Abstract:

Faced with the impact of IPEF's regulation, containment and decoupling, will China's push to jointly build a "Digital Silk Road" serve as a counterbalance? The thesis, using dynamic GTAP and CGE models, firstly simulates the impact results achieved by IPEF, and finds that the negative impact on China's overall development is significant, but it may also hurt itself to induce negative-sum game with China. Then, the thesis simulates the effect of China's co-construction policies in terms of special capital investment, professional personnel training, logistics efficiency improvement and technical barrier reduction, and finds that the implementation of co-construction policies, whether single, superimposed or heterogeneous, can play a hedging role with different strengths and effects on the whole. These co-construction measures help China's economic capital,living welfare, foreign trade an industrial production capacity "turn for the better", and the superposition of co-construction policies and heterogeneous implementation will further enhance the hedging effect. Meanwhile, the externalities induced by the "Digital Silk Road" co-construction policy will also produce some shackles on the development of IPEF, but the co-construction will benefit the countries along the line as a whole, and will achieve win-win development with China. China should use the "Digital Silk Road" to achieve better hedging, not only for the IPEF's "rules-led", "decoupling and chain breaking" targeted policies, but also pay attention to the key breakthrough of the co-construction policy, multiple measures and heterogeneous differentiated implementation.

Key words: Digital Silk Road, Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, global trade analysis project, Computable General Equilibrium

摘要：

面对IPEF的规制、围堵、脱钩等外部冲击，中国推动“数字丝路”共建能否起到有效的对冲作用？采用动态GTAP和CGE模型，首先模拟得到IPEF达成后的冲击结果，发现其对中国整体发展的负向冲击较为显著，但该机制也可能伤及自身，诱发与中国的负和博弈。接着本文对中国在专项资本投入、专业人才培养、物流效率提升、技术性壁垒削减方面推动共建的政策效果进行模拟，发现无论是单项的、叠加的还是异质性的共建政策实施，整体上均能起到力度有别、效果不一的对冲作用，助力中国实现经济资本、生活福利、对外贸易、行业产能的发展，且共建政策的叠加和异质实施能够进一步增强对冲效果。同时，“数字丝路”共建政策诱发的外部性也会对IPEF发展产生一些制约，但该共建模式可让共建国家整体福利显著获益，最终实现各国与中国的共赢发展。中国要借助“数字丝路”共建实现更好的对冲，既要针对IPEF的“规则主导”“脱钩断链”进行施策，也要注意共建政策的重点突破、多措并举和异质错位推行。

关键词: 数字丝路, 印太经济框架（IPEF）, 全球贸易分析项目, 可计算一般均衡