Abstract:

China is a major exporter of global textile industry. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to examine the dual margin of the evolution of China's textile export expansion. Based on Chinese Customs Trade Statistics (CCTS) dataset from 2000 to 2016, this study constructs a Probit model to analyze how information spillover and orders affect the dynamics of China's textile export expansion, and which of them plays a more important role in the growth of China's textile export. Empirical results show that, in local dimension, information spillover effects brought by industrial agglomeration and industrial transfer have positive impacts on the evolution of China's textile export expansion. However, in destination dimension, the effect of information spillover on the dual marginal evolution of China's textile export is not significant, the export trade growth of China's textile industry is actually dominated by the orders. This paper also verifies that there exists heterogeneity in the role of order-driven export in countries with different income levels, while order-driven export plays a leading role in middle- and high-income countries, but the impact on low-income countries is limited. Furthermore, based on different trade geography features of different types of textile products, orders and information spillover have varied influences on the expansion of destination of different products.

Key words: order-driven export, information spillover, trade expansion, global-local interactions, textile industry

摘要：

中国是世界纺织业出口贸易大国，检视中国纺织业出口贸易扩张的二元边际具有重要的现实意义。基于2000—2016年省份-目的国尺度的纺织业出口贸易数据，使用Probit模型分析订单出口和信息溢出对我国纺织业出口贸易网络时空演化特征的影响，并探讨二者在促进我国纺织业出口增长过程中的相对重要性。实证结果显示，在出口地维度，产业集聚和产业转移带来的信息溢出效应会对我国纺织业出口贸易扩张产生显著影响，而在目的国维度，信息溢出对我国纺织业出口二元边际演化的作用并不显著，我国纺织业出口贸易增长实际由订单主导，且订单对不同收入水平国家的作用强度存在异质性，订单出口在我国向中高收入国家的纺织业出口中起主导作用，对低收入国家的影响则有限。进一步地，基于不同类型纺织品差异化的贸易地理格局，影响不同纺织品目的国扩张的因素亦不同。

关键词: 订单出口, 信息溢出, 贸易扩张, 全球-地方互动, 纺织业