数字经济缩小了城乡差距吗？——基于中介效应模型的实证检验

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.02.2020292

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

发展数字经济是当前中国加快缩小城乡差距的新机遇。在理论诠释数字经济对城乡差距影响机理的基础上，采用省级面板数据，构建数字经济衡量指标，识别了空间分异特征，并通过中介效应模型检验数字经济对城乡差距的直接效应和间接效应。研究发现：（1）2013—2017年数字经济、制造业集聚总体发展呈上升趋势，城乡差距显著缩小，但区域差异明显，呈现出由东向西递减、分布不均衡的空间格局；（2）数字经济通过发挥市场一体化效应、模块化分工效应直接地缩小了城乡差距，经由集聚经济通过发挥劳动力再配置效应、集聚效应间接地缩小了城乡差距；（3）分地区检验发现：受核心城市的虹吸强度差异影响，东中西部地区分别呈现出正向、不显著和负向的直接效应。东中部地区具有显著负向的间接效应，西部地区则由于较高制度成本阻碍生产要素跨区域流动而表现出正向的间接效应。据此，缩小城乡差距应重视缩小数字鸿沟、促进要素流动和集聚平衡等方面。

关键词: 数字经济, 集聚经济, 城乡差距, 时空演化, 中介效应

Abstract:

The development of digital economy is an opportunity for China to accelerate the narrowing of the urban-rural gap. Based on the theoretical interpretation of the impact mechanism of digital economy on urban-rural gap, this paper uses provincial panel data to build a digital economy measurement index, identifies the spatial differentiation characteristics, and tests the direct and indirect effects of digital economy on the urban-rural gap through the mediating effect model. The results show that: (1) The overall development of digital economy and manufacturing agglomeration showed an upward trend from 2013 to 2017, and the gap between urban and rural areas was significantly narrowed, but there are still obvious regional differences, showing a spatial pattern of decreasing and uneven distribution from east to west; (2) The digital economy directly narrows the urban-rural gap through the market integration effect and modular division of labor effect, and indirectly reduces the urban-rural gap by exerting the labor redistribution effect and agglomeration effect through agglomeration economy; (3) Through the regional test, it's found that the eastern, central and western regions show positive, insignificant and negative direct effects respectively, due to the different siphon intensity of the core cities. The eastern and central regions have significant negative indirect effects, while the western regions have positive indirect effects because of the high institutional cost hindering the cross regional flow of production factors. Accordingly, to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas, we should focus on reducing the digital divide, promoting the flow of factors and agglomeration balance.

Key words: digital economy, agglomeration economy, urban-rural gap, space-time evolution, mediation effect

陈鑫鑫, 段博. 数字经济缩小了城乡差距吗？——基于中介效应模型的实证检验[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(2): 280-291.

Xinxin CHEN, Bo DUAN. Has the digital economy narrowed the gap between urban and rural areas? ——Empirical test based on mediating effect model[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(2): 280-291.

图/表 8

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	单位	一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	单位
数字经济发展水平	数字化基础设施(Y1)	移动电话普及率(X1)	部/百人	数字经济发展水平	数字化产业应用(Y2)	电子商务销售额(X11)	亿元
		互联网宽带用户数(X2)	万户			有电子商务交易活动的企业数比重(X12)	%
		单位面积光缆长度(X3)	公里/平方公里			每百家企业拥有网站数(X13)	个
		每千人拥有网站数(X4)	个		数字化创新能力(Y3)	R&D 经费占地区 GDP 比重(X14)	%
		人均互联网宽带接入端口(X5)	个/人			R&D 项目数(X15)	项
		每千人拥有网页数(X6)	个			R&D 人员全时当量(X16)	人年
		每千人拥有域名数(X7)	个			专利申请数(X17)	件
	数字化产业应用(Y2)	电信业务总量(X8)	亿元			技术市场成交额（X18）	亿元
		信息传输、计算机服务和软件业就业人员(X9)	万人			普通高等学校数（X19)	个
		第三产业增加值(X10)	亿元			普通高等学校授予本专科学位数(X20）	万人

一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	单位	一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	单位
数字经济发展水平	数字化基础设施(Y1)	移动电话普及率(X1)	部/百人	数字经济发展水平	数字化产业应用(Y2)	电子商务销售额(X11)	亿元
		互联网宽带用户数(X2)	万户			有电子商务交易活动的企业数比重(X12)	%
		单位面积光缆长度(X3)	公里/平方公里			每百家企业拥有网站数(X13)	个
		每千人拥有网站数(X4)	个		数字化创新能力(Y3)	R&D 经费占地区 GDP 比重(X14)	%
		人均互联网宽带接入端口(X5)	个/人			R&D 项目数(X15)	项
		每千人拥有网页数(X6)	个			R&D 人员全时当量(X16)	人年
		每千人拥有域名数(X7)	个			专利申请数(X17)	件
	数字化产业应用(Y2)	电信业务总量(X8)	亿元			技术市场成交额（X18）	亿元
		信息传输、计算机服务和软件业就业人员(X9)	万人			普通高等学校数（X19)	个
		第三产业增加值(X10)	亿元			普通高等学校授予本专科学位数(X20）	万人

变量	代码	变量解释
城乡差距	theil	城乡收入泰尔指数
数字经济	de	数字经济发展水平
集聚经济	agg	制造业集聚区位熵
产业结构	stru	第三产业增加值/GDP
对外开放水平	trade	进出口总额/GDP
社会保障支出水平	sse	财政社会保障支出/政府财政支出
财政科教支出	fste	财政科教支出/政府财政支出
交通水平	road	公路客运量的自然对数

变量	代码	变量解释
城乡差距	theil	城乡收入泰尔指数
数字经济	de	数字经济发展水平
集聚经济	agg	制造业集聚区位熵
产业结构	stru	第三产业增加值/GDP
对外开放水平	trade	进出口总额/GDP
社会保障支出水平	sse	财政社会保障支出/政府财政支出
财政科教支出	fste	财政科教支出/政府财政支出
交通水平	road	公路客运量的自然对数

变量	观察值	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
theil	150	0.091	0.038	0.02	0.188
de	150	0.172	0.158	0.019	0.655
agg	150	0.825	0.339	0.293	1.802
stru	150	0.466	0.09	0.342	0.806
trade	150	0.276	0.312	0.018	1.462
sse	150	0.128	0.031	0.078	0.275
fste	150	0.184	0.03	0.106	0.248
road	150	10.583	0.967	8.132	11.965