澳门回归以来的人口增长与集聚分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.09.20240992

世界地理研究 ›› 2026, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (9): 178-191.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.09.20240992

• 粤港澳大湾区研究 • 上一篇

澳门回归以来的人口增长与集聚分析

孙澍¹(), 戚伟²^,³(), 陈刚⁴

^1.广东金融学院金融数学与统计学院，广州 510520
^2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室，北京 100101
^3.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院，北京 100049
^4.江西财经大学数字经济学院，南昌 330013

收稿日期:2024-11-12 修回日期:2025-04-14 出版日期:2026-09-15 发布日期:2026-10-08
通讯作者: 戚伟
作者简介:孙澍（1986—），男，助理研究员，博士，研究方向为经济地理与区域经济，E-mail：sunshu@gduf.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(42171237);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD26CYJ52);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD25YYJ09)

Population growth and agglomeration in Macao since its return to the Motherland

Shu SUN¹(), Wei QI²^,³(), Gang CHEN⁴

^1.School of Financial Mathematics and Statistics, Guangdong University of Finance, Guangzhou 510520, China
^2.Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
^3.College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
^4.School of Digital Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China

Received:2024-11-12 Revised:2025-04-14 Online:2026-09-15 Published:2026-10-08
Contact: Wei QI

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文基于2001—2021年澳门人口普查数据，结合人口密度模型和空间分析方法，研究了澳门自回归以来的人口增长、空间分布特征及影响因素。结果表明：①澳门人口在过去20年间持续增长，年均增长率达2.29%，外来人口已成为推动人口增长和人口结构多元化的主要力量。②空间分布上，澳门人口呈现由北向南的扩展趋势，南部新开发区域逐渐缓解了澳门半岛的人口扩展压力，最终形成了“南拓北稳”的人口空间发展格局。③不同来源地人口的空间分布特征差异显著：澳门本地居民逐渐向南扩展，内地人口向新开发区聚集，香港和台湾地区人口分布相对均衡，东南亚国家人口集中于北部博彩业和服务业密集区域。④澳门人口的增长和空间集聚受多重因素的综合影响，包括经济发展、区位条件、政府政策及基础设施建设等，其中博彩、旅游与服务业的繁荣是推动人口增长的核心动力，而新城开发、跨境交通网络升级与人才引进政策则促进了人口结构的优化与空间布局的调整。基于研究结论，建议进一步优化新城功能布局，提升人口承载力；改善高密度区域居住环境，缓解人口过度集聚；深化跨境合作，促进区域联动与人口流动优化；加强人才引进与培养，提高澳门人口质量，推动城市可持续发展。

关键词: 人口分布, 人口迁移, 人口增长, 澳门, 粤港澳大湾区

Abstract:

This study analyzes the population growth, spatial distribution characteristics, and influencing factors of Macao since its return to China, based on census data from 2001 to 2021 and utilizing population density models and spatial analysis methods. The findings reveal that:① Macao's population has continuously increased over the past two decades, with an average annual growth rate of 2.29%, primarily driven by the influx of non-local residents, which has also contributed to greater population diversity; ②In terms of spatial distribution, the population has expanded southward, with newly developed areas in the southern region gradually absorbing the population pressure from the Macao Peninsula, forming a "southward expansion with northern

孙澍, 戚伟, 陈刚. 澳门回归以来的人口增长与集聚分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2026, 35(9): 178-191.

Shu SUN, Wei QI, Gang CHEN. Population growth and agglomeration in Macao since its return to the Motherland[J]. World Regional Studies, 2026, 35(9): 178-191.

图/表 8

图1 澳门人口增长情况与主要阶段划分

Fig.1 Population growth and key phases of Macao

图2 2001—2021年按来源地分的澳门人口构成

Fig.2 Composition of Macao’s population by place of origin （2001-2021）

图3 澳门不同来源地人口五年期增速

Fig. 3 Five-year growth rate of Macao's population by place of origin

表1 2001—2021年澳门人口结构指数变化

Tab. 1 Changes in Macao's population structure index (2001-2021)

指数	2001年	2011年	2021年
不均衡指数	0.097 8	0.096 2	0.086 8
集聚指数	0.705 1	0.677 5	0.620 9

图4 2001—2021年澳门人口密度重心迁移及标准差椭圆分布图注：地图底图来源于2015年国务院公布的《中华人民共和国澳门特别行政区行政区域图》，底图无修改，下同。

Fig.4 Spatial shift of population density center and standard deviation ellipse distribution in Macao， 2001-2021

表2 澳门人口密度空间重心坐标

Tab.2 Spatial coordinates of population density center in Macao

年份	经度	纬度
2001	113.549 32E	22.195 27N
2011	113.549 64E	22.194 35N
2021	113.549 71E	22.193 68N

图5 2001—2021年澳门人口密度空间分布格局

Fig.5 Spatial distribution patterns of population density in Macao （2001-2021）

图6 2001—2021年不同来源地在澳人口密度空间分布图

Fig.6 Spatial distribution of population density by origin in Macao （2001—2021）

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澳门回归以来的人口增长与集聚分析

Population growth and agglomeration in Macao since its return to the Motherland

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