Study on the Hong Kong elderly's willingness of cross-border elderly care in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.09.20241041

World Regional Studies ›› 2026, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (9): 161-177.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.09.20241041

Study on the Hong Kong elderly's willingness of cross-border elderly care in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Yiwen ZHU¹(), Xiang YAN⁴^,⁵, Zixuan HAN¹^,²^,⁶, Shenjing HE¹^,³^,⁷()

^1.Faculty of Architecture, Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, , Hong Kong 999077, China
^2.School of Clinical Medicine, Department of Orthopaedics & Traumatology, Hong Kong 999077, China, Hong Kong 999077, China
^3.Urban Systems Institute, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
^4.College of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610051, China
^5.Institute of Urbanization Strategy and Architecture Research, Sichuan University, , Chengdu 610051, China
^6.Orthopaedic Center, The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen 518053, China
^7.Clinical Oncology Center, The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen 518053, China

Received:2024-11-25 Revised:2025-06-06 Online:2026-09-15 Published:2026-10-08
Contact: Shenjing HE

香港老年人在粤港澳大湾区的跨境养老意愿研究

祝怡文¹(), 严祥⁴^,⁵, 韩子璇¹^,²^,⁶, 何深静¹^,³^,⁷()

^1.香港大学，建筑学院城市规划及设计系，香港 999077
^2.香港大学，李嘉诚医学院临床医学部矫形及创伤外科学系，香港 999077
^3.香港大学，城市系统研究院，香港 999077
^4.四川大学，建筑与环境学院建筑系，成都 610051
^5.四川大学，城镇化战略与建筑研究所，成都 610051
^6.香港大学深圳医院，骨科医学中心，深圳 518053
^7.香港大学深圳医院，肿瘤医学中心，深圳 518053

通讯作者: 何深静
作者简介:祝怡文（2001―），女，博士研究生，研究方向为健康地理、城市大数据，E-mail：ywzhu129@connect.hku.hk。
基金资助:
香港特区政府特首政策组策略性公共政策研究项目(S2021.A8.027.21S);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42371211)

Abstract

Abstract:

Hong Kong has entered the "super-aged society". Cross-border elderly care cooperation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) will not only reduce the burden of elderly care in Hong Kong, but also promote the development of "silver economy" in mainland China. However, systematic research on the willingness of the Hong Kong elderly for cross-border elderly care and its influencing factors remains scarce. Based on a large-scale questionnaire survey, this paper employed discriminant analysis to predict the willingness of cross-border elderly care of the Hong Kong elderly with different socio-demographic characteristics, aiming to provide practical guidance for future research and policy formulation. The findings are as follows: ① Among 1131 Hong Kong old people, 46.32% preferred Hong Kong for elderly care, 43.42% preferred mainland China for elderly care, and 10.34% preferred both places for elderly care. ② The Hong Kong elderly who stayed in mainland China for a longer time, had a stronger social network in mainland China, and had higher proficiency in Mandarin preferred elderly care in mainland China, while those with higher education level preferred elderly care in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, birthplace, marital status and economic level were also important discriminating factors that affected their willingness of cross-border elderly care; ③ The overall discrimination accuracy of the model was 79.6%, the correct discrimination rates of the "elderly care in Hong Kong" group, the "elderly care in mainland China" group, and the "elderly care in both Hong Kong and mainland China" group were 87.2%, 84.3%, and 25.6% respectively. Based on the status quo of cross-border elderly care and the results above, three potential suggestions are put forward to promote the development of cross-border elderly care in the GBA, including promoting the standardization of cross-border elderly care services and mutual recognition of professional qualifications, enhancing cross-border healthcare information docking, and formulating differentiated policies and measures for specific elderly care groups.

Key words: the elderly, cross-border elderly care, cross-border healthcare, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Hong Kong, discriminant analysis

摘要：

当前，香港已步入“超高龄社会”，老年人赴粤港澳大湾区跨境养老，既有效减轻了香港的养老负担，又能促进内地“银发经济”的发展。然而，当前对香港老年人跨境养老意愿及其影响因素的系统研究仍较缺乏。本文基于大规模问卷调查，运用判别分析法预测不同特征香港老年人的跨境养老意愿，旨在为后续研究及政策制定提供决策支撑。研究发现：①1 131名受访者中，46.32 %选择留港养老，43.42 %选择内地养老，10.34 %选择同时在两地养老；②香港老年人群体中，在内地逗留时间较长、内地社交网络较强及精通普通话者倾向于内地养老，教育水平较高者倾向于香港养老，同时出生地、婚姻状况、经济水平也是左右其养老地选择的重要判别因素；③模型总体判别分类正确率为79.6 %，“香港养老” “内地养老” “同时在两地养老”3组的正确判别率分别为87.2 %、84.3 %、25.6 %。结合跨境养老现状与研究结果，本文提出推进跨境养老服务标准化与专业资格互认、增强跨境医疗信息对接、为特定养老人群制定差异化措施3个建议以推动大湾区跨境养老发展。

关键词: 老年人, 跨境养老, 跨境医疗, 粤港澳大湾区, 香港, 判别分析

Yiwen ZHU, Xiang YAN, Zixuan HAN, Shenjing HE. Study on the Hong Kong elderly's willingness of cross-border elderly care in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area[J]. World Regional Studies, 2026, 35(9): 161-177.

祝怡文, 严祥, 韩子璇, 何深静. 香港老年人在粤港澳大湾区的跨境养老意愿研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2026, 35(9): 161-177.

Figures/Tables 9

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判别关键变量		分类	百分比/ 平均值±标准差(n=1 131)/%	养老方式（预测变量）/%
判别关键变量		分类	百分比/ 平均值±标准差(n=1 131)/%	同时在内地和香港养老(n=117)	香港养老 (n=525)	内地养老 (n=489)
1）性别		女性	24.40	17.95	21.33	29.24
2）婚育情况	婚姻状况	已婚或有固定伴侣	68.61	77.78	73.33	61.35
	子女数量	无	9.46	12.82	7.43	10.84
		1个	23.87	18.80	25.14	23.72
		2个	40.23	35.90	39.05	42.54
		3个及以上	26.44	32.48	28.38	22.90
3）家庭月收入		不到2万港币	45.62	47.01	41.14	50.10
		2万~＜4万港币	24.49	17.95	24.19	26.38
		4万~＜6万港币	14.15	18.80	15.62	11.45
		6万~＜8万港币	7.43	5.98	10.86	4.09
		8万~＜10万港币	3.09	1.71	3.81	2.66
		10万港币及以上	5.22	8.55	4.38	5.32
4）最近一年在内地的时间		少于30天	45.98	32.48	85.33	6.95
		30~90天	5.13	12.82	5.33	3.07
		90天及以上	48.89	54.70	9.33	89.98
5）健康状况（SF-36量表）		身体健康状况	81.14±17.33	83.01±16.92	81.21±16.12	80.63±18.63
5）健康状况（SF-36量表）		精神健康状况	77.49±14.48	78.14±14.47	78.87±13.42	75.85±15.40
6）信息素养	教育水平	高中或以下	76.39	76.07	81.33	71.17
		大专（副学士）	13.53	13.68	11.24	15.95
		学士及以上	10.08	10.26	7.43	12.88
	普通话水平	不流利	15.29	6.84	22.66	9.41
		一般	36.78	40.17	40.00	32.52
		流利	47.93	52.99	37.33	58.07
	粤语水平	不流利	1.33	0.00	0.95	2.04
		一般	1.86	0.85	2.10	1.84
		流利	96.82	99.15	96.95	96.12
7）社交网络	在内地亲属数量	无（0人）	32.63	23.93	49.52	16.56
		1~2人	27.59	33.33	27.81	25.97
		3~5人	24.76	27.35	16.00	33.54
		6人及以上	15.03	15.38	6.67	23.93
	在内地朋友数量	无（0人）	25.64	20.51	40.57	10.84
		1~2人	36.16	41.03	30.29	41.31
		3~5人	29.00	29.06	20.76	37.83
		6人及以上	9.20	9.40	8.38	10.02
8）出生地		香港	42.18	34.19	49.71	35.99
		内地	55.61	64.96	47.05	62.58
		其他地区	2.21	0.85	3.24	1.43
9）媒体使用习惯	香港-报纸、杂志	频繁使用	6.28	4.27	10.66	2.04
		有时	16.53	22.22	23.24	7.98
		很少	24.31	28.21	35.62	11.25
		从来没有	52.87	45.30	30.48	78.73
	香港-广播电台、电视台	频繁使用	50.31	50.42	54.67	45.60
		有时	27.32	23.93	31.62	23.52
		很少	14.15	20.51	11.24	15.75
		从来没有	8.22	5.13	2.48	15.13
	香港-互联网、手机apps	频繁使用	52.25	53.85	61.33	42.13
		有时	24.49	32.48	23.43	23.72
		很少	19.54	12.82	13.52	27.61
		从来没有	3.71	0.85	1.71	6.54
	内地-报纸、杂志	频繁使用	0.62	0.00	0.19	1.23
		有时	2.48	4.27	2.29	2.25
		很少	7.25	6.84	10.10	4.29
		从来没有	89.66	88.89	87.43	92.23
	内地-广播电台、电视台	频繁使用	42.80	41.02	12.19	76.08
		有时	15.92	23.93	14.29	15.75
		很少	11.32	17.95	16.57	4.09
		从来没有	29.97	17.09	56.95	4.09
	内地-互联网、手机apps	频繁使用	48.99	53.85	30.85	67.28
		有时	26.61	31.62	31.62	20.04
		很少	19.01	11.97	27.43	11.66
		从来没有	5.39	2.56	10.10	1.02
10）对香港医疗的满意度：是否同意“香港具有优质的医疗服务”		同意	89.31	89.75	88.00	90.59
		中立	10.17	8.55	11.24	9.41
		不同意	0.54	1.71	0.76	0.00

判别关键变量		分类	百分比/ 平均值±标准差(n=1 131)/%	养老方式（预测变量）/%
判别关键变量		分类	百分比/ 平均值±标准差(n=1 131)/%	同时在内地和香港养老(n=117)	香港养老 (n=525)	内地养老 (n=489)
1）性别		女性	24.40	17.95	21.33	29.24
2）婚育情况	婚姻状况	已婚或有固定伴侣	68.61	77.78	73.33	61.35
	子女数量	无	9.46	12.82	7.43	10.84
		1个	23.87	18.80	25.14	23.72
		2个	40.23	35.90	39.05	42.54
		3个及以上	26.44	32.48	28.38	22.90
3）家庭月收入		不到2万港币	45.62	47.01	41.14	50.10
		2万~＜4万港币	24.49	17.95	24.19	26.38
		4万~＜6万港币	14.15	18.80	15.62	11.45
		6万~＜8万港币	7.43	5.98	10.86	4.09
		8万~＜10万港币	3.09	1.71	3.81	2.66
		10万港币及以上	5.22	8.55	4.38	5.32
4）最近一年在内地的时间		少于30天	45.98	32.48	85.33	6.95
		30~90天	5.13	12.82	5.33	3.07
		90天及以上	48.89	54.70	9.33	89.98
5）健康状况（SF-36量表）		身体健康状况	81.14±17.33	83.01±16.92	81.21±16.12	80.63±18.63
5）健康状况（SF-36量表）		精神健康状况	77.49±14.48	78.14±14.47	78.87±13.42	75.85±15.40
6）信息素养	教育水平	高中或以下	76.39	76.07	81.33	71.17
		大专（副学士）	13.53	13.68	11.24	15.95
		学士及以上	10.08	10.26	7.43	12.88
	普通话水平	不流利	15.29	6.84	22.66	9.41
		一般	36.78	40.17	40.00	32.52
		流利	47.93	52.99	37.33	58.07
	粤语水平	不流利	1.33	0.00	0.95	2.04
		一般	1.86	0.85	2.10	1.84
		流利	96.82	99.15	96.95	96.12
7）社交网络	在内地亲属数量	无（0人）	32.63	23.93	49.52	16.56
		1~2人	27.59	33.33	27.81	25.97
		3~5人	24.76	27.35	16.00	33.54
		6人及以上	15.03	15.38	6.67	23.93
	在内地朋友数量	无（0人）	25.64	20.51	40.57	10.84
		1~2人	36.16	41.03	30.29	41.31
		3~5人	29.00	29.06	20.76	37.83
		6人及以上	9.20	9.40	8.38	10.02
8）出生地		香港	42.18	34.19	49.71	35.99
		内地	55.61	64.96	47.05	62.58
		其他地区	2.21	0.85	3.24	1.43
9）媒体使用习惯	香港-报纸、杂志	频繁使用	6.28	4.27	10.66	2.04
		有时	16.53	22.22	23.24	7.98
		很少	24.31	28.21	35.62	11.25
		从来没有	52.87	45.30	30.48	78.73
	香港-广播电台、电视台	频繁使用	50.31	50.42	54.67	45.60
		有时	27.32	23.93	31.62	23.52
		很少	14.15	20.51	11.24	15.75
		从来没有	8.22	5.13	2.48	15.13
	香港-互联网、手机apps	频繁使用	52.25	53.85	61.33	42.13
		有时	24.49	32.48	23.43	23.72
		很少	19.54	12.82	13.52	27.61
		从来没有	3.71	0.85	1.71	6.54
	内地-报纸、杂志	频繁使用	0.62	0.00	0.19	1.23
		有时	2.48	4.27	2.29	2.25
		很少	7.25	6.84	10.10	4.29
		从来没有	89.66	88.89	87.43	92.23
	内地-广播电台、电视台	频繁使用	42.80	41.02	12.19	76.08
		有时	15.92	23.93	14.29	15.75
		很少	11.32	17.95	16.57	4.09
		从来没有	29.97	17.09	56.95	4.09
	内地-互联网、手机apps	频繁使用	48.99	53.85	30.85	67.28
		有时	26.61	31.62	31.62	20.04
		很少	19.01	11.97	27.43	11.66
		从来没有	5.39	2.56	10.10	1.02
10）对香港医疗的满意度：是否同意“香港具有优质的医疗服务”		同意	89.31	89.75	88.00	90.59
		中立	10.17	8.55	11.24	9.41
		不同意	0.54	1.71	0.76	0.00

变量	威尔克Lambda	F值	显著性Sig.	共线性VIF
性别 (x1)	0.990	5.811	0.003^**	1.097
教育水平 (x2)	0.987	7.349	0.001^***	1.134
家庭月收入 (x3)	0.961	4.750	0.009^**	1.101
婚姻状况 (x4)	0.997	11.175	<0.001^***	1.160
子女数量 (x5)	0.981	1.900	0.150	1.162
粤语水平 (x6)	0.997	1.889	0.152	1.075
普通话水平 (x7)	0.960	23.116	<0.001^***	1.187
最近一年在内地时间 (x8)	0.402	852.343	<0.001^***	2.822
出生地 (x9)	0.985	7.412	0.001^***	1.224
身体健康状况 (x10)	0.999	0.894	0.409	2.623
心理健康状况 (x11)	0.990	5.701	0.003^**	2.557
在内地亲属数量 (x12)	0.853	95.797	<0.001^***	1.709
在内地朋友数量 (x13)	0.936	39.328	<0.001^***	1.343
香港-报纸、杂志 (x14)	0.837	110.714	<0.001^***	1.666
香港-广播电台、电视台 (x15)	0.968	18.953	<0.001^***	1.464
香港-互联网、手机app (x16)	0.953	26.890	<0.001^***	1.819
内地-报纸、杂志 (x17)	0.999	0.396	0.673	1.285
内地-广播电台、电视台 (x18)	0.559	452.550	<0.001^***	2.960
内地-互联网、手机app (x19)	0.873	84.532	<0.001^***	2.034
对香港医疗的满意度 (x20)	0.978	13.095	<0.001^***	1.081

变量	威尔克Lambda	F值	显著性Sig.	共线性VIF
性别 (x1)	0.990	5.811	0.003^**	1.097
教育水平 (x2)	0.987	7.349	0.001^***	1.134
家庭月收入 (x3)	0.961	4.750	0.009^**	1.101
婚姻状况 (x4)	0.997	11.175	<0.001^***	1.160
子女数量 (x5)	0.981	1.900	0.150	1.162
粤语水平 (x6)	0.997	1.889	0.152	1.075
普通话水平 (x7)	0.960	23.116	<0.001^***	1.187
最近一年在内地时间 (x8)	0.402	852.343	<0.001^***	2.822
出生地 (x9)	0.985	7.412	0.001^***	1.224
身体健康状况 (x10)	0.999	0.894	0.409	2.623
心理健康状况 (x11)	0.990	5.701	0.003^**	2.557
在内地亲属数量 (x12)	0.853	95.797	<0.001^***	1.709
在内地朋友数量 (x13)	0.936	39.328	<0.001^***	1.343
香港-报纸、杂志 (x14)	0.837	110.714	<0.001^***	1.666
香港-广播电台、电视台 (x15)	0.968	18.953	<0.001^***	1.464
香港-互联网、手机app (x16)	0.953	26.890	<0.001^***	1.819
内地-报纸、杂志 (x17)	0.999	0.396	0.673	1.285
内地-广播电台、电视台 (x18)	0.559	452.550	<0.001^***	2.960
内地-互联网、手机app (x19)	0.873	84.532	<0.001^***	2.034
对香港医疗的满意度 (x20)	0.978	13.095	<0.001^***	1.081

函数	特征值	方差的%	累积%	正则相关性
1	1.722^a	98.5	98.5	0.795
2	0.026^a	1.5	100.0	0.159

Study on the Hong Kong elderly's willingness of cross-border elderly care in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

香港老年人在粤港澳大湾区的跨境养老意愿研究

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References 53

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变量	函数1	函数2	变量	函数1	函数2
（常量）	-2.804	-3.337	在内地亲属数量 (x12)	0.131	0.098
性别 (x1)	0.005	0.634	在内地朋友数量 (x13)	-0.004	-0.084
教育水平 (x2)	-0.014	-0.320	香港-报纸、杂志 (x14)	-0.024	0.497
家庭月收入 (x3)	-0.044	0.018	香港-广播电台、电视台 (x15)	-0.152	-0.169
婚姻状况 (x4)	-0.177	0.880	香港-互联网、手机app (x16)	0.037	0.446
普通话水平 (x7)	0.019	0.365	内地-广播电台、电视台 (x18)	0.322	-0.107
最近一年在内地时间 (x8)	1.203	0.512	内地-互联网、手机app (x19)	0.005	0.012
出生地 (x9)	-0.073	0.391	对香港医疗的满意度 (x20)	0.073	-0.519
心理健康状况 (x11)	-0.004	0.005

参数		养老方式	预测
参数		养老方式	1	2	3	总计
原始 ^a	计数	1	458	37	30	525
		2	37	412	40	489
		3	41	46	30	117
	%	1	87.2	7.0	5.7	100.0
		2	7.6	84.3	8.2	100.0
		3	35.0	39.3	25.6	100.0
交叉验证 ^b	计数	1	456	38	31	525
		2	36	413	40	489
		3	41	46	30	117
	%	1	86.9	7.2	5.9	100.0
		2	7.4	84.5	8.2	100.0
		3	35.0	39.3	25.6	100.0

算法	准确率	精准率	召回率	F1	曲线下方面积
Logistic Regression	0.78	0.74	0.59	0.58	0.75
Decision Tree	0.69	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.66
RF	0.80	0.53	0.60	0.56	0.77
SVM	0.71	0.48	0.54	0.50	0.71
KNN	0.76	0.51	0.57	0.54	0.69
LDA	0.80	0.76	0.61	0.60	0.77

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函数	威尔克Lambda	卡方	自由度	显著性
1	0.358	1 150.512	32	0.000
2	0.975	28.598	15	0.018

函数	威尔克Lambda	卡方	自由度	显著性
1	0.358	1 150.512	32	0.000
2	0.975	28.598	15	0.018