主管单位:中国科学技术协会
主办单位:中国地理学会
承办单位:华东师范大学

World Regional Studies ›› 2020, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 659-668.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.04.2019039

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Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of terrorist attacks in the Middle East from 1970 to 2015

Wei CHEN1(), Guofang ZHAI2(), Zhixiang SHEN3, Yijun SHI4   

  1. 1.School of Geographic and Biologic Information, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China
    2.School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
    3.School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, China
    4.School of Landscape Architecture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China
  • Received:2019-01-17 Revised:2019-03-05 Online:2020-07-30 Published:2020-08-15
  • Contact: Guofang ZHAI

19702015年中东地区恐怖袭击事件的时空特征分析

陈伟1(), 翟国方2(), 沈志翔3, 施益军4   

  1. 1.南京邮电大学地理与生物信息学院,南京 210023
    2.南京大学建筑与城市规划学院,南京 210093
    3.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京 210046
    4.浙江农林大学风景园林与建筑学院,杭州 311300
  • 通讯作者: 翟国方
  • 作者简介:陈伟(1986-),男,讲师,研究方向为城市公共安全与防灾规划,E-mail: chen_wei@njupt.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金(18BZZ080);国家自然科学基金(41601139);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金一般项目(17YJAZH066)

Abstract:

The Middle East is a hot spot for terrorist activities. Based on the spatial distribution data of terrorist attacks from GTD, GIS spatial analysis method was applied in exploring the temporal and spatial characteristics of the attacks in the Middle East from 1970 to 2015. The results showed: (1) Terrorist organizations preferred to carry out attacks in border areas. More than 50% of the attacks occurred within 15km from the border, and about 80% of the attacks occurred within 35km. (2) The gravity center of terrorist attacks showed a certain spatial movement characteristics with the evolution of time. These gravity centers mainly distributed in West Asia such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan and Israel. The changes of gravity centers were spatially related to the armed conflicts and wars among the regions. (3) The terrorist attacks over the years formed three gathering areas, involving Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Algeria, while the gathering area changed over time. The major and minor gathering areas during each time period were distributed in 12 countries and regions, and the terrorist activities showed an increasingly fierce trend. (4) Generally, there was significant global spatial correlation on terrorist attacks. In different time periods, the “high-high” cluster area had a certain spatial differentiation, but the spatial gathering phenomenon of regional terrorist attacks was becoming more and more obvious.

Key words: Middle East, terrorist attack, temporal and spatial characteristics, spatial analysis

摘要:

中东作为恐怖活动的多发区域,了解其恐怖袭击的时空特征对恐怖活动治理具有重要意义。基于GTD的恐怖袭击事件空间分布数据,运用GIS空间分析方法对中东地区1970—2015年袭击事件的时空特征进行了探索,研究发现:恐怖组织偏好在边境区域活动,超过50%的袭击事件发生在距边界15km的范围内,约80%的袭击事件位于距边界35km范围内;恐怖袭击重心呈现出一定的空间迁移特征,主要分布于伊拉克、叙利亚、黎巴嫩、巴勒斯坦、约旦和以色列等西亚地区,重心的变化与地区之间的武装冲突、战争等具有空间上的关联性;历年的恐怖袭击形成了涉及伊拉克、伊朗、土耳其、以色列、约旦河西岸和加沙地带、黎巴嫩和阿尔及利亚的三处主要集聚区,同时集聚区伴随时间推移发生变化,各时间段的主、次集聚区分布于12个国家与地区,且恐怖主义活动表现出愈发激烈的趋势;恐怖袭击总体上存在显著的空间相关性,在不同时间段内,“高-高”聚类地区具有一定的空间分异性,但恐怖袭击的空间集聚现象愈加明显。

关键词: 中东地区, 恐怖袭击, 时空特征, 空间分析