Abstract:

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is an important step towards a low-carbon transition in the energy system and the achievement of global climate goals. The core competitiveness of PV generation is highly dependent on the integration of the whole industrial chain.Based on the industrial chain perspective, the global trade pattern of key upstream and midstream segments of the PV industry from 2010-2020 is studied from both macro-scale geographic patterns and social network analysis, to reveal new changes in PV trade and geopolitical factors in the context of trade protection. The study finds that: ① The global silicon trade pattern is significantly polarized, evolving from a "Single Arch" shape with the US flowing to East Asia to a "Double Arches" shape with Europe and the US flowing to East Asia, and finally a "East-West Axis" structure with a strong interconnection between Europe, the US and Asia. ② The scale of the upstream silicon trade network is fluctuating, while the midstream trade network is more complex, with more participating parties, more flows and more significant small-world feature. The structure of the "core-edge" polarization in PV cell trade has intensified, with regions in the semi-edge layer moving into the core layer or falling into the edge layer, and the core regions firmly controlling global trade, with China, the US, Germany, Japan and South Korea occupying the core position in both segments. In addition, China, the US and Germany take intermediary functions in the upstream and midstream trade of PV. ③ China's dependence of PV industry upstream and midstream is low, occupying a favorable position in trade relations. While the US does not occupy the upper hand in the PV industry upstream and midstream trade relations, relying on China for PV cells. And advantages of Germany gradually fade in the whole industry chain. ④ Global PV industry trade relations and trade war is essentially a geopolitical struggle between China and the US, which continues to promote the "Indo-Pacific strategy" to form a "C-shaped" siege on China. Moreover, the US forced western countries to disassociate themselves from China in terms of technology and industry. However, it is difficult to hinder their trade cooperation with China in the field of photovoltaics in the short term.

Key words: photovoltaic (PV) chains, global trade patterns, complex networks, geopolitics

摘要：

光伏发电是保障能源体系低碳转型、实现全球气候目标的重要举措，光伏产业的核心竞争力高度依赖全产业链整合优势，欧美国家试图通过贸易保护措施保护本国光伏产业。因此，厘清全球光伏产业贸易格局演变背后的地缘政治关系，有利于我国光伏产业的持续发展。本文基于产业链视角，对2010—2020年光伏产业上中游环节全球贸易格局进行分析和对比，厘清各主要大国的地位和贸易关系，并剖析贸易保护措施对全球光伏产业贸易格局演变的影响及背后的地缘政治因素。研究发现：①受光伏产业贸易保护与反制措施的影响，全球硅料贸易在保持显著极化格局的同时，逐步由以美国向东亚流动的“单拱”格局转变为欧美向东亚流动的“双拱”格局，最后演变为欧-美-亚相互强联系的“东西轴线”格局；中游光伏电池及组件贸易联系更为紧密，贸易格局从亚洲向欧洲流动的“单拱”转变为亚洲向美国流动的“单拱”，最后演变为以中国的多元化出口和东南亚向美国流动所构成的“一核一拱”格局；欧美和亚洲在光伏产业链上、中游环节间存在着高度的互补性，贸易摩擦产生了双输影响，但也促进了全球光伏产业生产和贸易的多元化。②上游硅料贸易网络关系稀疏、始终由中美德日韩等少数大国垄断着核心地位；中游环节贸易网络的参与地区更多、贸易联系更为紧密，“核心-边缘”结构变动加剧，亚洲逐渐占据更重要的地位；中美德三国在光伏上中游贸易中均承担着重要的中介职能，中美日德英法六国在上游和中游环节贸易中自由度较高。③从主要光伏大国在贸易格局演变中的优劣势变化来看，中国光伏产业上中游对外依赖度低、在贸易关系中居于优势地位；美国在光伏产业上中游贸易中优势下降，对“非中国制造的中国光伏产品”高度依赖；而以德国为代表的欧洲国家在全产业链的贸易优势渐消。④全球光伏产业贸易关系及贸易战本质上是中美欧地缘政治斗争，但美欧短期内难以将中国排挤出全球光伏产业链而独立运转；中国应继续保持全产业链技术领先优势，并积极开展贸易多元化和出海投资，以保证光伏产业链持续健康发展。

关键词: 光伏产业链, 全球贸易格局, 复杂网络, 地缘政治