Abstract: The rapid development of large cities at home and abroad in a large extent depends on the adequate supply of labor, and it is crucial for these cities to develop suitable population development strategies and policies. This paper presents a method used to making scenario simulation of population growth, which is based on Cohort component projection model and innovatively takes working-age population as a crucial variable, and then, to estimate the development trend of resident population in Shanghai. Results show that the population of migrant working-age will play an important role in Shanghai’s future development; therefore, immigration population of Shanghai should be given more attention and affirmation. This method is not only applicable for megacities which share characteristics with Shanghai in population age structure and growth trends, but also has suggestive meanings for smaller cities.

摘要： 国内外大城市的快速发展很大程度上依赖于劳动力的充分供给，制定合适的人口发展战略及政策是至关重要的。本文基于队列要素法，以劳动年龄人口规模作为重要变量对上海市人口规模进行情景模拟，依据结果对上海市未来常住人口发展趋势进行判断。结果显示，外来劳动年龄人口对上海市未来发展有重要支撑作用，上海应该给予外来迁入人口更多的关注和肯定，而不是盲目地限制；同时，判定上海市2040年常住人口规模将增长到3000万~3870万之间。本方法可以广泛应用于与上海具有相似人口年龄结构和人口规模变化趋势的大型城市和特大型城市，对中小型城市的人口规模模拟和政策制定也具有一定的参考意义。