广州应急避难场所空间可达性及供需类型分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.01.20240259

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市安全是城市建设的试金石，随着城市化进程的不断加快，自然灾害对城市系统的冲击和影响呈现出动态、复杂和不确定的特性，因此如何建设安全宜居的城市越来越受到关注。应急避险系统是维护城市安全的重要空间载体，对提升城市综合防灾减灾能力有着重要作用。文章以特大城市广州为例，基于人口、应急避难场所和交通道路网等数据，利用地理信息系统和两步移动搜寻法，计算不同阈值下不同类型的应急避难场所的可达性，并在此基础上，通过K均值聚类与Z分数法分析其供需类型及特征。结果表明：①广州应急避难场所类型较为单一，以公园绿地类设施为主，其他类型贡献率较低；②应急避难场所可达性水平整体较好，综合可达性空间分布差异显著，呈现出“中心城区可达性高、远郊区可达性较低”的空间特征；③应急避难场所供需关系不平衡，5个供需匹配类型中，中供给中需求是广州应急避难场所综合可达性供需关系分布占比最高的地区。应急避难场所整体服务人口缺口大，市中心与郊区之间的过渡区域服务缺口大，郊区型市辖区服务缺口占比高。本研究为广州市适应新发展格局、应对公共安全风险和国土空间优化提供新思路，为建设“韧性城市”提供了政策借鉴。

关键词: 应急避难场所, 可达性, 两步移动搜寻法, 供需关系, 广州市

Abstract:

Urban safety is a cornerstone of urban construction. With accelerating urbanization, how to build safe and livable cities has attracted growing attention. The emergency risk avoidance system, as a critical spatial component for urban safety, plays a vital role in enhancing comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. Taking Guangzhou—a megacity—as an example, this study integrates population data, emergency shelter locations, and transportation networks to calculate the accessibility of different shelter types under varying thresholds using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the two-step floating catchment area method. Furthermore, we analyze supply-demand patterns and their characteristics through K-means clustering and Z-score normalization. The results indicate that: (1) Emergency shelter types in Guangzhou are relatively homogeneous, predominantly comprising parks and green spaces, with limited diversity and low contributions from other categories. (2) The overall accessibility of shelters is moderately high, yet spatial distribution of comprehensive accessibility varies significantly, exhibiting higher levels in the city center and lower levels in peripheral suburbs. (3) Supply-demand imbalance can be categorized into five main types, with medium supply–medium demand areas representing the most common pattern in Guangzhou. The overall relative service population gap is substantial, particularly in the urban-rural fringe, where suburban districts show a high proportion of unmet demand. This study offers insights for Guangzhou to adapt to new development patterns, address public safety challenges, and optimize land use, while providing policy references for building a "resilient city."

Key words: emergency shelter, accessibility, two-step floating catchment area method, supply and demand, Guangzhou

唐波, 何灏, 闫永涛, 林琳. 广州应急避难场所空间可达性及供需类型分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2026, 35(1): 95-108.

Bo TANG, Hao HE, Yongtao YAN, Lin LIN. Analysis of spatial accessibility and supply & demand types of emergency shelters in Guangzhou[J]. World Regional Studies, 2026, 35(1): 95-108.

图/表 11

参考文献 28

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行政区	可达性				标准差
行政区	d₀≤1 000	d₀≤3 000	d₀≤5 000	平均可达性	d₀≤1 000	d₀≤3 000	d₀≤5 000
越秀区	105.46	121	84.22	103.56	145.14	61.11	10.36
黄埔区	7.06	102.35	122.64	77.35	19.74	221.86	133.76
天河区	30.72	92.52	81.12	68.12	51.44	45.02	14.38
海珠区	13.2	65.74	91.79	56.91	29.32	97.78	86.28
增城区	29.25	51.38	83.59	54.74	101.34	121.86	145.73
南沙区	14	40.09	97.17	50.42	27.24	60.21	112.68
番禺区	9.45	65.28	66.78	47.17	25.99	110.14	73.16
荔湾区	37.35	50.72	48.68	45.58	121.2	36.34	21.5
白云区	3.49	13.98	28.81	15.43	4.61	11.76	20.55
花都区	0.03	8.82	22.45	10.43	0.08	14.39	25.17
从化区	2.3	9.62	9.62	7.18	6.09	19.02	19.02
总体	22.94	56.5	66.99	48.81	78.59	101.13	79.88

行政区	可达性				标准差
行政区	d₀≤1 000	d₀≤3 000	d₀≤5 000	平均可达性	d₀≤1 000	d₀≤3 000	d₀≤5 000
越秀区	105.46	121	84.22	103.56	145.14	61.11	10.36
黄埔区	7.06	102.35	122.64	77.35	19.74	221.86	133.76
天河区	30.72	92.52	81.12	68.12	51.44	45.02	14.38
海珠区	13.2	65.74	91.79	56.91	29.32	97.78	86.28
增城区	29.25	51.38	83.59	54.74	101.34	121.86	145.73
南沙区	14	40.09	97.17	50.42	27.24	60.21	112.68
番禺区	9.45	65.28	66.78	47.17	25.99	110.14	73.16
荔湾区	37.35	50.72	48.68	45.58	121.2	36.34	21.5
白云区	3.49	13.98	28.81	15.43	4.61	11.76	20.55
花都区	0.03	8.82	22.45	10.43	0.08	14.39	25.17
从化区	2.3	9.62	9.62	7.18	6.09	19.02	19.02
总体	22.94	56.5	66.99	48.81	78.59	101.13	79.88

行政区	可达性				标准差
行政区	d₀≤1 000	d₀≤3 000	d₀≤5 000	平均可达性	d₀≤1 000	d₀≤3 000	d₀≤5 000
越秀区	0.4	0.16	0.44	0.33	0.88	0.29	0.49
黄埔区	0	0.22	0.38	0.2	0	0.88	1.51
天河区	22.86	0.50	0.56	7.98	97.63	0.68	0.55
海珠区	0.14	0.22	0.27	0.21	0.53	0.57	0.37
增城区	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
南沙区	0	0.44	1.37	0.61	0	1.25	3.14
番禺区	0	3.57	0.80	1.46	0	6.55	2.51
荔湾区	0	0.01	0.05	0.02	0	0.01	0.05
白云区	0.16	0.25	0.09	0.16	0.54	0.42	0.2
花都区	0	0.24	1.08	0.44	0	0.72	1.49
从化区	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
总体	2.14	0.51	0.45	1.125	9.05	1.03	0.94

行政区	可达性				标准差
行政区	d₀≤1 000	d₀≤3 000	d₀≤5 000	平均可达性	d₀≤1 000	d₀≤3 000	d₀≤5 000
越秀区	0.4	0.16	0.44	0.33	0.88	0.29	0.49
黄埔区	0	0.22	0.38	0.2	0	0.88	1.51
天河区	22.86	0.50	0.56	7.98	97.63	0.68	0.55
海珠区	0.14	0.22	0.27	0.21	0.53	0.57	0.37
增城区	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
南沙区	0	0.44	1.37	0.61	0	1.25	3.14
番禺区	0	3.57	0.80	1.46	0	6.55	2.51
荔湾区	0	0.01	0.05	0.02	0	0.01	0.05
白云区	0.16	0.25	0.09	0.16	0.54	0.42	0.2
花都区	0	0.24	1.08	0.44	0	0.72	1.49
从化区	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
总体	2.14	0.51	0.45	1.125	9.05	1.03	0.94

行政区	可达性				标准差
行政区	d₀≤1 000	d₀≤3 000	d₀≤5 000	平均可达性	d₀≤1 000	d₀≤3 000	d₀≤5 000
越秀区	3.98	0.47	0.32	1.59	13.51	0.12	0.15
黄埔区	0	1.1	0.04	0.38	0	3	0.06
天河区	3.14	9.9	0.74	4.59	14.05	21.12	0.45
海珠区	0.22	1.88	0.16	0.75	0.89	5.44	0.1
增城区	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
南沙区	0	0.54	0.54	0.36	0	1.53	1.53
番禺区	0.65	2.03	0.02	0.9	2.51	5.76	0.04
荔湾区	0	0.01	0.05	0.02	0	0.01	0.05
白云区	0	0.02	0.06	0.03	0	0.06	0.11
花都区	0	0.63	0.63	0.42	0	1.26	1.26
从化区	1.04	1.04	1.04	1.04	2.74	2.74	2.74
总体	0.82	1.6	0.33	0.97	3.06	3.73	0.59