1992—2021年刚果（金）武装冲突的时空演化特征及影响因素分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.10.20230034

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

刚果（金）是非洲的资源能源大国，拥有巨大的发展潜力，但长期受制于武装冲突的负面影响。以刚果（金）1992—2021年间的武装冲突为研究对象，综合运用核密度分析、多距离空间聚类分析、标准差椭圆的GIS空间方法，探究刚果（金）武装冲突的空间格局、演变特征和产生原因。研究结果显示：近30年来，刚果（金）的武装冲突呈现不断集聚的空间特征。从空间结构变化看，刚果（金）武装冲突的空间格局由“一带六核”演变为“一带单核”，始终以北基伍省、伊图里省和南基伍省为核心；从空间集聚程度看，刚果（金）武装冲突的范围有所缩小，但集聚程度不断提升；从空间扩散方向看，刚果（金）武装冲突扩散方向由“东-西”向演变为“东北-西南”向，空间扩散方向的指向性显著。本文认为，族际矛盾、国际干涉和资源利益是造成刚果（金）武装冲突的主要原因。对刚果（金）武装冲突空间格局和演变趋势的分析，可以为中国企业在刚果（金）的投资行为和安全风险防范提供信息参考。

关键词: 刚果（金）, 武装冲突, 空间格局, 演变特征, 非洲

Abstract:

Democratic Republic of Congo has sizeable development potential with abundant resources and energy in Africa, but it is subject to the negative impact of armed conflicts for a long time. Taking the armed conflicts of DRC from 1992 to 2021 as the research object, this paper comprehensively uses GIS models including standard deviation ellipse, nearest neighbor index, kernel density estimation and multi-distance spatial cluster analysis to comb the spatial pattern and evolution characteristics of the armed conflicts in the DRC. The results show that the armed conflicts in the DRC have always presented the spatial characteristics of agglomeration in the past 30 years. From the perspective of spatial structure change, the spatial pattern of armed conflicts in the DRC has changed from "one belt, six cores" to "one belt, one core", with North Kivu, Ituri and South Kivu provinces as the core. From the perspective of spatial agglomeration degree, the scope of armed conflicts in the DRC has been reduced, but the agglomeration degree has been increasing. From the perspective of spatial diffusion direction, the diffusion direction of the armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo has changed from "east-west" to "northeast-southwest", showing a significant directivity in the spatial diffusion direction. This paper also argues that geography, resources, society and international factors are the primary causes of armed conflicts in the DRC.

Key words: Democratic Republic of Congo, armed conflict, spatial pattern, evolutionary feature, Africa

孔凡沛, 胡洋, 李安林. 1992—2021年刚果（金）武装冲突的时空演化特征及影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(10): 31-42.

Fanpei KONG, Yang HU, Anlin LI. Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) from 1992 to 2021[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(10): 31-42.

图/表 6

图1 刚果（金）行政区划注：此图基于国家自然资源部标准地图服务系统的标准地图（审图号：GS（2020）4391号）绘制，底图无修改，后同。

Fig.1 Administrative divisions of the Democratic Republic of Congo

图2 1992—2021年刚果（金）各类型武装冲突年际分布

Fig.2 Inter-annual distribution of various types of armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 1992 to 2021

图3 1992—2021年刚果（金）武装冲突核密度分析图

Fig.3 Nuclear density analysis of armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo， 1992-2021

表1 1992—2021年刚果（金）各省、市武装冲突统计 (次)

Tab.1 Statistics of armed conflicts in provinces and municipalities of the Democratic Republic of Congo, 1992-2021

改革前	改革后	1992—2001	2002—2011	2012—2021	总计	改革前	改革后	1992—2001	2002—2011	2012—2021	总计
班顿杜省	马伊恩东贝省	0	5	7	12	西开赛省	开赛省	4	1	107	112
	奎卢省	1	0	2	3	西开赛省	中开赛省	23	4	146	173
	宽果省	2	0	0	2	东开赛省	洛马米省	0	0	5	5
下刚果省	中孔果省	11	23	21	55		桑库鲁省	5	0	1	6
东方省	伊图里省	50	151	761	962		东开赛省	17	9	44	70
	上韦莱省	6	225	53	284	加丹加省	坦噶尼喀省	75	9	99	183
	乔波省	35	3	9	47		上洛马米省	7	13	16	36
	下韦莱省	11	53	19	83		卢阿拉巴省	8	0	4	12
赤道省	南乌班吉省	16	1	0	17		上加丹加省	13	5	28	46
	北乌班吉省	11	0	0	11	马涅马省		27	22	17	66
	蒙加拉省	8	1	0	9	南基伍省		235	251	415	901
	楚阿帕省	9	1	6	16	北基伍省		231	550	1 929	2 710
	赤道省	46	2	4	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
金沙萨市		7	12	36	55	合计	—	858	1 341	3 729	5 928

图4 1992—2021年刚果（金）武装冲突多距离空间聚类结果

Fig.4 Multi-distance spatial clustering result of armed conflicts in Democratic Republic of Congo，1992-2021

图5 1992—2021年刚果（金）武装冲突的标准差椭圆及重心迁移轨迹

Fig.5 Standard deviation ellipses and center of gravity migration trajectories for armed conflict in the DRC， 1992-2021

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