海南岛户籍人口城镇化时空演变及影响因素分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.11.20220061

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2000—2018年海南岛18个市县经济社会面板数据，利用空间自相关和多元线性回归等方法，分析户籍人口城镇化水平的时空演变特征及影响因素。研究发现，2004年和2015年是海南岛户籍人口城镇化发展的两个转折点，可以分为2000—2003年、2004—2014年、2015—2018年三个阶段，整体上，海南岛户籍人口城镇化水平呈“几”字形缓慢提升；空间上，集聚特征以显著性离散分布为主，空间布局和集聚类型变化较大；户籍人口城镇化进程中，人口趋向工资待遇高、民营经济发展快、教育资源集中、环境质量优、非农就业机会多的地区。自贸港建设过程中应完善人口户籍管理、关注乡村就地城镇化、缩小城乡公共服务差距、保障居民生产生活水平，综合提高城镇化质量。

关键词: 户籍人口, 城镇化, 空间分布, 影响因素, 海南岛

Abstract:

Taking Hainan Island as a case and using the panel data of population, economics and social infrastructure from national census and public reports of the 18 cities and counties, this paper examined the spatio-temporal dynamic characteristics and its influencing factors of registered population urbanization in 2000-2018 utilized the methods of spatial autocorrelation and multi-linear regression. The results shows that, firstly, the years 2004 and 2015 are both turning points for the urbanization of Hainan's registered population, which can be divided into three stages: 2000-2003, 2004-20014, and 2015-2018. In nearly 20 years, the urbanization level of the registered population in Hainan Island increases slowly and has achieved remarkable success, each stage shows different fluctuation features due to the changes of local policies and other influencing factors;Spatially, the agglomeration features are dominated by significant discrete distribution, and the distribution pattern and agglomeration types vary greatly; Migration preferred to place with higher payment, economy well-developed, better educational level, more employment opportunities. However, either industry structure or investment was not as effective as hoped, which reflected some problems behind the urbanization growth. For example, the in-migration in Hainan Island was mainly from rural areas, they usually cannot have the same rights as registered population. During the development of the free trade port, increasing the urbanization of registered population is significantly important for improving the urbanized quality. Therefore, it is essential to enhance the management of household registration, accelerate the ability of local urbanization in rural areas, and narrow the gap between urban and rural public services to ensure the residential living standards.

Key words: registered population, urbanization, spatial distribution, influencing factor, Hainan Island

陈妍, 程叶青, 王平. 海南岛户籍人口城镇化时空演变及影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(11): 108-118.

Yan CHEN, Yeqing CHENG, Ping WANG. Analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics and influencing factors of registered population urbanization in Hainan Island[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(11): 108-118.

图/表 5

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模型设定	混合模型（OLS）	固定效应模型（FE）	随机效应模型（RE）
第三产业产值比重	0.156^***(3.196)	0.139(1.608)	0.233^***(3.687)
固定资产投资	－0.116^***(－4.441)	－0.092^***(－2.991)	－0.092^***(－3.529)
非农就业率	0.010(0.931)	0.017^**(1.983)	0.020^**(2.509)
货运量	－0.018(－0.660)	0.015(0.491)	－0.019(－0.831)
教育支出比重	－0.233^***(－2.837)	0.170^***(3.085)	0.202^***(4.085)
医院床位数	0.230^***(5.247)	－0.173^*(－1.895)	0.115^**(2.209)
造林面积	－0.026^*(－1.954)	0.039^***(3.532)	0.034^***(3.327)
平均工资	0.366^***(4.447)	0.360^***(6.114)	0.274^***(6.236)
非国有经济比重	－0.568^***(－3.608)	0.306^**(2.139)	0.093(0.672)
常数项	2.703(2.569)	－0.777(－0.876)	－1.103(－1.473)
参数联合检验		Prob(F-stat)=0	Prob(F-stat)=0
R² 检验	0.537	0.679	0.294

模型设定	混合模型（OLS）	固定效应模型（FE）	随机效应模型（RE）
第三产业产值比重	0.156^***(3.196)	0.139(1.608)	0.233^***(3.687)
固定资产投资	－0.116^***(－4.441)	－0.092^***(－2.991)	－0.092^***(－3.529)
非农就业率	0.010(0.931)	0.017^**(1.983)	0.020^**(2.509)
货运量	－0.018(－0.660)	0.015(0.491)	－0.019(－0.831)
教育支出比重	－0.233^***(－2.837)	0.170^***(3.085)	0.202^***(4.085)
医院床位数	0.230^***(5.247)	－0.173^*(－1.895)	0.115^**(2.209)
造林面积	－0.026^*(－1.954)	0.039^***(3.532)	0.034^***(3.327)
平均工资	0.366^***(4.447)	0.360^***(6.114)	0.274^***(6.236)
非国有经济比重	－0.568^***(－3.608)	0.306^**(2.139)	0.093(0.672)
常数项	2.703(2.569)	－0.777(－0.876)	－1.103(－1.473)
参数联合检验		Prob(F-stat)=0	Prob(F-stat)=0
R² 检验	0.537	0.679	0.294

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