Abstract:

In light of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is critical for China to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution features of the global energy trade pattern and the level of energy security. Based on the energy bilateral trade and socio-economic data of each country from 2016 to 2022, this paper establishes the world energy trade network, and energy security evaluation indexes from three dimensions of security of supply, security of use and social development environment, and utilizes the metabolic GM(1,1) model to simulate the world energy security pattern under the situation of non-outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict; and through the comparison of the actual situation, explore the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on world's energy security. The results shows: ① The world energy network has grown more consolidated since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, its connectivity has decreased over time. The energy trade network is more vulnerable to sporadic disruptions and less stable, but it is also more resilient against deliberate assaults. A monocentric "core-edge" structure, with the United States as the strong core and other nations developing in a balanced manner, characterizes the global energy trading network. ② Russia's energy exports have suffered tremendously; the export pattern gradually shows a "eastward" tendency toward the Asia-Pacific area. The degree of reliance on Russian energy has considerably dropped for Germany, Finland, and Poland as a result of the sanctions imposed on Russia; on the other hand, the level of reliance on Russian energy has increased for Hungary, India, and China as a result of the country's growing energy cooperation with Russia. ③ Asian countries are more obviously affected by the negative impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the danger has increased; the energy security level of the European region is developing positively; the African region, constrained by the conditions of its own economic development, is still the world's most dangerous region in terms of energy security; and North America, South America and Oceania, due to their long distance, are less affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. ④ Among the sub-dimensions, the "primary energy production-to-consumption ratio" indicator in the security of supply dimension has the greatest impact on energy security. The security of use dimension's indicator weights have been rising annually, meaning that the green transformation of energy sources is becoming more and more crucial for raising the level of energy security.

Key words: Russian-Ukrainian conflict, energy trade, energy security, time-space evolution

摘要：

在俄乌冲突的背景下，对世界能源贸易格局以及能源安全水平的时空演变特征进行分析，对新环境下中国能源安全的发展具有重要意义。基于2016—2022年各国的能源双边贸易及社会经济数据，建立世界能源贸易网络，从供应安全、使用安全和社会发展环境3个维度来建立能源安全评价指标，利用新陈代谢GM（1，1）模型模拟俄乌冲突未爆发情况下的世界能源安全格局；通过与实际情况相对比，探究俄乌冲突对世界能源安全的影响。研究发现：①整体来看，俄乌冲突爆发以来，世界能源网络的连通性有所弱化，国际能源贸易关系逐渐简化，世界能源贸易网络日趋集团化。能源贸易网络遭到随机性破坏的可能性升高，网络内部的稳定性下降，但面对针对性攻击的抵抗程度有所提高。世界能源贸易网络呈现以美国为强核心，其他国家均衡化发展的单中心“核心-边缘”结构。②俄罗斯能源出口受到较大影响，出口量大幅降低，出口格局出现了逐步向亚太地区转移的“东进”态势。以德国、芬兰和波兰为代表对俄罗斯发起制裁的国家对俄罗斯能源的依赖水平明显下降；以匈牙利、印度和中国为代表的加深与俄罗斯能源合作的国家，对俄罗斯能源的依赖水平有所提升。③在空间上，亚洲国家受俄乌冲突的负面影响较为明显；欧洲地区能源安全水平向好发展；非洲地区受自身经济发展条件的制约，仍是世界能源安全最危险的地区；北美洲、南美洲和大洋洲则因距离较远，受俄乌冲突的影响较小。④分维度来看，供应安全维度中的“一次能源生产与消费比”指标对能源安全的影响程度最深，使用安全维度各项指标的权重逐年增加，能源绿色转型对能源安全水平提升的重要性日益增加。

关键词: 俄乌冲突, 能源贸易, 能源安全, 时空演变