Abstract:

The coordination between steady industrial growth and the carbon peaking target constitutes a critical pathway to optimize economic structure and advance green and low-carbon transition. Using a system dynamics model, this paper designs alternative policy scenario combinations to simulate the impacts of economic development, energy mix, and industrial proportion on carbon peaking, and identifies the optimal pathway for reconciling steady industrial growth with carbon peaking in the YREB. Three findings emerge. First, both an overly rapid and an overly slow decline in the industrial share hinder the joint objective. Second, under the baseline and high-growth scenarios, the YREB is unlikely to peak emissions by 2030, whereas an energy-optimization scenario delivers a peak by 2025. Third, conditional on the energy-optimization path, an industrial share in the range of 26.6~29.1 percent serves as an effective fulcrum for reconciling carbon peaking with stable industrial expansion. Finally, based on their own resource endowments, provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt can pursue differentiated carbon peaking targets, further boost the development of high-tech and high-value-added industries, effectively raise industrial production efficiency, lower carbon emissions, and achieve coordination between industrial development and carbon peaking.

Key words: steady industrial growth, carbon peaking, industrial proportion, system dynamics

摘要：

工业平稳增长与碳达峰目标的协同发展，是实现经济结构优化和绿色低碳转型的关键路径。本文基于系统动力学模型，设计不同政策情景组合方案来模拟预测经济发展、能源结构和工业占比等对碳达峰的影响，揭示长江经济带工业稳增长与碳达峰协同发展的最优路径。研究表明：①工业占比下降过快或过慢均不利于长江经济带实现工业稳增长和碳达峰的协同发展。②在基准情景和经济高速发展情景下，长江经济带难以实现2030年碳达峰目标，只有在能源优化情景下才能于2025年实现碳达峰目标。③长江经济带应以能源优化情景为参考实现碳达峰目标，并将工业占比保持在26.6%~29.1%之间，以此为支点，积极推进碳达峰和工业稳增长协同发展。④长江经济带各省市可基于自身资源禀赋，实现差异化碳达峰目标，进一步促进高技术、高附加值产业的发展，从而有效提高工业生产效率、降低碳排放水平，最终实现工业增长与碳达峰协同发展。

关键词: 工业稳增长, 碳达峰, 工业占比, 系统动力学