主管单位：中国科学技术协会
主办单位：中国地理学会
承办单位：华东师范大学
世界地理研究

世界地理研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (5): 1-10.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479

• 世界政治与经济 •    下一篇

“一带一路”倡议背景下亚投行设立对中国海外投资的影响研究

王丰龙1,2(), 司月芳1,3()   

  1. 1.华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心，上海 200062
    2.华东师范大学城市发展研究院，上海 200062
    3.华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院，上海 200062
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-11 修回日期:2018-08-03 出版日期:2019-10-15 发布日期:2020-03-27
  • 通讯作者: 司月芳
  • 作者简介:王丰龙（1988-），男，副教授，从事政治地理、幸福感和长江经济带等研究，E-mail：flwang@iud.ecnu.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41601144);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(19YJC790138)

A research on the effects of AIIB on Chinese OFDI in the context of the "B&R" Initiative

Fenglong WANG1,2(), Yuefang SI1,3()   

  1. 1.The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
    2.Institute of Urban Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
    3.School of Urban & Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:2018-04-11 Revised:2018-08-03 Online:2019-10-15 Published:2020-03-27
  • Contact: Yuefang SI

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摘要：

2008年全球金融危机以来，中国对外直接投资迅速增长；近年来“一带一路”倡议进一步推动了中国企业的海外投资。在此背景下，很多研究探讨了中国对外直接投资的影响因素。然而，鲜有研究关注亚投行对中国海外投资区位选择的叠加影响。本文基于全球130个国家的数据，运用面板回归和双重差分等模型，考察中国对“一带一路”沿线国家和非“一带一路”沿线国家投资的影响因素，着重分析亚投行设立对中国海外投资的影响。研究发现，亚投行对于中国对“一带一路”沿线国家和非“一带一路”沿线国家投资的影响有所差异——在“一带一路”沿线国家中，中国海外投资更多集中在亚投行成员国；在非“一带一路”沿线国家中，中国向亚投行国家和非亚投行国家的对外直接投资没有显著差异。这表明，“一带一路”沿线的亚投行成员国是中国“一带一路”沿线海外投资的主要目的地。这可能是由于亚投行国家作为出资方，其金融和投资环境更为优越、对中国投资更为友好，因此对于推动“一带一路”建设更为积极，对中国海外投资的吸引力更强。此外，东道国GDP和制度环境对中国在“一带一路”沿线国家的投资也有重要影响，而地理距离、技术水平、自然资源和贸易联系的影响不大。

关键词: 对外直接投资, 区位, 制度, “一带一路”倡议, 亚投行, 双重差分模型

Abstract:

After the global financial crisis in 2008, China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has increased dramatically and further got promoted by issuing of the Belt and Road Initiative (B&R) and foundation of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Accordingly, influencing factors of China's OFDI have drawn much attention from both economists and geographers. However, few studies have examined the combined influences of the B&R Initiative and AIIB on Chinese OFDI. This paper aims to help narrow this gap by examining the factors influencing Chinese OFDI in countries along the B&R. Although we do not find evidence of significant impacts of AIIB policies on Chinese OFDI from the difference-in-difference model, we still find that Chinese OFDI is more likely to flow in member countries of the AIIB along the B&R; while the difference in Chinese OFDI between members and non-members of AIIB is insignificant in other regions. This finding suggests that the member countries of AIIB have better financial and economic environment, more friendly policies for Chinese investment and more expectations on the development of the B&R and thus more attractive for Chinese overseas investment. This study also shows that GDP and institutions of the host countries are important factors of Chinese OFDI in countries along the B&R. However, some other factors found important for OFDI in existing literature, such as geographical distance, technology, natural resource and trade, seem to have few effects on Chinese OFDI in countries along the B&R.

Key words: Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), the "Belt and Road" Initiative (B&R), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), location, institutions, difference-in-difference model