俄罗斯新冠肺炎疫情的扩散：过程、格局与影响因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.03.2020884

世界地理研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 41-51.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.03.2020884

俄罗斯新冠肺炎疫情的扩散：过程、格局与影响因素研究

初楠臣¹(), 张平宇²^,³(), 吴相利¹, 徐爽¹, 史晓楠²

^1.哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院，哈尔滨 150025
^2.中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所，长春 130102
^3.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院，北京 100049

收稿日期:2020-12-11 修回日期:2021-04-24 出版日期:2023-03-15 发布日期:2023-04-04
通讯作者: 张平宇
作者简介:初楠臣（1992—），男，讲师，博士，研究方向为城市地理与区域发展，E-mail：chunanchen_1992@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42101165);黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(21JLC201);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2021M693817);黑龙江省博士后资助项目(LBH-Z21067);哈尔滨师范大学硕士研究生创新项目(HSDSSCX2022-107)

COVID-19 diffusion in Russia: Process, pattern and influencing factors

Nanchen CHU¹(), Pingyu ZHANG²^,³(), Xiangli WU¹, Shuang XU¹, Xiaonan SHI²

^1.College of Geographical Sciences, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025, China
^2.Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China
^3.College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2020-12-11 Revised:2021-04-24 Online:2023-03-15 Published:2023-04-04
Contact: Pingyu ZHANG

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

遵循过程-格局-机理的脉络，结合每日新增病例、累计确诊病例、治愈量、死亡量等分析俄罗斯新冠肺炎疫情的发展过程，利用空间自相关分析研究俄新冠肺炎疫情的格局变化，基于多元线性回归分析探讨俄新冠肺炎疫情扩散的影响因素。研究发现：自2020年1月31日俄罗斯出现首例确诊病例以来，俄新冠肺炎疫情经历了平稳偶发、迅速暴发和扩散、扩散衰退、严重扩散等4个阶段，其治愈量保持稳定上升态势，死亡率徘徊于2%。人口规模、经济发展、医疗水平、交通设施等是影响俄罗斯新冠疫情扩散的重要因素，空间上，俄新冠肺炎疫情扩散表现为早期的多点扩散到后期的全面扩散，以及以莫斯科市为中心的邻近扩散、迁移扩散、廊道扩散的“由西到东”格局特征，与此同时，俄内部疫情也表现出一定的空间集聚性，莫斯科市、莫斯科州、圣彼得堡市、下诺夫哥罗德州、斯维尔德洛夫斯克州、汉特-曼西自治区、罗斯托夫州、克拉斯诺亚尔斯克边疆区等是疫情重灾区。最后总结了新冠肺炎疫情下的中俄未来合作发展对策与建议。

关键词: 新冠肺炎疫情, 发展过程, 空间格局, 影响因素, 俄罗斯

Abstract:

This paper studied the COVID-19 development process, spatial pattern and influencing factors in Russia. Based on the indicators of the total confirmed cases, new daily confirmed cases, cured cases amount and death cases amount, the spatial differentiation pattern of the COVID-19 in Russia were studied by using ArcGIS. And the influencing factors of COVID-19 spreading were analyzed with the multiple linear regression analysis. The results are as below. First, the spreading process of COVID-19 in Russia had four stages, namely, being stage I: occasional occurrence, stage II: rapid diffusion, stage III: attenuation diffusion, and stage IV: serious diffusion. The cure rate of COVID-19 has been increasing, and the death rate of COVID-19 is around 2% in Russia. Second, population size, economic development level, medical level, and transportation network have a certain impact on the spread of COVID-19 in Russia. Third, Russia's COVID-19 spread is characterized from the multi-point diffusion in the early stage to the complete diffusion in the later stage. From the center of Moscow city, the spatial spread of COVID-19 mainly shows the patterns of adjacent diffusion, relocation diffusion, hierarchical diffusion, and corridor diffusion. What's more, Russia's COVID-19 spread also shows the characteristics of internal spatial agglomeration. The areas with high COVID-19 confirmed cases are concentrated in Moscow City, Moscow Region, Saint-Petersburg city, Nizhny Novgorod Region, Sverdlovsk Region, Khanty-Mansiysky Autonomous Area, Rostov Region, and Krasnoyarsk Territory. Finally, we suggest policies and strategies that can boost the cooperation and development between China and Russia in the post-COVID-19 period.

Key words: COVID-19, development process, spatial pattern, influence factors, Russia

初楠臣, 张平宇, 吴相利, 徐爽, 史晓楠. 俄罗斯新冠肺炎疫情的扩散：过程、格局与影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(3): 41-51.

Nanchen CHU, Pingyu ZHANG, Xiangli WU, Shuang XU, Xiaonan SHI. COVID-19 diffusion in Russia: Process, pattern and influencing factors[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(3): 41-51.

图/表 5

图1 研究区略图注：此图基于国家自然资源部标准地图服务系统的标准地图（审图号：GS（2016）2276号）绘制，底图无修改。2019年原隶属于西伯利亚联邦区的布里亚特共和国和外贝加尔边疆区划归至远东联邦区。

Fig.1 Sketch map of the study area

图2 俄新冠肺炎疫情的病例总确诊量和每日新增病例

Fig.2 Total confirmed cases and daily new cases of COVID-19 in Russia

图3 俄罗斯每日新冠肺炎疫情的治愈量和死亡量

Fig.3 Daily cure and death cases of COVID-19 in Russia

图4 俄新冠肺炎疫情的全局自相关指数变化

Fig.4 Global autocorrelation index changes of COVID-19 in Russia

图5 俄罗斯新冠肺炎疫情的空间格局变化注：b、c、d图的红色椭圆代表以莫斯科市为中心向外扩散的范围，椭圆越大代表新冠肺炎疫情扩散范围越广。

Fig.5 Spatial pattern changes of COVID-19 in Russia

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俄罗斯新冠肺炎疫情的扩散：过程、格局与影响因素研究

COVID-19 diffusion in Russia: Process, pattern and influencing factors

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