Abstract:

Russia plays an important role in the reshaping of the global energy landscape. Clarifying the spatial and temporal pattern evolution of Russia's foreign energy trade is of practical significance for China's energy policy making. Based on the global energy trade data from 2003 to 2021, the spatial distribution, interdependence pattern and competition situation of Russia's foreign energy trade are examined using the trade advantage model and the trade competition model. It is found that Russia's energy trade is highly sensitive to the international environment, with its main imports shifting from crude oil to natural gas, while its exports have always been dominated by crude oil. The sources of energy imports are highly concentrated in the countries around the Caspian Sea, and the concentration of imports fluctuates widely; the concentration of Russia's energy export market and the number of export destinations have increased steadily, with energy exports to China growing rapidly. In general, Russia's advantage in energy trade is declining, with its highly advantageous area moving from Central and Eastern Europe to North Africa, West Asia and other regions. Russia faces increasing competition for international energy exports, particularly in European and Asian markets. Its competitive relationship with Norway and Saudi Arabia is tending to ease, while competition with the United States and Australia has increased sharply.

Key words: geoeconomics, energy trade, spatial distribution, interdependence, competition, Russia

摘要：

俄罗斯在全球能源版图重构过程中扮演着重要角色，厘清俄罗斯对外能源贸易的时空格局演化，对中国制定能源政策具有现实意义。基于2003—2021年全球能源贸易数据，运用贸易优势模型和贸易竞争模型，对俄罗斯对外能源贸易的空间分布、优势格局、竞争态势进行了探讨。研究发现：俄罗斯对外能源贸易对国际环境高度敏感，主要进口产品从原油转向天然气，出口产品始终以原油为主。能源进口来源高度集中于里海周边国家，进口集中度年际波动较大；俄罗斯能源出口市场集中度与出口目的国数量均呈现稳步攀升的态势，对中国的能源出口增长迅速。俄罗斯对外能源贸易优势总体呈衰退趋势，高度优势区由中东欧向北非、西亚等地区转移。随着国际能源出口竞争不断加剧，俄罗斯在欧洲和东亚地区的市场地位日益受到挑战。近年来，俄罗斯与挪威、沙特的竞争关系趋于缓和，而与美国、澳大利亚的竞争急剧激化。

关键词: 地缘经济, 能源贸易, 空间分布, 相互依赖, 竞争, 俄罗斯