“一带一路”倡议与新质生产力协同驱动下的中国制造业产业链韧性提升

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.03.20241106

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于中间品多样性角度，以电子信息产业链为例，选取2015—2022年省（市、区）-来源国（或地区）-时间的HS6位海关数据，刻画中国制造业产业链韧性的时空演变规律，并探究共建“一带一路”、新质生产力与中国制造业产业链韧性提升的理论逻辑。研究发现：①2015—2022年，中国电子信息产业链韧性呈下降趋势，且上、下游产业链韧性高于中游。②共建“一带一路”有利于提升中国电子信息产业链韧性，且对产业链不同环节和中、低市场化水平区域具有显著提升作用，但高市场化水平区域的提升作用并不显著。③共建“一带一路”通过加速新质生产力发展提升中国产业链韧性，该结论在纺织服装产业链中依旧稳健，但实体性要素和渗透性要素对两大产业链的中介作用存在差异。因此，需要进一步加强与“一带一路”沿线国家和地区合作，重视制造业产业链各环节韧性的差异性，优化区域布局，提升中国新质生产力与制造业产业链韧性。

关键词: 产业链韧性, 共建“一带一路”, 新质生产力, 电子信息产业链, 制造业

Abstract:

Based on the diversity of intermediate goods, taking the electronic information industry chain as an example, this paper used the HS6-digit customs data from 2015 to 2022 to describe the spatiotemporal evolution law of the resilience of China's manufacturing industry chain, and explored the theoretical logic of the Belt and Road, New Quality Productive Forces and the improvement of the resilience of China's manufacturing industry chain. The results show that: ① From 2015 to 2022, the resilience of China's electronic information industry chain showed a downward trend, and the resilience of the upstream and downstream industrial chains was higher than that of the midstream. ② The Belt and Road Initiative is conducive to improving the resilience of China's electronic information industry chain, and has a significant effect on different links and regions with medium and low marketization levels, but the improvement effect of regions with high marketization levels is not significant. ③ The Belt and Road Initiative has improved the resilience of China's industrial chain by accelerating the development of New Quality Productive Forces, which is still stable in the textile and garment industry chain. But there are differences in the intermediary role of physical factors and permeable factors on the two industrial chains. Therefore, it is necessary to further strengthen cooperation with regions along the Belt and Road, pay attention to the differences in the resilience of links of manufacturing industry chain, optimize the regional layout, and improve the resilience of China's New Quality Productive Forces and manufacturing industry chain.

Key words: industrial chain resilience, the Belt and Road Initiative, New Quality Productivity, electronic information industry chain, manufacturing industing

黄信灶, 黄敏, 踪家峰, 谢莉卿. “一带一路”倡议与新质生产力协同驱动下的中国制造业产业链韧性提升[J]. 世界地理研究, 2026, 35(3): 92-106.

Xinzao HUANG, Min HUANG, Jiafeng ZONG, Liqing XIE. Enhancing the resilience of China's manufacturing industry chain under the collaborative drive of the Belt and Road Initiative and new quality productive forces:[J]. World Regional Studies, 2026, 35(3): 92-106.

图/表 9

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变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
变量	样本量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
HHI	6 729	0.370	0.276	0.027	1
BRI	6 729	0.561	0.496	0	1
urb	6 729	0.631	0.108	0.429	0.893
lninf	6 729	7.168	1.047	4.277	9.944
lngov	6 729	8.811	0.584	7.157	10.037
lnagdp	6 729	10.856	0.391	10.158	11.797
ind	6 729	1.501	0.774	0.751	5.244
NQPF	6 729	0.112	0.108	0.015	0.659
NQPF _a	6 729	0.214	0.236	0	0.892
NQPF _b	6 729	0.161	0.202	0	1

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
变量	样本量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
HHI	6 729	0.370	0.276	0.027	1
BRI	6 729	0.561	0.496	0	1
urb	6 729	0.631	0.108	0.429	0.893
lninf	6 729	7.168	1.047	4.277	9.944
lngov	6 729	8.811	0.584	7.157	10.037
lnagdp	6 729	10.856	0.391	10.158	11.797
ind	6 729	1.501	0.774	0.751	5.244
NQPF	6 729	0.112	0.108	0.015	0.659
NQPF _a	6 729	0.214	0.236	0	0.892
NQPF _b	6 729	0.161	0.202	0	1

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
变量	HHI	HHI	HHI	HHI	HHI
BRI	-0.142^***	-0.035^***	-0.021^***	-0.041^***	-0.025^***
BRI	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.006)
urb		-0.374^***	-0.777^***	-0.422^***	-0.862^***
urb		(0.067)	(0.074)	(0.056)	(0.060)
lninf		-0.022^***	-0.082^***	-0.027^***	-0.097^***
lninf		(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.003)	(0.005)
lngov		-0.063^***	-0.019^**	-0.075^***	-0.025^***
lngov		(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.006)
lnagdp		-0.084^***	0.021	-0.079^***	0.037^**
lnagdp		(0.020)	(0.021)	(0.017)	(0.018)
ind		0.020^***	0.012^***	0.018^***	0.009^***
ind		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Constant	0.449^***	2.219^***	1.384^***	2.346^***	1.425^***
Constant	(0.005)	(0.174)	(0.183)	(0.144)	(0.150)
控制变量	NO	YES	YES	YES	YES
时间固定	NO	NO	YES	NO	YES
国家固定	NO	NO	NO	YES	YES
观察值	6 729	6 729	6 729	6 729	6 729
adj. R²	0.065	0.160	0.181	0.425	0.452

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
变量	HHI	HHI	HHI	HHI	HHI
BRI	-0.142^***	-0.035^***	-0.021^***	-0.041^***	-0.025^***
BRI	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.006)
urb		-0.374^***	-0.777^***	-0.422^***	-0.862^***
urb		(0.067)	(0.074)	(0.056)	(0.060)
lninf		-0.022^***	-0.082^***	-0.027^***	-0.097^***
lninf		(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.003)	(0.005)
lngov		-0.063^***	-0.019^**	-0.075^***	-0.025^***
lngov		(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.006)
lnagdp		-0.084^***	0.021	-0.079^***	0.037^**
lnagdp		(0.020)	(0.021)	(0.017)	(0.018)
ind		0.020^***	0.012^***	0.018^***	0.009^***
ind		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.003)
Constant	0.449^***	2.219^***	1.384^***	2.346^***	1.425^***
Constant	(0.005)	(0.174)	(0.183)	(0.144)	(0.150)
控制变量	NO	YES	YES	YES	YES
时间固定	NO	NO	YES	NO	YES
国家固定	NO	NO	NO	YES	YES
观察值	6 729	6 729	6 729	6 729	6 729
adj. R²	0.065	0.160	0.181	0.425	0.452

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
变量	HHI	HHI	HHI	第一阶段BRI	第二阶段HHI
BRI	-0.033^***	-0.022^***	-0.109^***		-0.853^***
BRI	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.018)		(0.183)
Lncity				0.042^***
Lncity				(0.008)
控制变量	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
固定效应	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
Observations	4 192	6 729	240	6 729	6 729
adj. R²	0.448	0.452	0.250	0.327
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM				25.657
Kleibergen-Paap rk Wald F				26.975