Research on the measurement of the development level of the Digital Silk Road and its convergence

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.06.20240115

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the morphological attributes of the development of the Digital Silk Road, an indicator evaluation system is constructed to examine the development level of the Digital Silk Road from 2018 to 2022. A nonlinear time-varying factor model is used to test the club convergence phenomenon of the development level of the Digital Silk Road, and its formation mechanism is analyzed. The results show that: ① The overall development level of the Digital Silk Road is steadily increasing, but the spatial development is uneven.②There is no overall convergence trend in the development of the Digital Silk Road, but there are 3 potential convergence clubs among the 28 sample countries; Convergence Club I is mainly composed of countries connected by the China Central Asia West Asia Economic Corridor and the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, with the highest level of digital economic development. Convergence Club II is mainly composed of countries connected by the China Indochina Economic Corridor, with a high level of digital economic development. Convergence Club III is mainly composed of countries connected by the New Eurasian Continental Bridge Economic Corridor, with a relatively low level of digital economic development. Both the UK and Bangladesh have not joined any convergence clubs.③The initial conditions and regional policies are important reasons for forming a convergence club for the development level of the Digital Silk Road. However, geographical location only has a significant impact on the formation of convergence clubs for mobile phone subscriptions, and does not have a significant impact on the formation of convergence clubs for higher education enrollment rates. The results show that the construction of the Digital Silk Road will closely link countries at different levels of convergence clubs, promote the coordinated development of the digital economy of countries under joint construction, and is becoming an important engine for high-quality development of the Belt and Road in the digital economy era.

Key words: the Digital Silk Road, development level, convergence club, nonlinear time-varying factor model, six major economic corridors

摘要：

以“数字丝绸之路”发展的形态属性为基础，构建指标评价体系，定量考察2018—2022年“数字丝绸之路”的发展水平，采用非线性时变因子模型检验“数字丝绸之路”发展水平的俱乐部收敛现象，并对其形成机制进行探析。结果表明：①考察期内“数字丝绸之路”发展水平呈稳步上升的态势，但空间发展不均衡。②“数字丝绸之路”发展不存在整体收敛的趋势，28个样本国家中存在3个潜在收敛俱乐部：收敛俱乐部I主要由中国-中亚-西亚经济走廊和中巴经济走廊连接的国家构成，数字经济发展水平最高；收敛俱乐部II主要由中国-中南半岛经济走廊连接的国家构成，数字经济发展水平较高；收敛俱乐部III主要由新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊连接的国家构成，数字经济发展水平较低。英国和孟加拉国未进入任何收敛俱乐部。③初始条件和区域政策是形成“数字丝绸之路”发展水平收敛俱乐部的重要原因。地理位置仅对移动电话订阅量的收敛俱乐部的形成影响显著，对高等教育入学率的收敛俱乐部的形成影响不显著。研究结果显示，“数字丝绸之路”将处于不同水平收敛俱乐部的国家紧密连接在一起，促进了共建国家数字经济协同发展，成为数字经济时代“一带一路”高质量发展的重要引擎。

关键词: 数字丝绸之路, 发展水平, 俱乐部收敛, 非线性时变因子模型, 六大经济走廊

Yuwen ZHENG, Weixian XUE. Research on the measurement of the development level of the Digital Silk Road and its convergence[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(6): 42-55.

郑玉雯, 薛伟贤. “数字丝绸之路”发展水平测度及其收敛性研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(6): 42-55.

Figures/Tables 7

Tab.1 Evaluation system of development level indicators for the Digital Silk Road

一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	属性
数字技术	科研产出	每百万人ICT有关专利申请数量	正向
	科研产出	数学和计算机发表论文数量	正向
	人力资本	高等教育入学率	正向
	人力资本	公共教育支出占政府支出的比例	正向
	创新水平	ICT产品出口占货物总出口百分比	正向
	创新水平	PCT专利申请受理量	正向
数字基础设施	普惠性	每百人固定宽带接入	正向
		每百人移动宽带接入	正向
		每百人移动电话订阅量	正向
	便捷性	国际网络宽带速度	正向
		移动流量资费	负向
		移动设备成本	负向
	安全性	网络安全发展指数	正向
数字市场	需求侧	互联网用户规模	正向
	需求侧	社交媒体使用程度	正向
	供给侧	数字经济企业规模	正向
	供给侧	B2B交易中的数字应用	正向
	国际市场	产品以数字形式出口规模	正向
数字治理	数字政府	电子参与指数	正向
	经济与社会环境	营商环境指数	正向
	经济与社会环境	知识产权保护程度	正向
	政治与法律环境	数字相关的法律建设	正向
		ICT监管指数	正向
		政府对先进技术的采购	正向

Tab.2 Selection of sample countries

样本国家	“一带一路”经济走廊
立陶宛、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、英国、爱尔兰、法国、荷兰、比利时	新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊
蒙古国、俄罗斯	中蒙俄经济走廊
哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、土耳其、塞浦路斯	中国-中亚-西亚经济走廊
斯里兰卡、尼泊尔、不丹	中国-中南半岛经济走廊
巴基斯坦	中巴经济走廊
孟加拉国、印度	孟中印缅经济走廊

Tab.3 The measurement results of the development level index of the Digital Silk Road

走廊	国家	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	均值	走廊	国家	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	均值
新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊	立陶宛	0.595	0.617	0.633	0.650	0.661	0.631	中蒙俄经济走廊	蒙古国	0.594	0.614	0.622	0.641	0.645	0.623
	爱沙尼亚	0.556	0.570	0.578	0.597	0.608	0.582	中蒙俄经济走廊	俄罗斯	0.558	0.573	0.613	0.600	0.608	0.590
	拉脱维亚	0.564	0.570	0.597	0.605	0.609	0.589	中国-中亚-西亚经济走廊	哈萨克斯坦	0.589	0.614	0.630	0.661	0.682	0.635
	波兰	0.576	0.591	0.609	0.630	0.645	0.610		吉尔吉斯斯坦	0.561	0.581	0.591	0.611	0.625	0.594
	捷克	0.725	0.752	0.795	0.859	0.803	0.807		土耳其	0.630	0.652	0.691	0.708	0.733	0.683
	斯洛伐克	0.555	0.570	0.592	0.605	0.619	0.588		塞浦路斯	0.586	0.605	0.630	0.663	0.686	0.634
	匈牙利	0.542	0.558	0.564	0.572	0.587	0.565	中国-中南半岛经济走廊	斯里兰卡	0.569	0.583	0.597	0.622	0.638	0.602
	克罗地亚	0.529	0.903	0.859	0.631	0.638	0.712		尼泊尔	0.608	0.638	0.650	0.689	0.725	0.662
	罗马尼亚	0.528	0.619	0.605	0.627	0.562	0.588		不丹	0.548	0.562	0.573	0.600	0.613	0.579
	保加利亚	0.555	0.587	0.572	0.542	0.652	0.582	中巴经济走廊	巴基斯坦	0.650	0.675	0.702	0.743	0.773	0.723
	英国	0.739	0.770	0.793	0.864	0.871	0.807	孟中印缅经济走廊	孟加拉国	0.353	0.391	0.404	0.469	0.501	0.441
	爱尔兰	0.517	0.686	0.661	0.541	0.600	0.601	孟中印缅经济走廊	印度	0.653	0.686	0.713	0.757	0.774	0.733
	法国	0.531	0.530	0.570	0.607	0.591	0.566	中国		0.729	0.760	0.788	0.849	0.859	0.814
	荷兰	0.552	0.537	0.595	0.569	0.613	0.573	发展水平指数均值		0.549	0.620	0.637	0.646	0.666	0.632
	比利时	0.563	0.560	0.602	0.571	0.631	0.585	发展水平指数均值

Fig.1 Development level of digital economy in the six major economic corridors from 2018 to 2022

Tab.4 Convergence test results of the development level of the Digital Silk Road

变量	整体收敛	收敛俱乐部（I）	收敛俱乐部（II）	收敛俱乐部（III）
常数项（ $a$ ）	0.89（0.05）	-5.77（7.13）	-2.87（0.44）	-1.74（0.25）
系数（ $b$ ）	-1.10（0.02）	0.56（2.30）	0.44（0.17）	0.27（0.11）
$t$ 统计值	-65.32	0.17	2.13	2.17

Tab.4 Convergence test results of the development level of the Digital Silk Road

变量	整体收敛	收敛俱乐部（I）	收敛俱乐部（II）	收敛俱乐部（III）
常数项（ $a$ ）	0.89（0.05）	-5.77（7.13）	-2.87（0.44）	-1.74（0.25）
系数（ $b$ ）	-1.10（0.02）	0.56（2.30）	0.44（0.17）	0.27（0.11）
$t$ 统计值	-65.32	0.17	2.13	2.17

Tab.5 Convergence Club of the Digital Silk Road

收敛俱乐部名称	样本国家
收敛俱乐部I	中国、蒙古国、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、土耳其、塞浦路斯、印度、巴基斯坦、斯里兰卡、尼泊尔、不丹
收敛俱乐部II	俄罗斯、立陶宛、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利
收敛俱乐部III	克罗地亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、爱尔兰、法国、荷兰、比利时
未进入收敛俱乐部	英国、孟加拉国

Tab.6 Analysis of the mechanism for the convergence of the development level of the Digital Silk Road club

参数	移动电话订阅量		高等教育入学率
参数	系数	$z$ 统计量	系数	$z$ 统计量
似然比指标（LR）	0.323		0.309
初始条件	-21.920^***	-3.041	-2.971^***	-1.971
经度	-0.110^**	-1.762	-0.110	-0.162
纬度	0.101^*	1.766	0.107	1.337
电子政务指数	-42.671^**	-0.447	-43.011^**	0.354
政府支持程度	-17.903	-2.042	14.054	-1.916

Tab.6 Analysis of the mechanism for the convergence of the development level of the Digital Silk Road club

参数	移动电话订阅量		高等教育入学率
参数	系数	$z$ 统计量	系数	$z$ 统计量
似然比指标（LR）	0.323		0.309
初始条件	-21.920^***	-3.041	-2.971^***	-1.971
经度	-0.110^**	-1.762	-0.110	-0.162
纬度	0.101^*	1.766	0.107	1.337
电子政务指数	-42.671^**	-0.447	-43.011^**	0.354
政府支持程度	-17.903	-2.042	14.054	-1.916

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