Study on the relationship between PM2.5 concentration and urbanization in Central China

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.20220112

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the urban panel data of central China from 2010 to 2018, the PM_2.5 in Central China is analyzed by using spatial analysis and other methods. Explore the temporal and spatial differences, spatial evolution characteristics and spatial correlation of concentration, and construct the Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model to test the possible EKC relationship. The results show that: ① the PM_2.5 concentration in the Central China varied widely from 2010 to 2018, and the annual average PM_2.5 concentration exhibited an overall fluctuating decreasing trend during the study period; ② the PM_2.5 concentration in the Central China exhibited a spatial distribute on that was high in the northeastern region and low in the other regions; ③ a positive spatial correlation existed between the PM_2.5 concentration and urbanization in the Central China from 2010 to 2018; ④ and there was an positive N-type EKC relationship between the PM_2.5 pollution and urbanization in the Central China. This study provides a new perspective for exploring the relationship between the PM_2.5 concentration and urbanization, an important reference for achieving environmental protection and sustainable urban development in the Central China, and guidance for relevant departments to formulate PM_2.5 reduction policies.

Key words: PM_2.5 concentration, urbanization, evolution, Central China, EKC

摘要：

基于中国中部地区2010—2018年城市面板数据，综合运用空间分析等方法分别对中部地区PM_2.5浓度的时空差异、空间演变特征和空间相关性进行探究，并构建环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）模型，检验可能存在的EKC关系。结果表明：①2010—2018年中部地区PM_2.5浓度变化幅度差异较大，研究期间PM_2.5年均浓度整体上呈现波动下降趋势；②中部地区PM_2.5浓度呈现出东北地域高、其他地域低的空间分布；③2010—2018年中部地区城市化与PM_2.5浓度存在空间正相关关系；④中部地区PM_2.5污染与城市化存在倒“N”形环境库兹涅茨曲线关系。本研究为探索PM_2.5浓度与城市化的演变关系提供了新的研究视角，为实现中部地区环境保护与城市健康可持续发展提供借鉴，也可以为相关部门制定降低PM_2.5的相关政策提供指导。

关键词: PM_2.5浓度, 城市化, 演变, 中部地区, 环境库兹涅茨曲线

Zeduo ZOU, Kadun TIAN, Wei ZHAO, Zhengyang LI, Zhiqiang LIU. Study on the relationship between PM_2.5 concentration and urbanization in Central China[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(1): 178-188.

邹泽铎, 田卡吨, 赵威, 李政旸, 刘志强. 中国中部地区PM_2.5 浓度与城市化的关系演变研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(1): 178-188.

Figures/Tables 9

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空气质量	2010年		2018年
空气质量	城市名称	数量	城市名称	数量
优	—	0	—	0
良	三门峡、十堰和张家界等24个城市	24	中部地区60个其它城市	60
轻度污染	中部地区28个其它城市	28	郑州、鹤壁和淮北等20个城市	20
中度污染	郑州、淮北、武汉等28个城市	28	—	0
重度污染	—	0	—	0

空气质量	2010年		2018年
空气质量	城市名称	数量	城市名称	数量
优	—	0	—	0
良	三门峡、十堰和张家界等24个城市	24	中部地区60个其它城市	60
轻度污染	中部地区28个其它城市	28	郑州、鹤壁和淮北等20个城市	20
中度污染	郑州、淮北、武汉等28个城市	28	—	0
重度污染	—	0	—	0

变量类型	一级指标层	二级指标层	单位
被解释变量	PM_2.5空气污染物	PM_2.5浓度	μg/m³
核心解释变量	城市化水平	城市人口密度	%
		城市人口密度二次方	%
		城市人口密度三次方	%
控制变量	人口聚集	常住人口	人
	经济条件	人均GDP	元
	工业化水平	第二产业占比	%
	产业结构优化	第三产业占比	%
	城市扩张	城市建成区面积	km²
	地面扬尘	年降尘量均值	吨/km²

变量类型	一级指标层	二级指标层	单位
被解释变量	PM_2.5空气污染物	PM_2.5浓度	μg/m³
核心解释变量	城市化水平	城市人口密度	%
		城市人口密度二次方	%
		城市人口密度三次方	%
控制变量	人口聚集	常住人口	人
	经济条件	人均GDP	元
	工业化水平	第二产业占比	%
	产业结构优化	第三产业占比	%
	城市扩张	城市建成区面积	km²
	地面扬尘	年降尘量均值	吨/km²

变量	统计量
PM_2.5浓度	627.934 1
人口密度	254.514 5
人口密度二次方	231.185 1
人口密度三次方	314.511 5
常住人口（人）	540.053 4
人均GDP	519.858 3
第二产业比重	479.963 2
第三产业比重	638.617 6
建成区面积	296.941 1
年降尘量均值	521.913 9