Abstract:

Based on the ACLED database, geostatistics, nuclear density analysis, and buffer analysis methods are used to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and spatial agglomeration of the armed conflict in northern Myanmar, and its impact on the border areas of southwest China. The research results show that: (1) The armed conflict in northern Myanmar from 2010 to 2020 presents a sharp fluctuating trend in time, with significant phase change characteristics; there is a concentration center in the spatial distribution, showing continuous agglomeration The trend of change and the trend of agglomeration are greatly related to the continuous advancement of the "Belt and Road" initiative in Myanmar. (2) The continuous development of the armed conflict in northern Myanmar has posed a great threat to China's southwestern frontier's traditional and non-traditional security. The influx of a large number of people from the frontier who evaded war in China's border areas can easily induce drug crimes, Social issues such as illegal immigration, epidemic importation, human trafficking, cross-border gambling, religious infiltration, etc. will greatly increase the social security risks and border governance costs in border areas. These social problems can easily turn into political or diplomatic issues if they are not handled properly. Endangering the security of China's southwest border will also add variables to the relations between China and Myanmar. (3) The armed conflict in northern Myanmar forced the closure of trade ports on the one hand, and on the other hand, the conflict would cause the main traffic roads and bridges for Sino-Myanmar trade to be blown up and interrupt Sino-Myanmar trade; at the same time, the armed conflict would lead to Chinese investment in Myanmar. The project has been shelved and has become the main target of the conflict between the two parties, which has greatly increased the risk of Chinese investment in Myanmar.

Key words: armed conflict, temporal and spatial evolution, border security, Northern Myanmar, Southwestern China

摘要：

依据ACLED数据库，利用地学统计、核密度分析和缓冲区分析等方法，对缅北武装冲突的时空演变特征、空间集聚性及对中国西南边疆地区产生的影响进行分析，研究结果表明：（1）时间上，2010—2020年缅北武装冲突呈现阶段性剧烈波动变化的特征；在空间分布上，存在集聚中心且集聚趋势愈加明显，集聚态势与“一带一路”倡议在缅不断推进有极大关联。（2）缅北武装冲突持续发展给中国西南边疆地区的传统安全及非传统安全带来了极大的威胁，大量避战边民涌入中国边疆地区，极易在涌入地区产生毒品犯罪、非法移民、疫情输入、人口贩卖、跨境赌博、宗教渗透等社会问题，将极大地增加边疆地区的社会安全风险与边疆治理成本，这些社会问题若处理不当易转变为政治或外交问题，不仅危及中国西南边疆安全，还会给中缅两国关系增添变数。（3）缅北武装冲突一方面会迫使中缅边境贸易口岸关闭，另一方面会造成中缅贸易的主要交通公路及桥梁被炸毁而中断中缅贸易；同时武装冲突会导致中国在缅投资项目搁置，并成为冲突双方争夺的主要目标，极大增加了我国对缅投资风险。

关键词: 武装冲突, 时空演变, 边疆安全, 缅北地区, 中国西南边疆