Analysis of trade connections and influencing factors between Caribbean countries and great powers

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.01.20230209

Abstract

Abstract:

Taking the trade network between Caribbean countries and major powers as the research object, selects bilateral import and export trade data between the Caribbean countries and related major powers from 2001 to 2021, uses the social network analysis method to quantitatively study the degree of centrality and structural equivalence of the trade network between Caribbean countries and major powers, measures the economic dependence of Caribbean countries on major powers, and uses QAP regression model to explore GDP, population, distance, language, trade agreements and government efficiency index on the evolution of trade networks. Research has shown that:1)During the research period, the trade network density approached 1, and the trade intensity of the whole network continued to increase; The main trading partner of Caribbean countries is the United States, and the economic strength of countries within the network is severely uneven; There are differences in the roles of the six major countries (China, the United States, Russia, France, the Netherlands, and the UK) and the two major groups of Caribbean countries in the trade network. In comparison, the structures of Caribbean countries tend to be more similar, with greater similarity in roles and more similarity in trade partners. And the similarity between major countries is significantly lower than that of Caribbean countries. 2)At present, Caribbean countries have a high degree of economic dependence on the United States, but their economic dependence on China is deepening, and their dependence on Russia, France, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom is relatively close and remains low and stable. 3)GDP, population, common language and whether to sign an FTA have a significant positive impact on the evolution of this trade network; Geographical distance has a significant negative impact.

Key words: trade network, economic dependence, social network analysis, Caribbean countries, relevant great powers

摘要：

以加勒比国家与大国贸易网络为研究对象，选取2001—2021年加勒比地区与相关大国的双边进出口贸易数据，运用社会网络分析方法，定量研究加勒比国家与主要大国贸易网络的中心性及结构同型性，测度加勒比各国对大国的经济依赖情况，并运用QAP回归模型探究贸易网络演变的影响因素。结果表明：①研究期内，贸易网络密度接近1，整个网络的贸易强度不断提升；加勒比各国主要贸易对象为美国，网络内部各国经济实力严重不均；六个相关大国（中、美、俄、法、荷、英）与加勒比各国这两大团体在贸易网络中的角色存在差异。相较而言，加勒比各国之间结构越趋于同型，角色相似性越大，贸易对象国更为相似。②加勒比各国对美国的经济依赖度较高，对中国的经济依赖不断加深，对俄、法、荷、英的依赖程度较为接近且始终保持低位稳定状态。③经济发展水平、人口、共同语言、是否签订FTA对该贸易网络演变具有较显著的正向影响，地理距离为显著负向影响因素。

关键词: 贸易网络, 经济依赖度, 社会网络分析, 加勒比国家, 相关大国

Yuyang YAO, Shiqi BA, Gan LI, Ying CHEN. Analysis of trade connections and influencing factors between Caribbean countries and great powers[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(1): 56-69.

姚宇阳, 巴士奇, 李淦, 陈瑛. 加勒比国家与大国的贸易联系及影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(1): 56-69.

Figures/Tables 6

Fig.1 Trade network between Caribbean countries and related major powers from 2001 to 2021

Tab.1 Ranking of degree centrality of countries from 2001 to 2021

国家（缩写）	2001年		2008年		2015年		2021年
国家（缩写）	中心性/%	排名	中心性/%	排名	中心性/%	排名	中心性/%	排名
美国（USA）	8.045	1	10.511	1	8.544	1	8.299	1
中国（CHN）	2.072	5	5.632	2	5.446	2	6.025	2
墨西哥（MEX）	3.527	2	3.814	3	3.434	3	3.546	3
英国（GBR）	2.851	3	3.266	4	2.001	4	1.848	4
荷兰（NLD）	1.626	6	2.75	5	1.536	5	1.812	5
法国（FRA）	2.122	4	2.643	6	1.529	6	1.505	6
俄罗斯（RUS）	0.469	7	1.63	7	0.807	7	1.254	7
哥伦比亚（COL）	0.214	9	0.435	9	0.315	8	0.283	8
危地马拉（GTM）	0.097	13	0.146	14	0.123	11	0.138	9
多米尼加共和国（DOM）	0.106	12	0.16	13	0.115	12	0.125	10
哥斯达黎加（CRI）	0.119	10	0.177	11	0.113	13	0.121	11
巴拿马（PAN）	0.057	16	0.165	12	0.131	10	0.098	12
洪都拉斯（HND）	0.072	15	0.119	15	0.075	14	0.08	13
萨尔瓦多（SLV）	0.109	11	0.095	16	0.072	15	0.077	14
尼加拉瓜（NIC）	0.028	20	0.046	18	0.052	17	0.062	15
特立尼达和多巴哥（TTO）	0.09	14	0.18	10	0.07	16	0.05	16
委内瑞拉（VEN）	0.402	8	0.693	8	0.246	9	0.03	17
圭亚那（GUY）	0.01	23	0.013	23	0.011	22	0.023	18
牙买加（JAM）	0.047	17	0.07	17	0.026	18	0.022	19
海地（HTI）	0.015	21	0.028	21	0.025	19	0.021	20
巴哈马（BHS）	0.028	19	0.035	20	0.024	20	0.021	21
古巴（CUB）	0.036	18	0.044	19	0.023	21	0.011	22
巴巴多斯（BRB）	0.014	22	0.015	22	0.008	23	0.008	23
苏里南（SUR）	0.007	25	0.013	24	0.008	24	0.006	24
圣卢西亚（LCA）	0.004	26	0.006	27	0.005	26	0.006	25
伯利兹（BLZ）	0.008	24	0.009	26	0.006	25	0.005	26
安提瓜和巴布达（ATG）	0.003	27	0.01	25	0.004	27	0.004	27
多米尼克（DMA）	0.003	28	0.003	31	0.001	31	0.003	28
圣文森特和格林纳丁斯（VCT）	0.003	29	0.003	28	0.002	28	0.002	29
格林纳达（GRD）	0.003	30	0.003	29	0.002	29	0.002	30
圣基茨和尼维斯（KNA）	0.002	31	0.003	30	0.002	30	0.001	31

Fig.3 The structural equivalence of 31 countries in 2021

Fig.4 Economic dependence between Caribbean countries and related major powers from 2001 to 2021

Tab.2 Indicator selection and processing

变量	含义	描述与说明	矩阵处理
GDP	国家经济发展水平	体现了一国经济规模总量，潜在的贸易流量及是否有利于贸易关系的建立	运用各国GDP数据构建GDP差值矩阵
人口	各国人口数	体现了一国消费市场的大小，一般认为，消费市场需求与人口规模存在直接相关关系	运用各国人口数据构建人口差值矩阵
距离^*	各国首都间的直线距离	距离影响运输成本，距离越大成本越高	运用各国之间距离数据构建地理距离矩阵
语言	各国使用的语言是否相同	共同语言更便于交流，增加认同感，越有利于建立贸易关系	构建语言二值矩阵，共同语言的国家赋值为1，反之则为0
FTA	自由贸易协定	签署自由贸易协定的国家间具备贸易互惠性，可减少成员之间的贸易障碍，降低贸易成本	构建FTA二值矩阵，同属一个FTA协议赋值为1，反之为0
政府效能	政府效能指数	公共服务质量以及政策制定和实施质量，一般认为政府效能越高越有利于贸易关系的建立	运用各国政府效能指数数据构建效能指数差值矩阵

Tab.3 QAP regression analysis results of trade networks between Caribbean countries and related major powers

变量	2001年	2008年	2015年	2021年
GDP	0.316^***	0.275^**	0.187^**	0.136^**
人口	0.033	0.170^**	0.136^**	0.234^**
距离	-0.046	-0.142	-0.152^**	-0.175^**
语言	0.103^**	0.084^**	0.066^**	0.106^**
FTA	0.009	0.011	0.134^**	0.137^**
政府效能指数	0.022	0.059	0.019	0.035
$A d j R - S q r$	0.100	0.193	0.154	0.151

Tab.3 QAP regression analysis results of trade networks between Caribbean countries and related major powers

变量	2001年	2008年	2015年	2021年
GDP	0.316^***	0.275^**	0.187^**	0.136^**
人口	0.033	0.170^**	0.136^**	0.234^**
距离	-0.046	-0.142	-0.152^**	-0.175^**
语言	0.103^**	0.084^**	0.066^**	0.106^**
FTA	0.009	0.011	0.134^**	0.137^**
政府效能指数	0.022	0.059	0.019	0.035
$A d j R - S q r$	0.100	0.193	0.154	0.151

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