Abstract:

In the unprecedented upheaval of the past century, trade sanctions have emerged as a coercive tool affecting international relations and trade dynamics. Based on global trade sanction data from 1950 to 2021, this article constructs trade sanction networks and international relationship networks. Through methods such as similarity analysis, cluster analysis, and network community detection, it systematically studies the evolution trends of international relations in the context of trade sanctions. The study revealed significant differences in the roles and target set trends among countries within the trade sanctions network. Based on these differences, countries can be categorized into two groups: One category, primarily comprising Western developed countries, tends to repeatedly initiate sanctions against relatively fixed target countries and plays a dominant role in sanction activities. The other category, primarily consisting of developing countries, tends to bear sanctions more passively. In the international relationship networks, a notable decline in community similarity is observed when considering the differences in years exceeding 29 years, indicating a potential lifespan of approximately 29 years for international relations patterns. Further exploration of the network structural similarity between international relations and international trade reveals a decreasing impact of international relations on international trade. Through the aforementioned research, we provide new insights into the evolution trends of international relations from the perspective of trade sanction networks.

Key words: trade sanctions, international relations, complex networks, similarity analysis

摘要：

世界百年未有之大变局下，贸易制裁已经成为影响国际关系和贸易格局的强制性工具。本文基于1950—2021年全球贸易制裁数据，构建贸易制裁网络和国际关系网络，通过相似性分析、聚类分析、网络社团识别等手段，系统研究了贸易制裁网络中国际关系的演化趋势。研究发现，各国在贸易制裁网络中存在显著的角色差异和目标集合趋势差异。根据这些差异将各国区分出两种类别：一类主要包含西方发达国家，更倾向于针对相对固定的目标国反复地发起制裁，在制裁活动中扮演支配性角色；另一类则以发展中国家为主体，更多被动地承受制裁。在国际关系网络中，社团相似性会在年份差超过29年后急剧下降，表明国际关系格局有潜在寿命限制，而非一成不变；进一步挖掘国际关系与国际贸易的网络结构相似性后发现，国际关系对国际贸易的影响趋于下降。本研究可以为挖掘国际关系演变趋势提供新的视角。

关键词: 贸易制裁, 国际关系, 复杂网络, 相似性分析