Abstract:

Nowadays, many countries and regions in the world have experienced the problem of population shrinkage brought about by the decline in permanent population. With the development of economic transformation and the construction of new-type urbanization, the urban-rural and inter-regional flow of population has accelerated, and the shrinkage of regional population has become a common problem. Based on this, this paper selects the population data of Guizhou counties from 2008 to 2017, using the annual average population change rate to measure the spatial trend of population shrinkage. A Multi-Scale Geographic Weighted Regression Model (MGWR) is chosen to explore the influencing factors of the characteristics of the population change in Guizhou counties. We have found that:(1) From 2008 to 2012, the population shrinkage of Guizhou counties increased significantly, especially in the western and southern regions. Between 2013 and 2017, the population shrinkage counties in Guizhou decreased sharply, and it was mainly concentrated in the severe rocky desertification area in the southwest. (2) From 2008 to 2017, the main types of population shrinkage in Guizhou counties were phased shrinkage, followed by continuous growth, while continuous contraction was the least prevalent. (3) Social economic and natural environmental factors have significantly different impact on the population shrinkage of Guizhou counties. The primary driving factor for population shrinkage in Guizhou counties is government fiscal expenditure, followed by topographical fluctuations. Factors such as the distance to prefecture-level cities and provincial capitals have a greater impact, while the proportion of non-rocky desertification areas, per capita GDP, and the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries had a relatively smaller influence.

Key words: population shrinkage, MGWR, population distribution, population growth rate, Guizhou

摘要：

人口是一种重要的社会经济资源，其收缩态势关系着区域社会经济的可持续发展性和平稳性。基于2008—2017年贵州县域人口数据，利用年均人口变化率公式测算人口收缩的空间态势，并选用多尺度地理加权回归模型（MGWR）定量探讨贵州县域人口变化特征的影响因素。研究发现：（1） 2008—2012年，贵州县域人口收缩区域增长显著，尤其西部与南部地带；2013—2017年，贵州县域人口收缩区域锐减，且主要集中在西南部重度石漠化区域。（2）2008—2017年，贵州县域人口收缩类型以阶段收缩为主，持续增长次之，持续收缩最少。（3）社会经济和自然环境各因素对贵州县域人口收缩的影响具有显著差别，政府财政支出是人口收缩的主要驱动因素，地形起伏度次之，到地级市中心距离和到省会距离影响较大，非石漠化地域占比、人均GDP和二三产值占比影响相对较小。

关键词: 人口收缩, MGWR, 人口分布, 人口增长率, 贵州