Abstract:

This paper combines the existing methods to construct a geo-relationship index system, using Google's GDELT database, to explore the role of geo-relations in the growth of Chinese exports. It is found that geo-relations have multiple impacts on export in the short-term and long-term, including political, geographical, institutional and cultural aspects. On the one hand, political relation which reflects the fluctuation of intergovernmental relations in short term has a significant impact on Chinese exports. A higher frequency of government contacts is not conducive to Chinese export growth, while the closer the government is to the destination country, the more likely it is to export to that country. On the other hand, geographical, institutional and cultural relations also shape Chinese exports. In terms of geographical relations, larger geographical distance will reduce China's tendency to export to a region, but the adjacency relationship will increase China's tendency to export to a region. The impact of different institutional relations on China's exports is different. As for economic institution distance, after considering the impact of economic factors, there is no evidence that it has an additional impact on China's export. However, the increase in the distance of the legal institutions will cause China not to export to a region. Cultural relations also have a major impact on China's export. Larger cultural distance will inhibit Chinese exports to a region. And if China has a greater cultural influence on a region, it will be easier for China to export to the region. In addition, the results of further industry level research indicate that geo-relations have different impacts on the export of different products. The most obvious commonality is that the intimacy between regions has a significant impact on the export of clothes, machines and transportations. this paper believes that when considering the issue of maintaining China's competitiveness in export, geopolitical relations should be considered in the same way as factors such as technological progress.

Key words: geo-relations, political relation, Chinese export growth, industrial heterogeneity

摘要：

本文结合现有文献中的方法和自身思考构建了地缘关系指标体系，利用Google的GDELT数据库，探索地缘关系对中国出口贸易增长的作用。本文发现地缘关系在短期和长期维度上对国家出口贸易带来的涉及政治、地理、制度和文化等方面的多重影响。一方面，政治关系反映了短期政府间关系的波动，对中国出口的影响十分明显。其中较高的政府交往频度不利于中国出口增长，而政府亲密程度对中国出口的影响则是积极的，中国与出口目的国亲密程度越高，则越有向该国出口的倾向。另一方面，地理关系、制度关系和文化关系同样对中国出口有重要影响。在地理关系中，较大的地理距离会减小中国对一地区出口的倾向，而邻接关系会增大中国对一地区出口的倾向。不同制度关系对中国出口的影响存在差别，没有证据表明经济制度距离对中国出口有额外的影响，而法律制度距离的增大则会导致中国不向该地区出口的倾向。文化关系同样对中国出口有重大影响，其中较大的文化距离会抑制中国对一地区的出口倾向，而如果中国对一地区文化影响力较大，中国对其出口则更加容易。此外，进一步分行业研究的结果表明，不同行业的产品出口对地缘关系的响应程度既存在共性，也存在差异。其中，地区间的亲密程度对全类别产品和服装类、机械设备类、交通工具类三类产品的出口都有显著的影响。

关键词: 地缘关系, 政治关系, 中国出口增长, 行业异质性