贵州乌蒙山区人口-经济-农业生态环境耦合协调关系研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.01.2019351

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

山区人地矛盾突出，其人口、经济与生态环境可持续发展存在矛盾，解决三者之间的协调发展问题，是山区生态文明建设和资源环境建设中的重点。文章选取贵州乌蒙山区人口、经济、农业生态环境相关数据，采用熵值法、耦合度、协调度等方法测度人口、经济与农业生态环境发展趋势，并进一步探究其耦合度与协调度发展特征。研究得出以下结论：①2005—2015年贵州乌蒙山区人口、经济发展总体向好，农业生态环境发展较为滞后，期间I_pop、I_eco分别提升0.259、0.487，I_agr下降0.398。②2005—2015年贵州乌蒙山区人口、经济、农业生态环境关系日益密切，协调性总体不断增强，但系统协调度明显低于耦合度，系统是一种不均衡的发展趋势。③2005—2015年贵州乌蒙山区人口、经济、农业生态环境协调性具有空间差异，大致呈东高西低，七星关、赤水和习水等县区协调度较高。④2005—2015年贵州乌蒙山区县域耦合度提升到高级耦合阶段，但多数县区仍处于初级协调阶段。

关键词: 人口, 经济, 农业生态环境, 耦合度, 协调度, 贵州乌蒙山区

Abstract:

Population, economy and agro-ecological environment are important contents for the sustainable development of mountain areas. This paper selects the data of population, economy and agro-ecological environment of Wumeng Mountain, Guizhou Province, and measures the development trend of population, economy and agro-ecological environment by entropy method, coupling degree, coordination degree, and further explores its coupling degree and coordination trend. The research draws the following conclusions: (1) Between 2005 and 2015, the population and economic development of Wumen Mountain, Guizhou Province were generally better, and the development of agro-ecological environment was lagging behind. During the period, I_pop_{and I_eco_{increased by 0.259 and 0.487 respectively, and I_agr decreased by 0.398. (2) From 2005 to 2015, the relationship between population, economy and agro-ecological environment in Wumen Mountain, Guizhou Province is becoming closer and closer, and the overall coordination is increasing, but the degree of system coordination is significantly lower than that of coupling. System development is an uneven development. (3)From 2005 to 2015, there was a spatial difference in the coordination of population, economy and agro-ecological environment in Wumen Mountain, Guizhou Province, which was generally high in the east and low in the west. The coordination levels of the Qixinguan, Chishui and Xishui were higher. (4) In 2005-2015, the coupling degree of Wumeng Mountain, Guizhou Province was upgraded to the advanced coupling stage, but most counties and districts are still in the primary coordination stage.}}

Key words: population, economy, agro-ecological environment, coupling degree, coordination, Wumeng Mountain, Guizhou Province

程东亚, 李旭东. 贵州乌蒙山区人口-经济-农业生态环境耦合协调关系研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(1): 125-135.

Dongya CHENG, Xudong LI. Research on the coupling coordination relationship between population, economy and agro-ecological environment in Wumen Mountain, Guizhou Province[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(1): 125-135.

图/表 10

图1 贵州乌蒙山区位置、海拔和主要县区

Fig.1 Location, elevation and main counties of Wumeng Mountain, Guizhou Province

表1 评价指标体系及其权重

Tab.1 Index system construction and its weights

发展指数类型	指标属性	编号	指标含义	单位	权重
人口发展指数 I_pop	贫困	I₁	农村贫困发生率	%	0.144
	教育	I₂	普通中学学校数量/人口	所/万人	0.260
	医疗	I₃	医院卫生院床数/人口	床/万人	0.596
经济发展指数 I_eco	总体特征	I₄	生产总值/人口	万元	0.191
	财政	I₅	财政支出金额/人口	万元	0.187
	投资	I₆	固定资产投资金额/人口	万元	0.255
	消费	I₇	社会零售消费总额/人口	万元	0.211
	经济结构	I₈	第一产业经济占比	%	0.061
		I₉	第二产业经济占比	%	0.062
		I₁₀	第三产业经济占比	%	0.034
农业生态环境发展指数I_agr	环境污染	I₁₁	农业化肥施用量/人口	t/万人	0.301
		I₁₂	农业塑料薄膜使用量/人口	t/万人	0.147
		I₁₃	农药使用量/人口	t/万人	0.145
	发展强度	I₁₄	农业机械总动力/人口	万千瓦/人	0.407

图2 2005—2015年贵州乌蒙山区人口(Ipop)、经济(Ieco)、农业生态环境(Iagr)发展指数特征

Fig.2 Population, economic and agro-ecological environment development index of Wumen Mountain, Guizhou Province, 2005-2015

图3 2005—2015年贵州乌蒙山区各县区人口发展指数(Ipop)变化特征

Fig.3 Variation characteristics of population development index in counties and districts of Wumen Mountain, Guizhou Province, 2005-2015

图4 2005—2015年贵州乌蒙山区各县区经济发展指数(Ieco)变化特征

Fig.4 Variation characteristics of economy development index in counties and districts of Wumen Mountain, Guizhou Province,2005-2015

图5 2005—2015年贵州乌蒙山区各县区农业生态环境发展指数(Iagr)变化特征

Fig.5 Variation characteristics of agro-ecological environment development index in counties and districts of Wumen Mountain, Guizhou Province,2005-2015

图6 2005—2015年贵州乌蒙山区耦合度(Icou)与协调度(Icoo)变化特征

Fig.6 Characteristics of coupling and coordination degree of Wumen Mountain, Guizhou Province, 2005-2015

图7 2000—2015年贵州乌蒙山区各县区耦合度(Icou)变化特征

Fig.7 Variation characteristics of coupling degree in counties and districts of Wumen Mountain,Guizhou Province，2005-2015

图8 2005—2015年贵州乌蒙山区各县区协调度(Icoo)变化特征

Fig.8 Variation characteristics of coordination degree in counties and districts of Wumen Mountain, Guizhou Province， 2005-2015

表2 耦合度（Icou）与协调度（Icoo）相关分析

Tab.2 Correlation analysis and partial correlation analysis of coupling degree and coordination degree

年份	参数	相关性	I_pop	I_eco	I_agr
2005年	I_cou	Pearson 相关性	0.823^**	0.912^**	-0.406
	I_cou	显著性（双尾）	0.003	0.000	0.244
	I_coo	Pearson 相关性	0.952^**	0.897^**	0.091
	I_coo	显著性（双尾）	0.000	0.000	0.804
2015年	I_cou	Pearson 相关性	-0.295	-0.300	0.624
	I_cou	显著性（双尾）	0.408	0.400	0.054
	I_coo	Pearson 相关性	0.790^**	0.760^*	0.663^*
	I_coo	显著性（双尾）	0.007	0.011	0.037

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