Abstract:

In order to protect region security around China and promote "the Belt and Road" initiative, it is of high importance to fully understand food security and land resources carrying capacity (LCC) in Afghanistan. From the perspective of dietary nutrition demand, we studied the LCC change in Afghanistan in recent 60 years, with our established evaluation models. We also discussed the optimization path in future, considering different production and consumption scenarios. We concluded that local land resources have been unable to meet the total demands for food in Afghanistan, due to larger population and higher dietary nutrition demands; thus, local land carrying pressure has changed from the basic balance stage (1961-1978) and the tightening stage (1979-1998) to the prominent stage of human land contradiction (1999-2019). Considering three dietary nutrient equivalents of calories, protein and fat, all their land carrying capacity is overloaded in Afghanistan, with the greatest pressure from fat demands. In order to meet local food consumption growth and land sustainable development, local authorities should implement the "drug to food" policy and also improve land productivity, while suitable food dietary is also important for health and land management. Besides, we also discussed main drivers on LCC in Afghanistan, which aim to further alleviate local food security and better human-land relationship.

Key words: land resources carrying capacity, Afghanistan, dietary nutrition, food security, scenario analysis

摘要：

为了我国周边安全和“一带一路”倡议的顺利推进，应充分认识阿富汗地区的粮食安全问题及土地承载力演变情况。本研究从膳食营养需求的角度出发，通过构建土地资源承载力评价模型，研究了近六十年来阿富汗地区土地资源承载力变化情况，并根据未来不同情景，探讨了阿富汗地区土地资源承载力的优化路径。结果表明：随着膳食营养需求和人口的增加，阿富汗地区土地资源已无法满足本国居民的消费需求，土地资源承载压力逐渐增加，已经由基本平衡阶段（1961—1978）和态势趋紧阶段（1979—1998），演变为人地矛盾突出阶段（1999—2019）。从三种膳食营养当量（热量、蛋白质和脂肪）来看，阿富汗地区土地资源均处于超载状态，其中基于脂肪需求的土地资源承载压力最大。为了满足当地食物消费需求增长和土地资源的可持续发展，阿富汗当局一方面应大力推行“毒改粮”政策并提高土地生产力，另一方面也应当积极引导合适健康饮食。此外，本文还探讨了影响阿富汗土地资源承载力的主要因素，以期为进一步缓解与改善阿富汗地区粮食安全问题及其人地关系提供参考。

关键词: 土地资源承载力, 阿富汗, 膳食营养, 粮食安全, 情景分析