中国周边区域联合军演时空格局演化及驱动机制研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.06.20240904

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

密切关注中国周边区域联合军演的时空格局演化及驱动机制，积极应对域外大国在该区域带来的军事挑战，对维护中国周边地缘安全及推进“一带一路”建设具有重要意义。基于哈佛联合军演数据集，采用社会网络分析和地理空间分析等方法，深入探讨1990—2022年中国周边区域联合军演时空演变格局及驱动机制。结果发现：①中国周边区域联合军演呈现出发展快、参演国多、次数频繁、规模大等特点，南海成为军演主要的活动区，双边军演向多边军演转变。②研究期内，中国周边区域联合军演网络密度与网络关系度呈现出明显的上升态势，该区域内国家军事合作日益密切，整体空间结构趋向稳固。③联合军演网络的社团分布呈现空间集聚与空间紊乱并存的特征，以美国为主导的社团与以俄罗斯、中国为主导的社团边界愈发清晰，而南亚与东南亚国家的社团归属则复杂多变。④从联合军演的驱动机制来看，地缘战略位置是支撑力，国家安全风险感知、军队现代化建设是驱动力，大国战略诉求、区域地缘政治风险是推动力。

关键词: 联合军演, 时空格局, 网络结构, 中国周边区域

Abstract:

Paying close attention to the spatio-temporal pattern of joint military exercises in China's neighboring regions and the driving mechanism, and actively responding to the military challenges posed by extraterritorial powers in the region are of great significance to the maintenance of China's neighboring geopolitical security and the construction of the "Belt and Road". Based on the Harvard Joint Military Exercise (JME) dataset, we use social network analysis and geospatial analysis to explore the spatial and temporal evolution of JMEs in China's neighboring regions and their driving mechanisms from 1990 to 2022. The results found that: ① China and its neighboring regions' joint military exercises show the characteristics of fast development, more participating countries, frequent times, large scale, etc., the South China Sea has become the main activity area of the exercises, and the transformation of bilateral military exercises to multilateral ones is characterized significantly. ② During the period of 1990—2022, the network density and the number of network relationships show a clear upward trend, with countries in the region increasingly cooperating militarily and the overall spatial structure becoming more solid. ③ The distribution of associations in the joint military exercise network shows the coexistence of spatial agglomeration and spatial disorder, with the U.S.-dominated community and the Russian- and Chinese-led Central Asian community having increasingly clear boundaries, while the associations of South and Southeast Asian countries are complex and variable. ④ In terms of the driving mechanism, the geostrategic location is the supporting force, the perception of national security risks, military modernization and construction are the driving forces, and the strategic aspirations of great powers and regional geopolitical risks are the impetus.

Key words: joint military exercises, spatio-temporal patterns, network structure, China's neighboring regions

李松祥, 李灿松, 葛旭瑞, 周绍聪, 高铭爽, 钱镜帆. 中国周边区域联合军演时空格局演化及驱动机制研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2026, 35(6): 19-35.

Songxiang LI, Cansong LI, Xurui GE, Shaocong ZHOU, Mingshuang GAO, Jingfan QIAN. Evolution of spatio-temporal patterns and driving mechanisms of joint military exercises in China's neighboring regions[J]. World Regional Studies, 2026, 35(6): 19-35.

图/表 13

图1 联合军演实施路径示意图

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of the implementation path of joint military exercise

图2 中国周边区域联合军演参演国区位图注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务系统的标准地图［审图号：GS （2016）1663号］绘制，底图无修改。以下地图同。

Fig. 2 Location map of participating countries in joint military exercises in China's neighboring regions

表1 中国周边区域联合军演主要参演国

Tab. 1 Major participating countries in joint military exercises in China's neighboring regions

区域	国家
东亚	日本、韩国、蒙古、中国
东南亚	缅甸、泰国、柬埔寨、老挝、越南、菲律宾、马来西亚、新加坡、印度尼西亚
南亚	印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国
欧洲	俄罗斯
大洋洲	澳大利亚
北美洲	美国
中亚	塔吉克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、哈萨克斯坦

图3 1990—2022年中国周边国家联合军演参演次数

Fig. 3 Number of times China’s neighboring countries participated in joint military exercises （1990-2022）

图4 中国周边主要联合军演参演国参演次数时空演化

Fig. 4 Spatio-temporal evolution of joint military exercise participations of major countries in China's vicinity

图5 1990—2022年参演次数重心迁移与标准差椭圆图

Fig. 5 Centroid migration and standard deviational ellipse of participation counts over 1990-2022

图6 中国周边区域联合军演的网络结构示意图

Fig. 6 Schematic diagram of the network structure of joint military exercises in China's neighboring regions

表2 中国周边区域联合军演网络结构特征

Tab. 2 Characteristics of the network structure of joint military exercises in China's neighboring regions

结构特征	1990年	1995年	2000年	2005年	2010年	2015年	2022年
网络密度	0.08	0.05	0.07	0.23	0.38	0.39	0.48
网络等级	0.40	0.98	0.52	0.45	0.18	0.10	0.46
网络效率	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.71	0.68	0.76
网络关系度	0.17	0.31	0.37	0.74	0.91	0.82	0.91

图7 中国周边区域联合军演参演国的社区分类注：不同颜色表示不同社区，颜色无具体含义。

Fig. 7 Communities of countries participating in joint military exercises in the region around China

表3 2022年社区分类网络结构特征

Tab. 3 Characteristics of the community classification network in 2022

结构特征	整体网络	社区一	社区二
网络密度	0.48	0.71	0.16
平均聚类系数	0.53	0.75	0.35
平均路径长度	2.04	1.29	1.93

图8 中国周边区域联合军演驱动机制图

Fig. 8 Diagram of the mechanism driving joint military exercises in China's neighboring regions

图9 2010—2023年中国周边主要国家军费开支状况

Fig. 9 Military expenditure of major countries neighboring China from 2010 to 2023

表4 东盟同大国间主要联合军演活动信息

Tab. 4 Information on major joint military exercises between ASEAN and major powers

时间	军演名称	主要参演国	地点
2018.10	“Maritime Exercise-2018”演习	中国、东盟成员国	中国湛江
2019.9	“AUMX”演习	美国、东盟成员国	泰国湾
2023.5	“AIME-23”演习	印度、东盟成员国	新加坡
2023.9	“ASEAN Solidarity Exercise”演习	东盟成员国	巴淡岛

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