Abstract:

In recent years, extreme weather and climate events have occurred frequently around the world. The rise in sea levels has made the safety and resilience situation in coastal areas more severe. Climate change has brought new challenges to disaster prevention planning, which is crucial to effectively reflect on the shortcomings of past planning practices and continue to learn at the forefront of the field to make planning more agile. Delta Programme proposes a monitoring-assessment-adjustment system. Under the legal and financial guarantees, based on administrative agreements, using a dual-line monitoring approach, through the theory of loop-learning, it comprehensively evaluates the planning measures, planning goals, planning working methods, and the assumptions based on the planning. It also regularly iterates the monitoring and evaluation system, providing a strong reference for the adjustment of the planning every year, thereby effectively improving the safety and resilience of the Dutch Delta. The experience of the system provides valuable reference and inspiration for the construction of a resilience planning monitoring and evaluation system.

Key words: Delta Programme, monitoring-assessment-adjustment system, Netherlands, external signal, loop learning

摘要：

近年来，全球的极端气候事件较为频繁，海平面的上升令沿海地区安全韧性形势愈加严峻，对我国防灾规划提出了新挑战。因此，提前规划能够提升应变能力、反思既往实践的不足、持续追踪领域前沿动态，对提升规划机动性具有重要意义。本研究对荷兰三角洲安全韧性的监测评估体系发展过程、模式内容及驱动机制进行深入剖析：荷兰三角洲规划创新性地提出了一种监测评估体系，在法律和财务的保障及行政协议的约束下，基于三循环学习理念，通过双线监测机制，全方位地对规划措施、规划目标、规划方法和假设前提进行深度评估，并定期对监测评估体系进行再评估，实现自我迭代，为每年三角洲规划的调整提供了强有力的参考依据，从而有效提升了三角洲的安全韧性，体现出该体系的全面性、动态性与协同性的特征。对此，从监测评估系统的建立、间接影响因子的识别、跨界治理路径的构建，以及定期目标价值的校验评估4个方面对我国的发展提出经验启示。

关键词: 三角洲规划, 监测评估体系, 荷兰, 外部因素, 循环学习