环中国南海周边国家及地区地缘经贸关系动态演化探析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.03.2019111

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1996~2016年联合国商品贸易数据库进出口贸易额，采用社会网络分析法和位序变动指数法，对环中国南海周边国家及地区的经贸网络关系展开时空演化的实证研究。结果表明：1）环中国南海周边国家及地区的整体经贸网络格局演化呈日益紧密的趋势，形成了以中国大陆和中国香港为核心，泰国、马来西亚、新加坡和印度尼西亚为次核心，澳门、越南、柬埔寨、文莱和菲律宾为边缘地带的相对稳定的网络结构特征；2）在整个网络的动态发展过程中，网络影响力高的中国大陆和中国香港、网络影响力低的文莱、柬埔寨和中国澳门在进出口网络中都具有很大程度的网络结构对等性，其他国家和地区的结构数值动态波动，在进、出口网络中扮演的角色差异明显，且不断产生新的结构对等性配对；3）自1996年以来环中国南海周边国家及地区的经贸互动规模和经贸总量持续增长，但中国大陆的进出口贸易重心已由中国香港和新加坡逐渐转向以越南、泰国和马来西亚等国为代表的新兴市场国家。地缘经贸关系整体空间呈现出以中国大陆和中国香港为中心，核心、次核心及边缘地带内部力量动态演化的网络结构，且中国大陆在进出口方面都显示出对其他国家和地区极其重要的影响力。

关键词: 南海周边国家及地区, 中国大陆, 社会网络分析, 经贸关系

Abstract:

Based on the import and export trade volume of the UN Comtrade Database in 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016, the social network analysis method and the bit sequence change index are used to carry out an empirical study on the spatio-temporal evolution of the geo-economic and trade network relations among the countries and regions around the South China Sea. The results show: First, the overall economic and trade network pattern of the countries and regions surrounding the South China Sea is becoming closer evolving, and the trade between countries and regions has already been realized , forming a core of mainland China and Hong Kong, with Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia at the sub-core, Macau, Vietnam, Cambodia, Brunei and the Philippines are the relatively stable network structure characteristics of the fringe zone; Second, in the dynamic development of the whole network, different countries and regions play different roles in the import and export networks. structural equivalence in the import and export network is reflected in the high influence of the mainland China and Hong Kong , as well as the low influence of Brunei, Cambodia and the Macao.The high influence of the mainland China and Hong Kong, the low influence of Brunei, Cambodia and the Macao region in the import and export network to maintain a large degree of structural equivalence while the structural values of other countries are dynamic fluctuations, in the import and export network continue to produce new structural equivalence pairing; Third, since 1996, the scale of economic and trade interaction and the total economic and trade volume of the countries and regions surrounding the South China Sea have continued to increase, which is considerable, but the focus of import and export trade in mainland China has shifted from Hong Kong and Singapore to emerging developing countries around the South China Sea, represented by countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia. The overall space of geo-economic relations presents a relatively static center centered on mainland China and Hong Kong, while the core, sub-core and the edge regions as network internal structure dynamic evolution. And mainland China in terms of imports and exports have shown an important influence on other countries and regions.

Key words: South China Sea, Mainland China, SNA, geo-economic and trade relations

贺良辉, 薛德升. 环中国南海周边国家及地区地缘经贸关系动态演化探析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(3): 469-479.

Lianghui HE, Desheng XUE. Evolution of geo-economic and trade relations among the countries and regions surrounding the South China Sea[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(3): 469-479.

图/表 8

图1 1996—2016年环中国南海周边国家及地区贸易网络演化

Fig. 1 Evolution of trade networks in the countries and regions surrounding the South China Sea, 1996-2016

表1 整体贸易网络标准化中心势

Tab.1 Centre for standardization of the overall trade network

年份	1996	2001	2006	2011	2016
点出网络中心势	11.22%	10.99%	10.57%	10.23%	10.43%
点入网络中心势	9.74%	10.81%	12.94%	14.47	16.76%

图2 1996—2016年整体贸易网中各经济体点出度和点入度对比

Fig.2 Comparison of point outlet and point entry of each economy in the trade network, 1996-2016

图3 1996—2016年南海周边国家及地区不同中心度演化过程

Fig.3 Evolution of different centricity in South China Sea，1996-2016

表2 整体经济贸易网络核心-边缘拟合系数

Tab.2 The core-edge fitting coefficient of the overall economic and trade network

年份	1996	2001	2006	2011	2016
拟合相关系数	0.9326	0.9725	0.9731	0.9760	0.9892

图4 1996—2016年环中国南海周边国家及地区出口、进口网络结构同型分析对比图

Fig.4 Structure of international network in South China Sea peripheral countries and regions, 1996-2016

图5 中国大陆出口位序变化

Fig.5 Changes in Mainland China's export order

图6 中国大陆进口位序变化

Fig.6 Changes in Mainland China's import order

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