Abstract:

The resilience ability of the tourism economic system to cope with uncertainty shocks is of great significance in realising the high-quality and stable development of tourism. The paper constructs a tourism economic resilience evaluation system from three dimensions of resistance maintenance, adaptation, recovery and renewal transformation, measures the tourism economic resilience of 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2021, and analyses the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and obstacle factors of tourism economic resilience of Shandong Province under different shocks. The results show that:①Although the level of tourism economic resilience in Shandong Province shows an increasing trend, the ability to cope with uncertain shocks is still weak, and the spatial pattern of tourism economic resilience in the "east high and west low" is relatively stable;②The main obstacle factors affecting resistance maintenance dimension are the number of museums, star hotels, and performing arts venues, the obstacle factors affecting the adaptation recovery dimension are the number of tourism employees, the number of public toilets per 10,000 people, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents, and the main obstacle factors affecting renewal transformation dimension are the number of general higher education institutions, the number of patents;③Under different shock scenarios, the obstacle factors affecting the resilience of the tourism economy in Shandong Province have changed, especially in the renewal transformation dimension, where governmental dynamism plays a significant role in the rapid recovery of the tourism economy and the realisation of high-quality transformation and development of the tourism economy.Key words: tourism economic resilience; spatio-temporal patterns; shock situations; obstacle factors; Shandong Province

摘要：

提高旅游经济系统应对不确定冲击的韧性能力，对实现旅游业高质量稳定发展具有重要意义。论文从抵抗维持、适应恢复和更新转变3个维度构建旅游经济韧性评价体系，测度了山东省16地级市2010—2021年旅游经济韧性，并探究了不同冲击情境下山东省旅游经济韧性时空动态演变及障碍因子，结果表明：①山东省旅游经济韧性水平虽然呈现上升趋势，但应对不确定冲击的能力仍较弱，且“东高西低”的旅游经济韧性空间格局较为稳定。②影响抵抗维持性的主要障碍因子是博物馆、星级酒店及艺术表演场所数量；影响适应恢复性的障碍因子是旅游从业人数、每万人拥有公厕数和城镇居民人均可支配收入；影响更新转变性的主要障碍因子是普通高等学校数量和专利数量。③在不同冲击情境下，影响山东省旅游经济韧性的障碍因子发生了改变，尤其是在更新转变维度，政府能动性对快速恢复旅游经济、实现旅游经济高质量转型发展的作用显著。

关键词: 旅游经济韧性, 时空格局, 冲击情境, 障碍因子, 山东省