江苏省生态福利绩效时空演化及影响机制研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.03.2020926

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

生态福利绩效融合经济、社会、生态三大系统，是衡量城市可持续发展能力的有效工具，反映了区域代际公平和代内公平。对2000—2017年江苏省13座城市生态福利绩效的时空演化特征、影响因素及形成机制研究发现：（1）江苏省城市生态福利绩效年均值较低，为0.455，整体呈现先下降后上升的“U形”变动特征，先后经历快速下降期、缓慢波动期及有序增长期；（2）从空间上看，城市之间生态福利绩效差异显著，经济发展水平与生态福利绩效具有明显的空间错配，经济发达的苏南地市生态福利绩效远低于经济欠发达的苏中、苏北地市；（3）动态面板回归揭示城镇化、经济增长与生态福利绩效均呈现显著的“U形”曲线关系，消费水平和产业结构高级化起到显著的正向驱动作用，外商直接投资和能源强度起到显著的抑制作用，人口密度对生态福利绩效的影响程度较弱且不显著。

关键词: 生态福利绩效, 时空演化, 影响因素, 江苏省

Abstract:

Ecological well-being performance integrates the three major systems of economy, society and ecology. It is an effective tool for measuring the sustainable development capacity and reflects both regional inter-generational equity and intra-generational equity. This study uses the Super SBM-DEA model and system dynamic panel regression model to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics, influencing factors and formation mechanism of ecological well-being performance in Jiangsu province from 2000 to 2017. The study found that: (1) The level of urban ecological well-being performance in Jiangsu province was relatively low, and the overall shape was a "U" characteristic that first declines and then rises. It has experienced rapid decline, slow fluctuations and orderly growth. (2) From a spatial perspective, the difference in ecological well-being performance between regional cities was significant, and there was a significant spatial mismatch between economic growth and ecological well-being performance. The economic well-being performance of the economically developed cities in south Jiangsu was far lower than that of the underdeveloped central and northern Jiangsu cities. (3) The system dynamic panel regression showed that urbanization, economic growth and ecological well-being performance all show a significant U-shaped curve relationship, consumption level and industrial structure advanced played a significant positive driving role, foreign direct investment and energy intensity played a significant inhibitory role, the impact of population density on ecological well-being performance was weak and insignificant.

Key words: ecological well-being performance, spatial-temporal evolution, influencing factors, Jiangsu Province

李在军, 胡美娟. 江苏省生态福利绩效时空演化及影响机制研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(3): 124-135.

Zaijun LI, Meijuan HU. Spatial-temporal evolution and formation mechanism of ecological well-being performance in Jiangsu Province[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(3): 124-135.

图/表 7

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标
投入	土地资源消耗	人均建成区面积（X1）
	水资源消耗	人均用水量（X2）
	能源资源消耗	人均能源消费量（X3）
非期望产出	废水排放量	人均工业废水排放量（Y1）、人均生活污水排放量（Y2）
	工业废气排放量	人均工业废气排放量（Y3）
	固体废弃物产生量	人均固体废弃物产生量（Y4）
期望产出	经济水平	人均可支配收入（Z1）
	教育水平	人均受教育年限（Z2）
	医疗服务水平	万人医生数（Z3）、万人医院数（Z4）、万人床位数（Z5）

一级指标	二级指标	三级指标
投入	土地资源消耗	人均建成区面积（X1）
	水资源消耗	人均用水量（X2）
	能源资源消耗	人均能源消费量（X3）
非期望产出	废水排放量	人均工业废水排放量（Y1）、人均生活污水排放量（Y2）
	工业废气排放量	人均工业废气排放量（Y3）
	固体废弃物产生量	人均固体废弃物产生量（Y4）
期望产出	经济水平	人均可支配收入（Z1）
	教育水平	人均受教育年限（Z2）
	医疗服务水平	万人医生数（Z3）、万人医院数（Z4）、万人床位数（Z5）

自变量	符号	计算方法	单位
城市化	URB	城镇人口/常住人口	%
经济增长	PGDP	地区生产总值/常住人口	万元/人
消费水平	CON	社会消费品零售额/常住人口	元/人
产业结构	STR	第三产业增加值/第二产业增加值	%
外商投资	FDI	外商直接投资额/社会固定投资总额	%
能源强度	ENR	能源消费量/GDP	吨标准煤/万元
人口密度	PD	常住人口/城市面积	人/km²

自变量	符号	计算方法	单位
城市化	URB	城镇人口/常住人口	%
经济增长	PGDP	地区生产总值/常住人口	万元/人
消费水平	CON	社会消费品零售额/常住人口	元/人
产业结构	STR	第三产业增加值/第二产业增加值	%
外商投资	FDI	外商直接投资额/社会固定投资总额	%
能源强度	ENR	能源消费量/GDP	吨标准煤/万元
人口密度	PD	常住人口/城市面积	人/km²

自变量	基准回归	固定效应	动态面板回归
自变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5	模型6	模型7	模型8	模型9
EWP_2	0.320^*** (12.28)	0.249^*** (5.85)	0.576^*** (23.34)	0.400^*** (35.72)	0.510^*** (20.21)	0.456^*** (22.13)	0.488^*** (22.31)	0.421^*** (13.69)	0.455^*** (31.37)
lnURB	0.213 (1.04)	0.234 (1.39)	-0.102^*** (-2.96)	-0.232^*** (-3.58)	-0.239^*** (-4.49)	0.078 (1.21)	0.108 (0.79)	0.113 (0.76)	0.192^* (1.85)
lnURB²	0.318^** (2.69)	0.056 (0.31)	0.563 (0.46)	0.143^* (1.72)	0.221^*** (3.54)	0.219^*** (4.42)	0.216^*** (4.42)	0.216^*** (3.98)	0.321^*** (5.24)
lnPGDP	-0.130^* (-1.79)	-0.539^*** (-3.21)		0.141^*** (5.23)	-0.245^*** (-6.79)	-0.232^*** (-7.32)	-0.142^*** (-3.87)	-0.145^*** (-4.42)	-0.156^*** (-4.74)
lnCON	0.321^*** (5.12)	0.531^*** (4.56)			0.631^*** (20.45)	0.553^*** (18.74)	0.442^*** (18.34)	0.432^*** (17.25)	0.419^*** (16.13)
lnSTR	0.321^*** (5.23)	0.212^*** (3.19)				0.212^*** (5.42)	0.325^*** (5.23)	0.289^*** (4.04)	0.301^*** (5.10)
lnFDI	-0.234^** (-2.56)	-0.032 (-0.56)					-0.432^*** (-3.43)	-0.034^*** (-3.21)	-0.119^*** (-4.13)
lnENR	-0.031 (-0.89)	0.021 (0.12)						-0.168^*** (-4.73)	-0.124^*** (-4.43)
lnPD	0.132^** (2.31)	-0.120 (-0.11)							0.063^** (2.59)
_cons	-0.134^** (-2.35)	0.126 (0.44)	0.152^*** (5.32)	0.432^*** (10.11)	0.126^*** (4.55)	-0.232^*** (-4.63)	-0.128^*** (-3.43)	-0.032 (-1.43)	-0.279^*** (-3.56)
AR（1）	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
AR（2）	0.123	0.119	0.111	0.105	0.116	0.107	0.105	0.126	0.127
Sargan	0.121	0.140	0.122	0.135	0.113	0.145	0.138	0.115	0.129