig.5 Theme rivers of the hot topics of water conflict literature, 1982-2019
图6 1982—2019年国际水冲突部分研究热点主题趋势统计注:左侧从上至下依次为主题10气候变化、7水资源稀缺、9跨州水冲突;右侧从上至下依次为主题3跨界管理失效、2分析方法与模型、5水冲突协议与法律。
Fig.6 Statistics of 6 hot topics of water conflict literature, 1982-2019
方法 | 功能 | 经典文献 |
---|---|---|
定性分析框架构建 | 概念界定,分析框架构建 | Dimitrov[ |
系统动力学仿真 | 冲突、决策模拟 | Nandalal[ |
博弈论 | 冲突模拟、决策优化 | Wei[ |
多属性决策支持模型 | 决策模拟 | Wang X[ |
冲突解决模型 | 决策优化 | Bazargan-Lari[ |
遗传算法 | 决策模拟 | Bazargan-Lari[ |
表2 水冲突研究常用分析方法与模型
Tab.2 Analytical methods and models
方法 | 功能 | 经典文献 |
---|---|---|
定性分析框架构建 | 概念界定,分析框架构建 | Dimitrov[ |
系统动力学仿真 | 冲突、决策模拟 | Nandalal[ |
博弈论 | 冲突模拟、决策优化 | Wei[ |
多属性决策支持模型 | 决策模拟 | Wang X[ |
冲突解决模型 | 决策优化 | Bazargan-Lari[ |
遗传算法 | 决策模拟 | Bazargan-Lari[ |
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