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15 January 2024, Volume 33 Issue 1 Previous Issue   

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Research on the impacts of trade agreements on global trade flows: Based on complex network perspective Bing ZUO, Gang WU, Chen ZHANG, Shafarla NURBEKE, Runji LIN, Junyao YIN, Haowei DAI, Jiao WU 2024, 33(1): 1-17.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.20220258 Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (2158KB) ( )   This research explores the impacts of regional trade agreements on global trade flows from the perspective of symbiotic evolution. By using network analysis method on 18 years of two-ways (including import and export) of trade flow network matrixes of 136 countries/regions of the world from 2002 to 2019, the study finds that: 1) Due to the mechanism of the preferential attachment, the global trade pattern obeys the classic law of power distribution, moving from "flat head" to "steep tail" from 2002 to 2019, which results in the clustering phenomenon of small world networks. 2) The structure of the global trade network has evolved from the dual pillars led respectively by the U.S. and Germany in 2002 to the tripartite forces of China, the U.S., and Germany. The matching effect drives many peripheral countries and regions to "unite together" and then gradually integrate into the three forces through "preferential attachment", promoting the global trade flow entering a more open world. 3) Intergovernmental trade agreements, as the "visible hand" of governments, can explain 19.2% of changes in the global trade, which indicates that collaborative cooperation between countries has positive impacts on the evolution of the world trading system. 4) Under the influence of network externalities, multilateral trade agreements demonstrate greater impetus than bilateral trade agreements to global trade. Countries initiating into the multilateral trade agreements conform not only with the general trend of economic recovery after the epidemic, but it is also beneficial to the bright prospect of a community with a shared future for mankind. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the spatio-temporal evolution of APEC trade network structure and its influencing factors Maolin LIANG, Juhua HONG, Huasong LUO, Bangwen PENG, Chenran XIONG 2024, 33(1): 18-32.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.20220202 Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (2941KB) ( )   This article used social network analysis methods to explored the spatio-temporal evolution of the APEC trade network structure, the results shown that: 1)The APEC trade network has formed a "double center" trade pattern dominated by the central area of East Asia with China as the core and the central area of North America with the United States as the core. With the transfer of the centrality center and standard deviation ellipse of the trade network nodes from east to west, the trade status of East Asia and Southeast Asia is gradually increasing, while that of North America is declining; 2)China's centrality in the network has increased rapidly, and it surpassed the United States to become the first central economy in 2015, and the US's position in the network is relatively stable; 3)The APEC trade network has formed three associations in East Asia, the Americas and Southeast Asia. The strong absorption capacity of East Asian associations to Southeast Asian associations has led to the disintegration of Southeast Asian associations; 4)The circle structure of APEC trade network shows obvious characteristics of "core+sub-core+semi-periphery+edge", and the changes in the circle structure are more obvious. The United States has always been in the core circle, and China rose to the core circle in 2015. The results of QAP regression analysis show that the spatio-temporal evolution of APEC's trade network structure is mainly affected by factors such as economic scale, geographic distance, and trade freedom. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The dilemma and development of China-CEEC Cooperation under the "Three Seas Initiative" Gaojie GONG, Xue WANG 2024, 33(1): 33-42.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.2021723 Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (590KB) ( )   The "Three Seas Initiative" is a cooperation mechanism aimed at strengthening trade links, infrastructure, digital information and energy development in Central and Eastern European countries and regions. The initiative has a north-south geopolitical orientation, with a geopolitical convergence with the "Belt and Road" Initiative in the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Sea regions. However, "extraterritorial" forces such as the United States have recently been continuously involved in the "Three Seas Initiative" in an attempt to promote the highly politicized initiative to counter or even replace the China-CEEC to play a sustained role in the region. The "Three Seas Initiative" itself has a certain degree of exclusivity. Member states have very different geo-security concerns and strategic motives, and their perceptions and needs for China-CEEC are also different. However, the "Three Seas Initiative" and the "Belt and Road" Initiative are highly relevant in development concepts and goals, and they are highly connected and complimentary in terms of geography and function. In the future, the cooperation between China and CEEC in the "Three Seas" region shall not only consider the geopolitical influence of the "Three Seas Initiative", but also continue to deepen the high-quality development path of the "Three Seas Initiative", facilitating the coupling of two systems in function and policy-making. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Fractal development and spatial synergy of urban road network: A case study of India Caiwei LIU, Hong ZHANG, Shiyu TANG 2024, 33(1): 43-56.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.20222284 Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (3050KB) ( )   The road network is a large-scale space transportation channel and a small-scale space social connection bridge, and its spatio-temporal complexity emerging mechanism has been a multi-disciplinary research hotspot. Fractal is one of the important tools to explore geographical complexity. This paper collects the road networks data of the top 200 districts in India's total population, excavates the geometric and structural fractal characteristics of the road networks in each district, and analyzes the statistical correlation and spatial similarities and differences of the geometric and structural fractal characteristics. The results show that:①The spatial distribution of the road network in the sample districts in India is uneven, maintaining the pattern of dense in the south and sparse in the north, with coastal density higher than inland. The difference between the north and the south is stronger than that between coastal and inland areas, which is consistent with the urban development pattern and the driving force of urban development in India;②The road network in all districts of India has significant geometric and structural fractal characteristics. The geometric fractal dimensions of the road networks box-covering [1.229,1.857], the structural fractal dimensions [1.623,3.179],and the fractal dimensions of the volume and degree volume structures [1.941,3.539] and [2.410,3.822], respectively, indicate that the road networks construction in most districts of India is dominated by spatial spread, thickening and densification, and three-dimensional development level needs to be strengthened, especially the cross grade and multi-layer roads are limited;③The regional linkage effect of high-grade traffic corridors is obvious, which is conducive to the coordinated development of space.Key words: road network; geometric fractal; structural fractal; coordinated development; India Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Spatial differentiation and driving factors of domestic political conflicts in India Zhongxiang CAI, Zhekun HUANG, Maoyu GONG, Yong GUO, Shengming HU, Yan WANG 2024, 33(1): 57-69.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.20222146 Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (1246KB) ( )   In order to reveal the causes of the spatial differentiation of political conflicts in India from 2010 to 2021, the driving factor system was constructed and optimized by Z-score standardization and correlation analysis based on the data of political conflicts in India included in the armed conflict location and event Data Project, combined with the driving factor values of various Indian states. The geographical detector is used to detect the above preferred driving factors. The results show that :(1) All the 14 preferred driving factors have passed the significance test, among which the Muslim population ratio, the number of ethnic groups, the proportion of non-official political parties, and the population density have strong single-factor driving forces. (2) After double-factor interaction, Q value increased significantly with an average growth rate of 266% after the interaction of all driving factors. It can be seen that the domestic political conflict in India is the result of the joint action of various driving factors and has multiple superposition effects, showing "1+ 1>2 "mechanism of action; After the interaction between religious and ethnic factors and other categories, the explanation of spatial differentiation is the largest. (3) To improve the political and security situation in the region, India should give priority to solving such problems as religious confrontation, ethnic separation, unstable grain output and rational use of water resources. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on the coupling and coordination of geo-economy and population resources: A case study of the Northeast Asia Region Shuqin LI, Fei PENG, Chuntao LIU, Haoran WANG 2024, 33(1): 70-82.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.2021922 Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (1217KB) ( )   Population resources have become a central element in regional development and international geo-economic competition. With the increasing prominence of population resource issues globally, exploring the coupling and coordination relationship between geo-economics and population resources has emerged as a new research field. This study focuses on five Northeast Asian countries: China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, and Mongolia. It employs the entropy weight method and coupling coordination degree model to quantitatively analyze the development levels of geo-economics and population resources from 1999 to 2020, as well as the coupling and coordination level between them. The findings indicate that while there is a general upward trend in the development levels of geo-economics and population resources among these countries, significant differences exist between them. China shows rapid and balanced development in both aspects, whereas Japan exhibits a weaker performance. South Korea, as a developed country, maintains steady growth in geo-economics, with its population quality also showing a positive trend. In contrast, Russia and Mongolia experience slower development, with Russia demonstrating a particularly fragile growth momentum. Regarding coupling and coordination, Northeast Asian countries have undergone an adjustment phase and are currently in the initial coordination stage, moving towards more coordinated development. However, the development of population resources significantly lags behind geo-economic progress. As of 2020, except for Mongolia, which shows synchronized development characteristics, the other countries exhibit a lag in population resources. Addressing these issues, the study proposes suggestions in three areas: enhancing regional innovation, building a regional community of shared interests, and alleviating regional population aging, to assist Northeast Asian countries in meeting the challenges of coupling and coordination between geo-economics and population resources. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A demand-side perspective of evolutionary economic geography Jiahong GUO, Canfei HE, Qi GUO 2024, 33(1): 83-95.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.2021598 Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (674KB) ( )   Ignoring the influence of demand-side factors for a long time, the theory of evolutionary economic geography focuses on supply-side factors both theoretically and empirically. The geographical distribution of demand may be fundamentally different from the spatial characteristics of production. In many areas, demand also has a decisive influence on the innovation process. Supplementing the study of evolutionary economic geography based on the demand-side perspective can clarify the local development path, increasing demand economic geographic analysis will bring a series of additional local policy tools. This paper comprehensively compares the similarities and differences of evolutionary economic geography from the perspectives of the supply and demand side, systematically reviews the existing research literature in related fields, and further establishes a preliminary supplementary research framework for evolutionary economic geography combined with the demand side perspective. Finally, we provide a preliminary framework for exploring the path to achieve an organic combination of expanding domestic demand and supply-side structural reform based on the local dimension. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Resilience assessment of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration based on Multi-barrel Model Liudan JIAO, Lvwen WANG, Yu ZHANG, Ya WU 2024, 33(1): 96-106.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.2021989 Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (1024KB) ( )   This paper established an evaluation model of urban resilience level by comprehensively using the multi-barrel model, the entropy method, the catastrophe theory and the barrel theory. And starting from the three characteristics of the resilience system's resistance, absorptive capacity, recovery and adaptability, a three-stage evaluation index system of urban resilience level, including three first-level and 12 second-level indicators, is constructed. Taking China's Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as an example, this paper calculated the resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and 26 cities in the urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2019. Then, applying the barrel theory, 26 cities were analyzed over time according to the type of "Municipality directly under the Central Government-Provincial capital city-Prefecture level city". The results show that from 2010 to 2019, the overall resilience level of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has a good development trend and reached moderate resilience. However, Xuancheng, Tongling and Chizhou are the shortcomings of the resilient development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, which needs to be focused on in the future. In addition, the resilience level of cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration presents an olive-shaped structure of "large in the middle and small at both ends"; Among them, Shanghai has always been highly resilient, ranking first among 26 cities; Its three-dimensional capability heterogeneity evolution of resilience is consistent with the principle of barrel theory. Among the provincial capital cities, Hangzhou's resilience short board has been improved much faster than Nanjing and Hefei. Hence, its resilience level improvement effect is more significant. Moreover, the resilience level of the 22 prefecture-level cities has a two-level differentiation pattern of "High in the east-Low in the west". Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Logical starting point and implementation framework of urban digital transformation Tianjiao CHU 2024, 33(1): 107-118.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.20222188 Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (573KB) ( )   At present, urban development has entered the digital transformation stage. Urban digital transformation is an objective need to adapt to the rapid change of the competitive environment and the uncertainty of the living environment. Its essence is to optimize the complex giant system of the city. Through the integration and application of modern information technology and the corresponding institutional mechanism reform, the uncertainty of the system is resolved by the automatic flow of data, the efficiency of resource allocation is improved, and the new competitive advantages of the city are built. The logical starting point of urban digital transformation is to improve urban resilience. City governments should build a implementation framework to promote urban digital transformation around the core abilities of improving urban resilience development. Based on improving the city's resilience, Shanghai's urban digital transformation has gone through four stages: Digital industrialization, industrial digitalization, digital governance and data valuing. By highlighting the strategic position of data resources, it has achieved remarkable results in four aspects: digital economy, digital society, government services and urban governance. The practice in Shanghai has verified the rationality of this implementation framework. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of county shrinkage and its influencing factors in China since reform and opening up Biao ZHAO 2024, 33(1): 119-133.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.2021666 Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (2121KB) ( )   Counties are the oldest and most stable level in China's administrative regionalization system. However, in the process of China's rapid transformation from traditional society to modern society, the number of counties is shrinking on a large scale. It is of great significance to study the shrinkage of county organization system for exploring the way out of counties in the process of urbanization. In this study, nearest neighbor index and shrinkage coefficient were used to study the shrinkage of county organization system in China since the reform and opening up. The research shows that the shrinkage of counties in China is closely related to the historical process of reform and opening up, and has obvious stage characteristics. In terms of the contraction characteristics, the contraction of counties is significantly concentrated in coastal areas along the Yangtze River and cities above the sub-provincial level. Compared with the eastern region and cities above the sub-provincial level, the contraction of prefecture-level cities and counties in the central and western regions is obviously more difficult, and there are a large number of concentrated distribution of counties in some regions; On the shrinking path, the county shrinking experienced three waves of withdrawing county and setting up prefecture-level city, changing county to county-level city and changing county to municipal district, gradually advancing from coastal to inland. Due to the difference of development stage in each region, there appeared a complex situation of different shrinking types coexisting; In terms of contraction effect, county contraction has a significant positive effect on economic and social development. In terms of influencing factors, the cancellation of a county is greatly affected by the policy factors, including the change of regional development strategy, the implementation of the municipal county management system, the suspension of county to city approval, and the change of urban development policies. In addition to policy factors, the cancellation of a county is also significantly affected by its own factors, including high-level organizational structure, level of economic development, strengthening border governance, spatial location, unreasonable adjustment and callback, etc. The contraction of county organizational structure is the result of the combined action of policy factors and its own factors. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis on characteristics of urban information network structure in China --A method based on denoising and directed network Di AN, Yingjie HU, Yong WAN 2024, 33(1): 134-148.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.20220207 Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (2713KB) ( )   This research used the newly developed tool of ICEEMDAN (improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise) to decompose the Baidu index among 336 prefectural-level administrative units in China. Then this paper constructed directed networks to compare with undirected networks by analyzing the evolutionary characteristics of urban hierarchy structure, node asymmetry, spatial organization, and structural complexity in information networks between 2014 and 2019. The results show that: ① A large amount of noise interference exits in intercity Baidu search data, and noise reduction processing is necessary. After noise decomposition, the long-term trend data can better reveal the evolution characteristics of nodes. ② Considering the significant asymmetry of the information network, directed network analysis is a more effective method than undirected network analysis to identify the difference between node characteristics and their trends. ③ Node degree centrality shows a disproportional growth path, demonstrating growth dominance shifting from in-degree to out-degree at different stages. ④ Dominant flow analysis sheds light on two spatial organization patterns in the information network. One pattern is on the national scale, with disassortative network and scale-free network features. The other is on urban agglomerations and provincial scales and features assortative network and small-world network properties. The information network organization is a complex process, especially with the differences in long distance and geographic proximity interactions as two patterns indicate. This illustrates the characteristics of the spatial organization of two models, the Center Place Model and the Network Model, as well as the interaction between cyberspace and physical space. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Development process and prospect of sustainable development research supported by earth observation based on bibliometric analysis Wenzhu TU, Wenwu ZHAO, Caichun YIN, Jingyi DING 2024, 33(1): 149-162.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.20220327 Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (1040KB) ( )   In the past few decades, earth observation has experienced rapid development, which provides necessary theoretical knowledge, research means and methods for global sustainable development. By searching the Web of Science core collection database and using CiteSpace, a knowledge map tool, this study conducted a bibliometric analysis of sustainable development research based on earth observation from 1991 to 2021. This study analyzed the research progress based on the literature output trends, publishing regions and cooperation network, high-frequency terms and terms with the strongest citation bursts, and proposed future research directions. The results show that: ①The number of articles published in the field of "earth observation technology and sustainable development" is generally on the rise, which can be divided into germination stage, growth stage and rapid development stage.②There is close international cooperation in the study of earth observation technology and sustainable development, among which, United States and Germany are in a leading position in terms of the number and influence of published paper. These countries are rich in scientific research. China and other developing countries have a dominant position in the number of publications, but their international influence still needs to be improved.③At present, research focuses on the environmental protection related contents such as land use/land cover change, climate change, natural resources and water resources. In recent years, the research field has been constantly integrating artificial intelligence, mathematical statistics and other emerging methods, and the research content tends to be diversified. In the future research, it is necessary to fully achieve the supporting role of earth observation technology and contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals through a Decade of Action, and to deepen the study of earth observation data and facilitate data sharing in order to open up a new path for wide application. The combination of earth observation data with traditional statistical data should be strengthened to achieve the fully functioning of the potential of earth observation in SDGs monitoring. We can focus on international cooperation and take global action. These can help us to provide effective strategic and decision reference for the realization of the Sustainable Development Goals. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Characteristics of "population-land-industry" coordinated development of resource-based shrinking cities in China Haozhe ZHANG, Qingyuan YANG 2024, 33(1): 163-177.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.2021760 Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (1108KB) ( )   Promoting the coordinated development of "population-land-industry" in resource-based shrinking cities is the difficulty and challenge to realize regional high-quality development. This research constructed the evaluation index system of population, land and industrial development level, and used the coupling coordination model to analyze the "population-land-industry" coordinated development of 26 resource-based Shrinking Cities in China in 2008, 2013 and 2018. The results show that: (1) The development level of industrial system in resource-based cities is high, the development of land system is at the middle level, and the development of population system is low. The coordination degree of "population-land-industry" in each city is at the level of near imbalance and slight imbalance, but most cities have an upward trend; (2) There are obvious differences in the development level and coordination degree of population, land, and industry of different types of resource-based shrinking cities. From the development stage, the development level of grown-up cities is the highest, while that of recessionary cities is the lowest. In 2008 and 2013, the average coordination degree ranked as growing city > grown-up city > regenerative city > recessionary city, and in 2018, it is growing city> regenerative city > grown-up city > recessionary city. From the perspective of leading industries, the development level of oil&gas-based cities is the highest, while that of coal-based cities is the lowest. In the three years, the order of the average coordination degree is oil&gas-based city > nonmetal-based city > ferrous metal-based city > forestry-based city > coal-based cities. (3) The coordinated development model of "population-land-industry" in resource-based shrinking cities is dominated by population lag and land lag. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the relationship between PM2.5 concentration and urbanization in Central China Zeduo ZOU, Kadun TIAN, Wei ZHAO, Zhengyang LI, Zhiqiang LIU 2024, 33(1): 178-188.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.20220112 Abstract ( )   HTML ( )   PDF (1737KB) ( )   Based on the urban panel data of central China from 2010 to 2018, the PM2.5 in Central China is analyzed by using spatial analysis and other methods. Explore the temporal and spatial differences, spatial evolution characteristics and spatial correlation of concentration, and construct the Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model to test the possible EKC relationship. The results show that: ① the PM2.5 concentration in the Central China varied widely from 2010 to 2018, and the annual average PM2.5 concentration exhibited an overall fluctuating decreasing trend during the study period; ② the PM2.5 concentration in the Central China exhibited a spatial distribute on that was high in the northeastern region and low in the other regions; ③ a positive spatial correlation existed between the PM2.5 concentration and urbanization in the Central China from 2010 to 2018; ④ and there was an positive N-type EKC relationship between the PM2.5 pollution and urbanization in the Central China. This study provides a new perspective for exploring the relationship between the PM2.5 concentration and urbanization, an important reference for achieving environmental protection and sustainable urban development in the Central China, and guidance for relevant departments to formulate PM2.5 reduction policies. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics