Abstract:

Critical nonferrous metals are of strategic importance to the development of today's manufacturing industry, especially under sustainable circumstances. To explore the trade patterns of the critical nonferrous metal resource industry chain and analyze its competitive advantages at different stages, this paper takes cobalt as an example, constructs the directional weighted network of the trade of typical products at each stage of the global cobalt industry chain from 2002 to 2020 based on the trade data of cobalt, cobalt oxide, electrolytic cobalt and cobalt acid lithium, uses trade and market concentration index to analyze the evolution pattern of overall global cobalt products trade, analyzes the cobalt competitive situation of China among typical trading parties. The results show: (1) Developed countries or regions attach more importance to the downstream of the cobalt industry chain. (2) The overall trade volume of cobalt has been gradually increasing, cobalt oxide and lithium cobalt oxide still occupied the majority share of trade among countries. (3) China is more dependent on cobalt ore and cobalt oxide from the Democratic Republic of Congo, and may face a shortage of cobalt and cobalt oxide; the competitiveness of China's cobalt industry is second only to the United States. (4) The United States, Germany, and other countries pay more attention to the ability of betweenness centrality and the distribution of export structure. Accordingly, it is proposed to pay attention to the diversification of the supply side, build a global cobalt product trade risk assessment system, accelerate the upstream and downstream extension of the industry chain and take the lead in relieving the investment pressure of enterprises, to adapt to the internal and external environment evolution, to enhance the control of the critical nonferrous metals industry chain, both in the international and domestic market.

Key words: critical nonferrous metals, cobalt industry chain, trade patterns, international trade network, industrial concentration

摘要：

关键有色金属作为战略性新兴产业发展的基础资源，可为各国抢占全球经济制高点、提升创新能力提供竞争砝码。为了探究关键有色金属资源产业链贸易格局，明确其在不同阶段的竞争优势，本文以钴为例，根据UNComtrade数据库中钴矿、钴氧化物、电解钴和钴酸锂的贸易数据，构建2002—2020年全球钴产业链各阶段典型产品贸易有向加权网络；使用贸易总额和市场集中度指数，分析全球钴产品贸易总体格局的演化趋势；从典型国家的竞争地位、贸易过程中的国家影响力、贸易渠道结构特征三维度分析中国与其他典型国家在全球钴产业链上的竞争力。结果发现：（1）发达国家（地区）更重视钴产业链下游产品；（2）钴整体贸易有逐渐回暖趋势，钴氧化物和钴酸锂依然是各国贸易的重点；（3）中国较依赖从刚果（金）进口钴矿和钴氧化物，可能面临钴矿和钴氧化物短缺风险，且中国钴产业竞争力仅次于美国；（4）美国、德国等国更重视贸易中介控制能力和出口结构分布。在此基础上，提出应重视供应端的多元化、构建全球钴产品贸易风险评估体系、加快产业链上下游延伸以及政府牵头缓解企业投资压力等建议，以适应内外部环境演变，提高中国在国际和国内市场上对关键有色金属产业链的掌控力。

关键词: 关键有色金属, 钴产业链, 贸易格局, 国际贸易网络, 产业集中度