中部地区农民城镇化意愿及其影响因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.01.2018416

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城镇化本质是“人”的城镇化，“人”的城镇化关键是实现由农民向市民的转化。首先，本文从理论上构建出农民城镇化意愿的二元logistic模型；其次，选取我国中部地区安徽皖南芜湖县、皖北临泉县作为典型案例地进行实证对比研究。结果表明：①总体上，典型县域农民城镇化意愿相对较强烈（75.01%）；②个体特征因素、家庭因素及社会因素均对安徽典型县域农民城镇化具有十分显著影响，其中受教育程度、家庭年总收入、学龄儿童、政府就业政策及教育政策等对农民城镇化意愿产生显著正向效应；务工年限、城里社会关系等也对农民城镇化意愿产生正向影响，但显著性程度相对不高；而农民年龄、户籍社保制度对农民城镇化意愿产生显著负向影响。③最后，从增加城镇就业岗位、开展职业教育培训、深化改革社保制度及加强社区治理体系建设等方面提出促进农民城镇化发展的政策建议。

关键词: 农民城镇化, 意愿, 影响因素, 安徽, 县域

Abstract:

Urbanization is the essence of human urbanization, human urbanization is to realize the transformation from farmer to citizen, and the county is the most important spatial carrier to realize the transformation from farmer to citizen and human urbanization. As a typical case, wuhu county in Anhui province and Linquan county in Anhui province in northern Anhui province were selected to analyze the influence mechanism of local urbanization in theory, and to construct the dual model of local urbanization in county by empirical comparison. The results show that:overall, the urbanization willingness of farmers in typical counties in the central region was relatively strong(75.01%). Individual characteristic factors, family factors and social factors all have a very significant impact on in situ urbanization; the education level, the total annual income of families, school-age children, government employment policies and education policies have a significant positive effect on the farmers' willingness to in situ urbanization. In addition, the length of work and the social relations in the city also have a positive impact on the farmers' willingness to in situ urbanization, but the degree of significance is relatively low; the social security system of farmer's age and household registration has a significant negative impact on the farmers' willingness to in situ urbanization.Policy suggestions are put forward to promote local urbanization in counties from such aspects as increasing employment in cities and towns, developing vocational education and training, deepening social security system and strengthening community governance system.

Key words: farmers’ urbanization, willing, influence factors, Anhui, county

张荣天, 李传武. 中部地区农民城镇化意愿及其影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(1): 112-119.

Rongtian ZHANG, Chuanwu LI. An investigation in the typical counties of Anhui[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(1): 112-119.

图/表 5

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意愿分析	人数	比例/%
愿意	1489	75.01
不愿意	496	24.99
总计	1985	100.00

意愿分析	人数	比例/%
愿意	1489	75.01
不愿意	496	24.99
总计	1985	100.00

	影响因素	选择人次/人	所占比例/%
促进因素	获取更多的工作就业机会	1708	21.36
	城里的生活环境条件更好	1553	19.42
	城里拥有更好的教育资源	1427	17.85
	来往城镇上班交通的不便	1267	15.85
	实现个人价值及体现地位	1008	12.61
	周围人都纷纷去城镇买房	992	12.41
阻碍因素	现在的收入不错、生活稳定	1622	20.01
	习惯了家里环境及生活方式	1503	18.53
	城市房价太贵、生活成本高	1449	17.86
	城市找工作难且无社会保障	1367	16.85
	城里空气质量不好及环境差	1186	14.62
	普通话不好怕沟通存在障碍	985	12.14

	影响因素	选择人次/人	所占比例/%
促进因素	获取更多的工作就业机会	1708	21.36
	城里的生活环境条件更好	1553	19.42
	城里拥有更好的教育资源	1427	17.85
	来往城镇上班交通的不便	1267	15.85
	实现个人价值及体现地位	1008	12.61
	周围人都纷纷去城镇买房	992	12.41
阻碍因素	现在的收入不错、生活稳定	1622	20.01
	习惯了家里环境及生活方式	1503	18.53
	城市房价太贵、生活成本高	1449	17.86
	城市找工作难且无社会保障	1367	16.85
	城里空气质量不好及环境差	1186	14.62
	普通话不好怕沟通存在障碍	985	12.14

变量类型	模型变量	变量定义	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
被解释变量	愿意迁移	是=1，否=0	0.65	0.43	0	1
解释变量：1个体因素变量	农民年龄	29及以下=1，30~39=2，40~49=3，50及以上=4	2.61	1.12	1	4
	受教育程度	小学及以下=1，初中=2，高中或中专=3，大专及以上学历=4	2.62	1.08	1	4
	务工年限	1年以内=1，2~4年=2， 5~7年=3，8年以上=4	2.58	1.03	1	4
解释变量：2家庭因素变量	学龄儿童	没有=0，有=1	0.67	0.35	0	1
	家庭年收入	1万以下=1，1~3万=2，3~5万=3，5万以上=4	2.55	1.24	1	4
	城里社会关系	没有关系=0，有关系=1	0.58	0.39	0	1
解释变量：3社会因素变量	户籍社保制度	不了解=1，了解一点=2，了解=3	1.56	0.72	1	3
	政府就业政策	不了解=1，了解一点=2，了解=3	1.62	0.85	1	3
	政府教育政策	不了解=1，了解一点=2，了解=3	1.53	0.59	1	3