主管单位:中国科学技术协会
主办单位:中国地理学会
承办单位:华东师范大学

世界地理研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 12-24.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.01.2019304

• 世界政治与经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

南美洲恐怖袭击事件时空演变研究

申玉坤1(), 骆华松2,3(), 洪菊花1,3, 张路1   

  1. 1.云南师范大学地理学部,昆明 650500
    2.云南师范大学研究生院,昆明 650500
    3.中国西南地缘环境与边疆发展协同创新中心,昆明 650500
  • 收稿日期:2019-06-20 修回日期:2019-10-01 出版日期:2021-01-09 发布日期:2021-04-09
  • 通讯作者: 骆华松
  • 作者简介:申玉坤(1997-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事地缘环境与边疆安全研究,E-mail: 1443301164@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41671131)

Study on spatio-temporal evolution of terrorist attacks in South America

Yukun SHEN1(), Huasong LUO2,3(), Juhua HONG1,3, Lu ZHANG1   

  1. 1.Faculty of Geographical, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
    2.Graduate School, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
    3.Collaborative Innovation Center for Geopolitical Setting of Southwest China and Borderland Development, Kunming 650500, China
  • Received:2019-06-20 Revised:2019-10-01 Online:2021-01-09 Published:2021-04-09
  • Contact: Huasong LUO

摘要:

采用核密度估计法和重心分析对1970—2017年南美洲恐怖袭击事件时空演变过程进行了分析。结果表明:1980—1999年是南美洲恐怖袭击事件的高发期;南美洲恐怖袭击事件空间分异显著,1970—1979年主要集中于哥伦比亚和阿根廷,高发期主要集中分布于哥伦比亚、秘鲁、智利,2000年以来主要集中分布于哥伦比亚,近年委内瑞拉、巴拉圭的恐怖袭击活动也有抬头之势。南美洲恐怖袭击事件的时空演变是由地理环境、地缘政治博弈、经济社会环境、毒品贸易、政府的应对策略和社会控制体系、武器易获得、边界管控等多因素综合作用的结果。基于上述结论和维护中国在南美洲利益的需要,提出中国应加强与南美洲国家的反恐合作。受南美洲恐怖袭击活动有跨境渗透现象且呈现“毒恐合流”现象的启示,认为中国应警惕东南亚恐怖袭击活动是否会向境内渗透并向“毒恐合流”方向发展。

关键词: 恐怖袭击事件, 南美洲, 时空演变, “毒恐同流”

Abstract:

The spatial-temporal evolution of the 1970-2017 South American terrorist attacks was analyzed by using Kernel Density Estimation and gravity center analysis methods. The results show that: the years 1980-1989 and 1990-1999, were the periods of the high incidence of terrorist attacks in South America; the difference in spatial distribution of South American terrorist attacks was significant. From 1970-1979, they were mainly concentrated in Colombia and Argentina, while the high incidence was mainly concentrated in Colombia, Peru and Chile. Since 2000, it has been mainly concentrated in Colombia. In recent years, terrorist attacks in Venezuela and Paraguay have also risen. The spatio-temporal evolution of terrorist attacks in South America is the result of multiple factors including geographical environment, geopolitical, economic and social environment, drug trade, government's coping strategies and social control system, easy access to weapons, border control, etc. Based on the above conclusions and the need to safeguard China's interests in South America, This study suggests that China should strengthen its counter-terrorism cooperation with South American countries. Inspired by the cross-border infiltration of South American terrorist attacks and the phenomenon of "Terrorism and Drug Combined", This study suggests that China should be alert to the infiltration of terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia and the possibility of the "Terrorism and Drug Combined".

Key words: terrorist attacks, South America, spatial-temporal evolution, "Terrorism and Drug Combined"