Abstract:

With the increasing tension of the global grain trade, how to make use of limited cultivated land resources to ensure China's food security has become a difficult problem. From the perspective of sustainable utilization of cultivated land, this paper puts forward strategies for stable grain production and production increase so as to provide theoretical support for national strategies. Based on the statistical data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)in China from 1985 to 2015, taking agricultural ecological areas as the basic unit, the temporal and spatial evolution of China's grain production and its influencing factors were studied by the comparative analysis method and the GIS spatial analysis method. The results showed that:(1) From 1985 to 2015,China's grain output showed a "fluctuation - rising" trend, but the grain growth rate in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the south of the Yangtze River and the Southern China area was low, even production decreased. (2) From 1985 to 2015, China's main grain production area gradually shifted from the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the south of the Yangtze River and the Southern China area to the northeast and Huang-Huai-Hai areas.(3) From 1985 to 2015, the influencing factors of grain production in China show a periodic and regional rule. For example, the grain production in the northeast and northwestern areas is mainly affected by the grain yield and the area of the cultivated land. The Huang-Huai-Hai areas, the Inner Mongolia plateau and the Loess Plateau, the Yun-Gui plateau and Hengduan Mountain area are mainly affected by the grain yield.(4) From 1985 to 2015, there are non-sustainable problems of farmland of different types and degrees in cultivated land in different regions of China.Ecologically fragile areas such as Northwest areas,Inner Mongolia Plateau,and Loess Plateau are more serious.

Key words: grain yield, cultivated land sustainability, temporal and spatial pattern, agricultural ecological area, food security

摘要：

随着全球粮食贸易格局的日益紧张，如何利用有限的耕地资源保证中国粮食安全成为新阶段的难题。本文从耕地可持续利用视角提出粮食稳产、增产策略，以期为粮食安全、耕地保护等国家战略提供理论支撑。基于1985—2015年中国31个省（自治区、直辖市）统计数据，以农业生态区为基本单元，采用比较分析法和GIS空间分析法，对中国粮食生产时空演变及其影响因素进行规律性探究。研究结果表明：（1）中国粮食产量呈“波动-上升”的趋势，但长江中下游区、江南和华南区粮食增长率较低，甚至出现减产现象。（2）中国粮食产量主产区逐渐由长江中下游区、江南和华南区向东北区、黄淮海区转移。（3）中国粮食生产的影响因素呈现阶段性和区域性规律。例如，东北区、西北区粮食生产主要受粮食单产、耕地面积等影响；黄淮海区、内蒙古高原和黄土高原区、云贵高原和横断山区主要受粮食单产影响。（4）中国各区耕地存在不同类型和不同程度的耕地非持续问题，在西北区、内蒙古高原和黄土高原等生态脆弱区域较严重。

关键词: 粮食产量, 耕地可持续, 时空格局, 农业生态区, 粮食安全