肯尼亚人口分布空间格局演化及影响因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.06.20222215

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于肯尼亚四期全国人口普查数据，运用探索性空间数据分析、标准差椭圆、人口偏移-份额等方法，刻画了1989—2019年肯尼亚47个行政单元人口分布的空间格局演变特征，并运用地理探测器模型分析了其影响因素。结果表明：①研究期内肯尼亚人口密度的分布格局较为稳定，表现为西南高、东北低，与经济发展水平的分布格局相吻合；②人口空间演变趋势以正偏移增长和负偏移增长类型为主，人口分布中心出现在首都内罗毕西北部，整体呈现出向东南方向迁移的特征；③自然因素和社会经济因素共同影响着肯尼亚人口分布的空间演变格局。在高程、气候、降水、经济发展水平和交通基础设施建设的影响下，大致形成以内罗毕、维多利亚湖沿岸的基苏木以及沿海第一大港蒙巴萨为核心的人口高密度集群。

关键词: 人口空间分布, 空间格局演化, 影响因素, 肯尼亚, 非洲

Abstract:

Based on the data of Kenya's four national population censuses, exploratory spatial data analysis, standard deviation ellipse, and population shift-share model were used to analyze the spatial pattern evolution characteristics of the population distribution of 47 administrative units in Kenya from 1989 to 2019. Then, this paper employed geographic detector to further analyze the influencing factors. The results show that: ① During the study period, the distribution pattern of population density in Kenya is relatively stable, showing high southwest and low northeast. ② There are obvious spatial differences in population offset growth in different cities, mainly positive offset growth and negative offset growth types. And the population distribution center is northwest of the capital Nairobi and continues to migrate southeast. ③ Natural and socio-economic factors jointly influence the spatial evolution pattern of population distribution in Kenya. Under the influence of elevation, climate, precipitation, economic development level and transportation infrastructure construction, the population is concentrated in a few areas along the southwest and southeast coasts of Kenya. Kenya has roughly formed a high-density population cluster centered on Nairobi, the national administrative center, Kisumu on the shores of Lake Victoria, and Mombasa, the largest port on the coast.

Key words: population spatial distribution, evolution of spatial pattern, influencing factors, Kenya, Africa

胡彬, 刘军. 肯尼亚人口分布空间格局演化及影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(6): 64-75.

Bin HU, Jun LIU. Research on the evolution of spatial pattern of population distribution and its influencing factors in Kenya[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(6): 64-75.

图/表 8

图1 肯尼亚区位及行政区划图注：该图基于国家测绘局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS（2016）1667号的标准地图制作，底图无修改，下图同。

Fig.1 The location and administrative division of Kenya

表1 1989—2019年肯尼亚人口密度分级单元面积和人口比例统计表(%)

Tab.1 The subarea and population proportion of different population density levels in Kenya during 1989-2019

密度等级	1989年		1999年		2009年		2019年
密度等级	人口占比	面积占比	人口占比	面积占比	人口占比	面积占比	人口占比	面积占比
集聚核心区	7.671	0.160	9.729	0.160	10.563	0.160	13.032	0.257
高度集聚区	13.742	1.000	16.064	1.440	22.471	2.610	26.618	3.646
中度集聚区	31.251	4.580	28.403	5.070	27.043	6.330	28.257	7.930
一般过渡区	24.532	7.100	19.801	6.180	13.431	5.670	10.076	6.515
低度集聚区	4.200	1.930	8.235	5.510	7.320	7.040	8.575	11.960
相对稀疏区	5.682	5.471	8.276	13.430	10.301	18.200	4.210	9.702
绝对稀疏区	12.922	79.759	9.492	68.220	8.870	59.990	9.232	59.990

图2 1989—2019年肯尼亚人口空间分布

Fig.2 Spatial distribution maps of population in Kenya during 1989-2019

表2 肯尼亚人口分布的全局莫兰指数

Tab.2 The Global Moran’s I of population distribution in Kenya

年份	Moran’s I	E（I）	Z-Score	P-Value
1989	0.186	－0.021	3.914	0.000
1999	0.160	－0.021	3.547	0.000
2009	0.098	－0.021	2.423	0.015
2019	0.127	－0.021	3.116	0.001

图3 1989—2019年肯尼亚人口分布冷热点变化

Fig.3 Variation of hot-spot and cold-spot regions distribution of population in Kenya during 1989-2019

图4 1989—2019年肯尼亚人口分布迁移特征

Fig.4 Population distribution and migration characteristics of Kenya during 1989-2019

图5 1989—2019年肯尼亚人口偏移增情况

Fig.5 Regional population growth shift of Kenya during 1989-2019

表3 肯尼亚人口分布格局影响因子探测结果

Tab.3 Factor detection results of population distribution pattern in Kenya

指标	1989年		1999年		2009年		2019年
指标	q值	排序	q值	排序	q值	排序	q值	排序
X₁	0.530^*	1	0.519^**	1	0.542^**	1	0.530^**	1
X₂	0.295^**	8	0.284^*	8	0.332^**	7	0.325^*	5
X₃	0.461^***	4	0.466^***	4	0.485^***	4	0.431^***	4
X₄	0.342^*	7	0.321^*	7	0.304^*	8	0.270^*	8
X₅	0.497^***	3	0.492^***	3	0.504^***	3	0.490^***	3
X₆	0.387^**	5	0.343^***	6	0.358^***	6	0.305^***	6
X₇	0.381^***	6	0.387^***	5	0.402^**	5	0.298^***	7
X₈	0.504^***	2	0.508^***	2	0.521^***	2	0.507^***	2

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