Abstract: The interaction between oil and geopolitics is inevitable and persistent, which profoundly affect international oil prices fluctuations and national petroleum energy security. For a long time, international oil prices fluctuations has received much attention, from the government, enterprises and scholars. However, Few research studies have quantified the dominant driver of international crude oil price fluctuations from a geopolinomic perspective. To remedy this situation, this article attempts to analyse the pattern of international crude oil supplies and the dominant driver of international crude oil prices from the geopolinomic perspective. The analysis uses time series data from January 1994 to December 2011. Using ArcGIS classifications, this study depicts the general geopolitical pattern of crude oil supply. Next, the study conducts an empirical analysis of the dominant driver of international crude oil price fluctuations. The results demonstrate that the relationship between crude oil reserves and crude oil prices are not simply linear: reserves and prices are negatively correlated with each other in periods of financial crisis and positively correlated during periods of frequent geopolitical events. Further quantitative estimation indicates that international crude oil price fluctuations are largely driven by OECD crude oil demand; in particular, this is true of the countries led by the financial industry. As time goes on, non-OECD crude oil demand and crude oil suppliers have more influence in determining international crude oil prices. Finally, the dominant effect of financial factors on crude oil price fluctuations cannot be ignored.

摘要： 本文选取1994年1月到2011年12月的时间序列数据，从地缘政治视角研究国际石油供给的格局及石油价格波动主导权。首先通过ArcGIS分类来展现石油供给的地缘政治格局总体面貌；其次对国际石油价格波动主导权进行实证分析，结果显示石油存储量与石油价格之间并非简单的线性关系，且在金融危机时期呈现负相关关系，在地缘政治事件频发时期呈现正相关关系；进一步对主导权量化估算，结果表明，国际石油价格波动主导权更多的掌控在OECD需求方，即金融业主导国家。随着时间的推移，NonOECD需求方与石油供给方对国际石油价格主导权逐渐增加，同时，金融因素对国际油价波动的主导权不容忽视。