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15 September 2015, Volume 24 Issue 03 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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New Geopolitical Economic Analysis Based on GlobalOil Supply 2015, 24(03): 1-13.  Abstract ( )   PDF (548KB) ( )   The interaction between oil and geopolitics is inevitable and persistent, which profoundly affect international oil prices fluctuations and national petroleum energy security. For a long time, international oil prices fluctuations has received much attention, from the government, enterprises and scholars. However, Few research studies have quantified the dominant driver of international crude oil price fluctuations from a geopolinomic perspective. To remedy this situation, this article attempts to analyse the pattern of international crude oil supplies and the dominant driver of international crude oil prices from the geopolinomic perspective. The analysis uses time series data from January 1994 to December 2011. Using ArcGIS classifications, this study depicts the general geopolitical pattern of crude oil supply. Next, the study conducts an empirical analysis of the dominant driver of international crude oil price fluctuations. The results demonstrate that the relationship between crude oil reserves and crude oil prices are not simply linear: reserves and prices are negatively correlated with each other in periods of financial crisis and positively correlated during periods of frequent geopolitical events. Further quantitative estimation indicates that international crude oil price fluctuations are largely driven by OECD crude oil demand; in particular, this is true of the countries led by the financial industry. As time goes on, non-OECD crude oil demand and crude oil suppliers have more influence in determining international crude oil prices. Finally, the dominant effect of financial factors on crude oil price fluctuations cannot be ignored. Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Evolvement of Regional Economic Disparities Characteristics in Africa 2015, 24(03): 34-41.  Abstract ( )   PDF (559KB) ( )   Abstract: Africa is an ancient continents wide range of latitude, where are many emerging economics. With the enhancement of traditional relationship between China and lots of African countries, the situation of China - Africa bilateral economic cooperation engage attentions from all over world. In order to figure out the characters of development of African economy and give the reference for multi-party cooperation, this paper concentrates on regional economic unequal developments in Africa. Based on the data of population and GDP, using Theil index mainly, in the consideration of industrial structure，the paper studies the regulation of spatial and temporal evolvement of regional economic disparities in five different region in Africa .At present, its most features are that :(1) The regional economic disparities in Africa is decreasing from 2004 to 2012.The curve of Theil index show “up-down-up”.(2)It is increasingly obvious that North Africa Region and South Africa Region have been economic centers in African continent among five regions .The among-region disparity is increasingly unremarkable, While the inter-region disparity components are main stream, which is the most significant contribution of regional economic disparity. The inter-region disparity in South Africa Region is largest share of the inter-region disparity in Africa, followed by Nouth Africa Region and Central Africa Region (3) The influence of economic crisis is a mirror of industrial structure of regional economy. Political environment, which can not be ignored, affect economy directly or indirectly. The disparities of industrial structure and political turbulence play a important role in regional economic disparities. Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Mechanism and Problems of Growth in Nigeria - Based on Theoretical Analysis of Dutch Disease 2015, 24(03): 42-49.  Abstract ( )   PDF (557KB) ( )   Nigeria's economic growth is closely related with rise and fall of the oil price in the world market, GDP grew rapidly in the 1970s because of oil boom and super cycle of commodity since 1999, while grew slowly or even negatively in the 1980s and 1990s because of oil price downturn. From 1999 to 2013, under the leadership of Obasanjo, Yar'Adua and Jonathan, Nigeria achieved 15-year high growth, and laid foundation for sustainable development. In April 2014, Nigeria announced adjustment of statistical base year, 2013 annual GDP increased by 89.2% to $ 509.9 billion and overtook South Africa as Africa's largest economy. South Africa's economy is more diversified and mature, but fiscal deficit, international trade deficits and frequent strikes resulted in low growth in recent years. With huge population, resources, and market potential, Nigeria shows good momentum of high growth rates, large trade surpluses, lower inflation, and controllable fiscal deficit, and qualifies for conditions of sustainable growth. The shift in economic size between the two countries is changing the economic structure and investment territory in African. Based on the Nigerian economic data from 1970 to 2013, the main symptoms of "Dutch disease" in Nigeria are analysed, including excessive reliance on the oil industry, severe de-industrialization and de-agriculturalization, low savings ratio, low investment efficiency, and serious multiple social problems such as concentration of wealth, inefficient government, corruption, rent-seeking, pauperization growth, insufficient infrastructure, rampant extremist and terrorist groups, etc.. In order to cure the "Dutch disease" in Nigeria, measures to be taken including to promote economic diversification, to develop agriculture, labor-intensive manufacturing, and oil refining, to increase investment in infrastructure and human resources, to improve the institution quality and implementation efficiency, and to create the circumstance for sustainable growth. Related Articles | Metrics

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PT-based China’s Right Strategy Choice on Arctic Route 2015, 24(03): 50-58.  Abstract ( )   PDF (670KB) ( )   Abstract:With the international context that the opening of the Arctic Route is approaching，many relational countries paid close attention on the Arctic Route , while china has few quantitative researches on strategy for the Arctic Route. this paper comprehensively analyzed China's strengths and weaknesses ,as well as opportunities and threats in terms of the Arctic Route, and created the Arctic Route right strategies Prospect Theory method based on the Prospect Theory .finally, China’s strategy that should be adopt for the Arctic Route right was confirmed. The result is helpful to analyze corresponding factors that affect China’s right on the Arctic Route and also to expand quantitative methods research. Related Articles | Metrics

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Experience and enlightenment of Brownfields Reuse at Abroad 2015, 24(03): 65-74.  Abstract ( )   PDF (725KB) ( )   With the sustainable development strategy proposed, brownfield reuse has attracted increasing attention. In order to provide a reference to theoretical studies and practical exploration of brownfield reuse in China, this article collects foreign documents and website information related to brownfields reuse and analyses "Brownfield" and other related concepts, then on this basis summarizes the experience and enlightenment of abroad (United States, European Union, Canada, and Japan) brownfield reuse. The article points out that the experience of foreign brownfield reuse has the following revelation to China: establishment of a national level legal system of brownfield reuse, establish a flexible brownfield cleanup standards and assessment and monitoring system, Multisectoral cooperation mechanisms and enhance advocacy work , Strengthen technology research of brownfield reuse. Related Articles | Metrics

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The relationship between size distribution and spatial distribution of urban systems 2015, 24(03): 75-82.  Abstract ( )   PDF (661KB) ( )   The paper is adopting rank-size rule and nearest neighbor analysis to analyze the evolution of size distribution and spatial distribution of the top 300 cities in China. Then the correlation between size distribution and spatial distribution was studied by using Granger causality test. The results show that: The urban district non-agricultural population’s size distribution of the top 300 cities is in line with rank-size rule. From the point of view trends over the past 27 years, the size distribution index Q showed a three stage change characteristics of decline-rise-fluctuation. It’s indicating that the driving forces of population aggregation and diffuseness are intertwined. R statistical values of the spatial distribution although had large fluctuations but less than 1, and it showed a significant concentration distribution patterns. Natural and socio-economic conditions of the region and the national development strategy had a profound impact on the development and spatial distribution of urban system. It had a great consistency between the size distribution index Q and spatial distribution index R of China's top 300 cities in the past 27 years. There existed a causal relationship between size distributions and spatial distribution in Chinese urban systems can be seen from the Granger causality test results. The existence of widespread urban system spatial correlation means that cities in planning development process need to not only focus on their own initiative as subjective, but also consider the impact of other neighboring cities. Make full use of space link to strengthen their development and let the urban systems gradually form a complementary industrial structure and ordered functions aggregates, to enhance their overall competitiveness. Related Articles | Metrics

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Research progress and practice experience of urban agglomeration integration in abroad 2015, 24(03): 83-90.  Abstract ( )   PDF (680KB) ( )   With the high-speed development of the urban agglomeration, its integration has become one of the main trends of regional development. This article summarizes the progress of the theoretical research and practice exploration of urban agglomeration integration. On the theoretical level, the integration concept gradually shift from traditional spatial integration to space integration and functional integration, involving space, economy, society, culture, environment, information, institution, etc, and emphasize the balance, coordination and sustainable development of the joint; On the practical level, based on the regional resources superiority and characteristic, fully explore the local potential and cultivate innovation ability, pay attention to the overall urban planning layout and coordinating mechanism construction, find the integration mode and the institutional guarantee of urban agglomeration, accumulate beneficial experiences. Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Spatial Interaction and Co-building of Linkage Mechanism among Core Cities in “Four-city Area in Middle China” 2015, 24(03): 91-99.  Abstract ( )   PDF (771KB) ( )   With the acceleration of industrialization, urbanization and global integration, the connection between cities is becoming increasing intimate, which plays an important role in regional economic growth. “Four-city Area in Middle China” enjoys a nature areal association, together with favorable economic situation, policy guarantee, convenient traffic network and solid foundation of linkage co-building. Taking core cities in “Four-city Area in Middle China” as study objects, the author made a judgment of competitive industries in each city by using location quotient, figured out the extroversion degree through some indexes, such as urban flows, and then measured the traffic development situation according to comprehensive traffic accessibility. Several conclusions can be drew from the paper: firstly, industry development in four cities have their characters respectively but an industry convergence still exists; secondly, Changsha holds the highest extroversion degree; thirdly, Wuhan is equipped with the best traffic accessibility, with Hefei and Nanchang stand at the end of “Four-city Area in Middle China”, although both of them have an outward-looking economic system and comprehensive transportation system. Based on these, the author suggested that strengthen the spatial connection and promote city construction of “Four-city Area in Middle China” could be a practical support for implementing the rising strategy of Central China. Related Articles | Metrics

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Causal Analysis of Economic Disparity in Yangtze River Basin 2015, 24(03): 100-109.  Abstract ( )   PDF (797KB) ( )   Abstract:With the aid of ArcGIS and GeoDA, the study measured by the index of PCGDP with the methods of Statistic analysis and ESDA. Spatial-temporal pattern and spatial interaction types of county-level economic disparities in Yangtze river Basin during 2001-2011 are preliminarily explored from three aspects:time series, spatial series and impact factors.The results showed:(1)the absolute difference within the Yangtze river basin in volatility to expand, the relative difference is narrowed;the economic development of velocity difference between sub-basins is obvious;Economic differences between the sub-basins presents a decrease trend with fluctuation,regional balanced development began to emerge.(2)the difference of economic development between the sub-basins in the space issignificant,the regional economic development level on the three major economic zones have a significantly differences;The spatial pattern of the economic hotspot area is relative stability in Yangtze river Basin,scope of core area shaped as a circular structures is spreading from east to west in Yangtze river Basin,scope of edge area shaped as a ring structures is decrease.(3)the regional development strategy is the most important factor of economic growth in Yangtze river basin,and give the most influence to the regional difference. Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis on Spatial Evolution of New Urbanization Pattern in Jilin Province 2015, 24(03): 110-117.  Abstract ( )   PDF (789KB) ( )   Taking the Jilin province as a study case, new urbanization level as the measuring indicator, this article used the methods of spatial autocorrelation index, average growth index and variogram to study the spatial evolution of new urbanization pattern at the level of county in1995, 2003 and 2012. Conclusions are drawn as follows: The discrete feature of new urbanization development is significant, and the hotspot is stable relatively. The hotspots of new urbanization development mainly centralize in the Changchun-Jilin area, and the coldspots cluster in the western and eastern region of Jilin province; The new urbanization growth shows a strong trend of spatial autocorrelation, and the hotspot areas switch slowly. The high values gather in the western of Jilin Province with clump during the period of 1995-2003, and there are “two cores” from 2003 to 2012; The continuity and self-organization of new urbanization pattern tends to be enhancing, whereas the random components of the spatial disparity pattern keeps decreasing over time, and the polar phenomenon which taking Changchun-Jilin area as center is obvious, the radiation function of big cities is weakening. Finally, the three driving forces of new urbanization framework evolvement in Jilin Province have been drawn: internal requirement of new urbanization, regional strategic policy and economic and industrial foundation. Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the constitute of Core Competitiveness for International Advanced FTA and Implications 2015, 24(03): 126-133.  Abstract ( )   PDF (756KB) ( )   The development of FTA is an important strategy measure for the new round of national reform. Firstly, it has analyzed the characteristics and tendency on the development of international advanced FTA. Secondly it constructed a diamond model and one indicator system about the core competitiveness of advanced FTA, and then, it has analyzed the core elements of competitiveness for advanced FTA, with an example of HK free port, which are building developed aviation network to connect with the global markets and economic hinterland, establishing regional data centers of global economic information with modern information technology, building accessibility investment environment based on the market economy, reducing the capital operating costs and assets hedge risk with simple and low tax rates, setting up a comprehensive service system to support major economic function based on professional services, founding a multidimensional international functional channels with advantage economic elements. Finally, it has analyzed the main gaps and challenges for Shanghai FTZ development, as a reference of international advanced FTA, and proposed some suggestions on priority development path. Related Articles | Metrics

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Characteristics of spatial structure variations of China's rural collective enterprises over the past 20 years 2015, 24(03): 134-142.  Abstract ( )   PDF (811KB) ( )   After the late 1980s when property rights reform has widely occurred in rural industrial enterprises, by using industrial enterprises data in 1988-2011 and analyzing the spatial-temporal characteristics of the number and gross output proportion of rural collective enterprises, we conclude: The number and gross output proportion change of rural industrial collective enterprises corresponds with the policy guidance that was released in each phase to improve enterprises competitiveness; Over the past 20 years, the collective proportion has been closing for eastern, central and western region; Most eastern provinces have the highest proportion, and the high proportion and high efficiency provinces are almost on the eastern coast and their ranking has a inertial feature Related Articles | Metrics

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An Analysis for Tourism Market Potential of Chinese Prefecture-level Cities 2015, 24(03): 160-166.  Abstract ( )   PDF (790KB) ( )   In this paper, the tourism market area of Chinese prefecture-level cities is calculated on tourism gravity model, combined with GIS. At the same time, this paper analyzes tourism market potential of Chinese prefecture-level cities based on the above model to provide a theoretical basis for the development of regional tourism. Firstly, the first market area, the second market area and the third market area obviously show distance decay. And the prefecture-level cities that the market domain can cover the whole country are not much, accounting for less than 1/5, only 68. The tourism market potential in the most parts of our country is small. In addition, the market area of Chinese prefecture-level cities is affected by geographical location, natural environment and regional development policies. Secondly, 346 Chinese prefecture-level cities can be divided into four kinds of cities by clustering according to the market area. There are mainly differences among tourism resources, traffic location and economy, which affects the tourism market potential. Thirdly, in all cities of every province, there are 19 provinces that the market area of the capitals is the largest. In other 8 provinces, the market area of capitals is not the largest. Therefore, measures can be taken as soon as possible. If the tourism resources have been all developed, tourism services and ecological environment should be strengthen. However, while tourism resources are still to be developed, the way of own unique development should be found to expand its tourism market potential. Convenient transportation will improve the status quo, meanwhile building airports and high-speed rail is now feasible solution. Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the optimization of pro-poor tourism industrial chain in China 2015, 24(03): 167-175.  Abstract ( )   PDF (824KB) ( )   Starting from the concept of industrial chain and combining with the characteristics of pro-poor tourism, the paper gives the definition of pro-poor tourism industrial chain and analyzes its development and evolution. Based on the basis of the existing problems, it also analyzes the connotation and significance of optimization, and puts forward many paths to optimize the pro-poor tourism industrial chain in China, such as cultivating the core poverty tourism enterprises, strengthening the integration of industrial chain, accelerating the localization industry chain, strengthening industry convergence and regional cooperation. Related Articles | Metrics