Abstract:

The study of carbon budget and carbon compensation zoning is of great significance in formulating strategies to adapt to the low-carbon development of each region, promoting synergistic management of regional ecological environment, and realizing high-quality development. This paper takes 56 municipal units in the Yellow River Basin as the study area, and by constructing a conceptual structure of carbon income and expenditure as well as carbon compensation zoning of the cities in the basin, it studies the spatio-temporal differentiation law of carbon income and expenditure as well as carbon compensation zoning of the urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin by using methods such as the centralization index and the location-constrained multivariate spatial clustering, and then it provides constructive theoretical solutions for the low-carbon development strategy in the process of urbanization. The study shows that: (1) the cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020 are characterized by obvious geographical differentiation of carbon expenditure and revenue, specifically, the carbon expenditure and revenue centralization index of the study area fluctuates up and down around the warning line of 0.4, and the overall curve shows an obvious fluctuating upward trend. (2) The spatial and temporal variation of carbon income and expenditure among cities in the Yellow River Basin is remarkable, and the data show that carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin show a structure of "low in the west and high in the east and central parts of the country", with the high-value centres in Gansu, Shaanxi and Shandong provinces in 2000, and then the number of high-value areas of carbon emissions has increased year by year, while at the same time, the absorptive capacity of carbon sinks in each city is roughly equal. (3) Based on the framework of carbon offset zoning, the study area is divided into five types of carbon offset spatial optimization zones, and suggestions are made for green and low-carbon development planning in different types of zones. (4) In the future, the study will refine the spatial scale of the study area, explore the balance of carbon budget and carbon compensation of smaller units, and strive to explore the optimization of the green and low-carbon development mode of small areas, so that the energy conservation and emission reduction and green development of small areas can lead the cities in the region to achieve the dual-carbon goal.

Key words: carbon budget, carbon offset zoning, centralization index, spatial clustering, Yellow River Basin

摘要：

碳收支和碳补偿分区的研究，对于制定适应各区域低碳发展策略，推动区域生态环境协同治理，实现高质量发展具有重要意义。本文以黄河流域56个市级单元为研究区域，通过构建该流域内城市的碳收支以及碳补偿分区的概念性架构，利用集中化指数、位置约束的多元空间聚类等方法研究黄河流域城市群碳收支的时空分异规律以及碳补偿分区，进而为城市化进程中低碳发展战略提供建设性理论方案。研究显示：（1）2000—2020年黄河流域各城市碳收支地域分异特征明显，具体来说，研究区域碳收支集中化指数围绕警戒线0.4上下浮动，且整体曲线呈明显的波动上升趋势。（2）黄河流域各城市碳收支时空差异化特征显著，数据显示，黄河流域碳排放呈现“西部低、中东部高”的结构，2000年高值中心集中在甘肃、陕西、山东三省，之后碳排放高值区逐年增多，与此同时，各城市碳汇吸收能力大致相等。（3）根据碳补偿分区框架，将研究区划分为5类碳补偿空间优化区，并为不同类型区的绿色低碳发展规划提出建议。（4）未来研究将进一步细化研究区空间尺度，探讨更小单元的碳收支与碳补偿平衡，致力于探求优化小区域的绿色低碳发展模式，以小区域的节能减排、绿色发展带动区域内城市整体实现双碳目标。

关键词: 碳收支, 碳补偿分区, 集中化指数, 空间聚类, 黄河流域