Abstract:

The five countries in Central Asian played an important role in the Belt and Road initiative. In this paper, we analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and coupling Relationship between resource and environment carrying capacity and economic development in these five countries, so as to provide basic research support for this region sustainable development. The results show that:(1)The resources and environment carrying capacity are relatively high in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Their economic development is relatively high in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. From 1990 to 2017, the general trend of two systems show a reverse trend. (2)The coupling degree is between 0.3-0.8, which is between the mild imbalance recession type and the intermediate coordination type. The coupling degree is the highest in Kazakhstan and the lowest in Tajikistan. The degree goes down first and then goes up after 2000.(3)The coupling types of carrying capacity and economic development is not optimal. (4)In the 1990s, the economic recession directly led to pressure reduction on the resources and environment. Although the resources and environment condition was still slowly deteriorating, but the level of Carrying Capacity was improved along with pressure reduction. There are significant spatial differences of the two system influence mechanisms among the five countries.

Key words: resources and environmental carrying capacity, coupling relationship, temporal and spatial evolutions, impulse response function, Central Asia

摘要：

资源环境与社会经济发展有效协调是区域可持续发展的重要途径。中亚五国是支撑“一带一路”互联互通的关键节点，本文建立双系统评价模型，分析中亚五国独立后资源环境承载和经济发展的时空演变与系统耦合协调特性，结果表明：1）资源环境承载水平，哈、塔、吉三国较高，经济发展水平哈国和土国较高。1990—2017年，五国双系统变化总趋势呈现反向变化趋势。2）五国资源环境承载与经济发展的耦合协调度介于0.3-0.8，处于轻度失调衰退型至中级协调型之间。空间差异呈现哈国水平最高，塔国最低状态；时间演变上，五国耦合协调度呈现先下降后上升的变化趋势，且耦合度较高，协调度较低。3）五国的资源承载和经济发展水平耦合协调类型均未达到良好匹配。塔国和吉国属于经济明显滞后水平，哈国和乌国由经济滞后向资源受损型变化，土国变化较大，由经济滞后向资源受损型变化，且滞后程度不断加深。4）20世纪90年代，中亚五国经济衰退直接导致资源环境承载压力减小，在资源环境状态任然缓慢恶化的情况下，资源环境承载总体水平有所提升。总体来说，五国之间双系统影响机制具有显著空间差异。

关键词: 资源环境承载, 耦合协调度, 时空演变, 脉冲分析, 中亚