中国手机出口的时空格局演变及其影响因素

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.03.20220043

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来，中国在全球手机生产网络中的地位不断上升，逐渐成为全球第一大手机出口国。同时，随着我国国内手机市场渐趋饱和，越来越多的中国手机生产商开始注重海外市场的开发。本文通过贸易流、贸易强度指数、面板数据模型等方法，分析了2007年以来我国手机出口时空格局变化及其影响因素。研究发现：（1）2007年以来，中国手机出口经历缓慢增长、快速增长、波动增长三个阶段，全球占有率不断提升，但受贸易保护主义和新冠疫情的冲击，2018年以来我国手机出口规模出现一定程度的缩水。（2）中国手机出口贸易网络密度不断增强，整体呈现以东亚、美国、欧盟为核心的三极格局，但手机出口贸易网络的集中度较高，存在安全隐患。（3）中国手机出口贸易网络的核心节点与贸易强度较大地区存在空间错位，欧盟是最大市场但贸易强度指数不高，非洲市场份额很小但贸易强度指数极高，东盟是我国手机出口主要市场、也是出口依赖度较高的地区。（4）影响我国手机出口格局的主要因素是供给侧的制造业劳动力价格和R&D经费支出，其次是需求侧的制度质量、市场规模等，而流通方面的影响较小。

关键词: 手机出口, 时空格局, 贸易强度指数, 动态面板模型, 影响因素

Abstract:

In recent years, China's position in the global mobile phone production network has been rising, gradually becoming the world's largest exporter of mobile phones. At the same time, with the gradual saturation of China's domestic mobile phone market, more and more manufacturers pay attention to the development of overseas markets. Through the research methods of trade flow, trade intensity index and panel data model, this paper analyzed the evolution of China's mobile phone export pattern and its influencing factors since 2007. The study found that: (1) Since 2007, China's mobile phone export has experienced three stages of slow growth, rapid growth and fluctuating growth, and its global share has been increasing. However, due to the impact of trade protectionism and COVID-19, China's mobile phone export has been shrinking since 2018. (2) The network density of China's mobile phone export continues to increase, showing a three pole pattern with East Asia, the United States and the European Union as the core; However, the concentration of mobile phone export trade network is high, and there are some security risks. (3) There is a spatial dislocation between the core node of China's mobile phone export trade network and the regions with high trade intensity index. The EU is the largest market, but the trade intensity index is not high. Africa has a small market share, but the trade intensity index is very high. ASEAN is not only the main market for China's mobile phone export, but also the region with high export dependence. (4) The main factors affecting China's mobile phone export pattern are the existing mobile phone trade pattern and political stability, followed by geographical distance, destination market scale and other factors, while China's foreign direct investment, cultural distance, business environment, technical barriers to trade and other factors have less impact. The main factors affecting China's mobile phone export pattern are the manufacturing labor price and R&D expenditure on the supply side, followed by the institutional quality and market size on the demand side, while the circulation factors have less impact.

Key words: mobile phone export trade, spatio-temporal evolution, Trade Intensity Index, Dynamic Panel Model, influencing factors

徐婧雅, 宋周莺. 中国手机出口的时空格局演变及其影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(3): 17-27.

Jingya XU, Zhouying SONG. The evolution of China's mobile phone export trade pattern and its influencing factors[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(3): 17-27.

图/表 5

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变量类型	类别	变量名称		单位	均值	标准差
被解释变量	—	手机出口	EXP	百万美元	563.791	2 896.640
解释变量	供给	国内生产总值	CGDP	万亿元	62.855	23.884
		国内人口总数	CPOP	亿	13.700	0.305
		中国制造业劳动力价格	Labor	万元	4.940	1.951
		中国R&D经费支出占比	R&D	%	1.927	0.286
	需求	手机出口滞后一期项	EXP_t-1	百万美元	—	—
		世界各国国民生产总值	GDP	百亿美元	39.663	153.172
		世界各国人口总数	POP	亿	0.349	1.102
		中国对该国直接投资	OFDI	亿美元	52.789	584.250
		贸易开放度	OPEN	—	0.651	0.404
		全球治理指数	WGI	—	0.009	0.877
	流通	首都间距离	DIS	千公里	8.750	3.863
	流通	技术性贸易壁垒	TBT	次	0.646	3.590

变量类型	类别	变量名称		单位	均值	标准差
被解释变量	—	手机出口	EXP	百万美元	563.791	2 896.640
解释变量	供给	国内生产总值	CGDP	万亿元	62.855	23.884
		国内人口总数	CPOP	亿	13.700	0.305
		中国制造业劳动力价格	Labor	万元	4.940	1.951
		中国R&D经费支出占比	R&D	%	1.927	0.286
	需求	手机出口滞后一期项	EXP_t-1	百万美元	—	—
		世界各国国民生产总值	GDP	百亿美元	39.663	153.172
		世界各国人口总数	POP	亿	0.349	1.102
		中国对该国直接投资	OFDI	亿美元	52.789	584.250
		贸易开放度	OPEN	—	0.651	0.404
		全球治理指数	WGI	—	0.009	0.877
	流通	首都间距离	DIS	千公里	8.750	3.863
	流通	技术性贸易壁垒	TBT	次	0.646	3.590

指标	变量	(1) 总体样本	(2) 去除北美洲样本	(3) 去除南美洲样本	(4) 去除大洋洲样本
中国GDP值	lnCGDP	1.205	1.136	1.306	0.666
		(1.311)	(1.306)	(1.368)	(1.323)
中国人口总数	lnCPOP	－2.422	－2.497	－2.188	－1.524
		(1.657)	(1.750)	(1.720)	(1.289)
中国制造业劳动力价格	lnLabor	－3.582^**	－3.474^**	－3.552^**	－2.624^*
		(1.854)	(1.944)	(1.921)	(1.644)
中国R&D经费支出占比	lnR&D	2.699^***	2.607^***	2.848^***	2.609^***
		(0.877)	(0.884)	(0.911)	(0.869)
技术性贸易壁垒	TBT	－0.075^*	－0.077^*	－0.073^*	－0.079^*
		(0.0 706)	(0.0 738)	(0.0 743)	(0.0 746)
首都间距离	lnDIS	－0.492	－0.353	－0.415	－0.515
		(0.579)	(0.466)	(0.535)	(0.542)
手机出口滞后一期	L.lnEXP	0.163^***	0.163^***	0.182^***	0.222^**
		(0.0 940)	(0.0 916)	(0.0 980)	(0.103)
世界各国GDP总值	lnGDP	0.586^**	0.617^**	0.557^***	0.665^**
		(0.266)	(0.263)	(0.287)	(0.260)
世界各国人口总数	lnPOP	0.258^*	0.308^*	0.182^*	0.609^*
		(0.839)	(0.831)	(0.848)	(0.799)
贸易开放度	lnOPEN	0.277	0.297	0.211	0.281
		(0.271)	(0.282)	(0.271)	(0.280)
中国对外直接投资存量	lnOFDI	－0.0 132	－0.0 144	－0.0 149	－0.0 220
		(0.0 415)	(0.0 417)	(0.0 455)	(0.0 443)
全球治理指数	WGI	0.652^*	0.645^*	0.601^*	0.582^*
		(0.425)	(0.433)	(0.445)	(0.393)

指标	变量	(1) 总体样本	(2) 去除北美洲样本	(3) 去除南美洲样本	(4) 去除大洋洲样本
中国GDP值	lnCGDP	1.205	1.136	1.306	0.666
		(1.311)	(1.306)	(1.368)	(1.323)
中国人口总数	lnCPOP	－2.422	－2.497	－2.188	－1.524
		(1.657)	(1.750)	(1.720)	(1.289)
中国制造业劳动力价格	lnLabor	－3.582^**	－3.474^**	－3.552^**	－2.624^*
		(1.854)	(1.944)	(1.921)	(1.644)
中国R&D经费支出占比	lnR&D	2.699^***	2.607^***	2.848^***	2.609^***
		(0.877)	(0.884)	(0.911)	(0.869)
技术性贸易壁垒	TBT	－0.075^*	－0.077^*	－0.073^*	－0.079^*
		(0.0 706)	(0.0 738)	(0.0 743)	(0.0 746)
首都间距离	lnDIS	－0.492	－0.353	－0.415	－0.515
		(0.579)	(0.466)	(0.535)	(0.542)
手机出口滞后一期	L.lnEXP	0.163^***	0.163^***	0.182^***	0.222^**
		(0.0 940)	(0.0 916)	(0.0 980)	(0.103)
世界各国GDP总值	lnGDP	0.586^**	0.617^**	0.557^***	0.665^**
		(0.266)	(0.263)	(0.287)	(0.260)
世界各国人口总数	lnPOP	0.258^*	0.308^*	0.182^*	0.609^*
		(0.839)	(0.831)	(0.848)	(0.799)
贸易开放度	lnOPEN	0.277	0.297	0.211	0.281
		(0.271)	(0.282)	(0.271)	(0.280)
中国对外直接投资存量	lnOFDI	－0.0 132	－0.0 144	－0.0 149	－0.0 220
		(0.0 415)	(0.0 417)	(0.0 455)	(0.0 443)
全球治理指数	WGI	0.652^*	0.645^*	0.601^*	0.582^*
		(0.425)	(0.433)	(0.445)	(0.393)

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